John Helmer: Whose Ship Is Sinking? The Hidden War Between US–NATO and Russia–China–Iran
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Summary
Takeaways
- ❖Donald Trump's policy aims to shorten the Iran war and open the Strait of Hormuz quickly.
- ❖The US initiated a phone call with Putin to secure Russian non-interference in the Iran war and prevent Russian oil sales to China.
- ❖Putin's readout of the call included a 'positive assessment' of US negotiators Vitkov and Kushner, indicating a willingness for a deal.
- ❖The US intends to damage China significantly by disrupting its oil imports, viewing China as the 'biggest loser' in a prolonged Hormuz closure.
- ❖Trump offered to lift sanctions on Russian oil sales to Europe, provided Russia does not sell excess oil to China.
- ❖The host and guest debate the existence and influence of pro-American factions within Russia, China, and India, who might prioritize separate deals with the US.
- ❖The closure of the Strait of Hormuz is projected to cost China at least 1% of its GDP and cause significant inflation.
- ❖India has sided with Israel and the US in the conflict, further demonstrating a fractured 'BRICS' alliance.
Insights
1US Strategy: Shorten Iran War, Isolate China
Trump's administration is pursuing a strategy to quickly conclude the war with Iran while simultaneously using the conflict to weaken China. This involves offering Russia concessions in Ukraine in exchange for Russia's non-assistance to Iran and its agreement to not sell oil to China.
Trump initiated a call with Putin, asking Russia to 'refrain from lengthening the war by helping Iran' and offering 'increased US support for shortening the war in the Ukraine.' (, , )
2Russia's Internal Divisions and Potential Deal with US
Despite public statements of solidarity, there are political factions within Moscow, notably represented by Kirill Dmitriev, who are pro-American and pro-European. This faction is reportedly open to a deal with the US that would prioritize Russian interests in Ukraine and European oil markets over supporting Iran or China.
Putin's readout of the call included a 'positive assessment of the mediation efforts' by Trump's team, including Vitkov and Kushner, who are seen by Iran as 'deception agents.' This indicates Putin's endorsement of the Dmitriev faction. (, , )
3US Leverages Hormuz Closure to Damage China
The US views the closure of the Strait of Hormuz as a strategic asset to inflict severe economic damage on China, which is heavily reliant on oil imports through this route. Trump's offer to open Hormuz as a 'gift to China' is framed as a tactical move to gain Chinese cooperation or further isolate it from Russia.
The US 'is not only aiming at Iran, it has another war to fight against China.' The closure of Hormuz means China 'loses most' due to its 11-12 million barrels/day import need, with 5 million lost. Trump's tweet about opening Hormuz is a 'gift from the United States to China.' (, , )
4Fragile Alliances and Self-Interest Among Non-Western Powers
The war has exposed significant rifts and self-serving interests among countries often perceived as a united anti-Western bloc (Russia, China, India, Iran). Factions within these nations are willing to make separate deals with the US, potentially at the expense of their allies, to secure their own short-to-medium term advantages.
The war 'has broken them apart.' India has 'taken Israel's side and the US side.' China's Foreign Minister Wang Yi 'barely mentioned Iran' and 'endorsed positively a welcome for President Trump to come to China.' (, , )
Bottom Line
The US is deliberately using the Iran conflict and the potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz as a weapon to inflict economic and political damage on China, even if it causes temporary price increases for US consumers.
This reveals a calculated, long-term US strategy to pivot from the Middle East to a direct confrontation with China, using proxy conflicts and economic leverage to achieve its goals.
Businesses and governments should reassess supply chain vulnerabilities and energy security, anticipating a global economic landscape where major powers are willing to weaponize trade routes and energy flows.
The perceived 'alliance' between Russia, China, and Iran is highly conditional and susceptible to internal political factions prioritizing national self-interest over collective solidarity, especially when offered concessions by the US.
This challenges the notion of a monolithic anti-Western bloc and suggests that US diplomatic efforts can still exploit internal divisions to achieve strategic aims.
Analysts should focus on internal political dynamics and factional struggles within major powers, rather than assuming unified foreign policy stances based on external alliances.
Lessons
- Monitor Russian oil trade flows, particularly any shifts from China to Europe, as an indicator of the effectiveness of US-Russia negotiations.
- Evaluate the economic impact of a prolonged Strait of Hormuz closure on East Asian economies (China, Japan, South Korea) and its potential to trigger internal political instability.
- Assess the political influence of pro-Western or pragmatic factions within non-Western powers, as their willingness to cut separate deals could significantly alter geopolitical alignments.
Quotes
"Empires don't end so quickly. And they don't end even when their emperors go mad."
"Trump wanted, it's clear from the text, to ask Putin to refrain from lengthening the war by helping Iran."
"The US is not only aiming at Iran, it has another war to fight against China."
"From a US point of view, the more trouble it can generate inside China is a war aim, a strategic aim."
"The evidence today is Trump asked for the deal and I'd say from Usherov's readout he got it."
Q&A
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