Nima R. Alkhorshid: MoU Is Done—Now the U.S. and Iran Enter a War of Attrition
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Quick Read
Summary
Takeaways
- ❖US and Iran are engaged in a 'war of attrition' involving reciprocal military strikes, primarily around the Strait of Hormuz.
- ❖Iran's 'Project Freedom' failed, and the subsequent MOU is being manipulated by the US to undermine Iranian control over the Strait of Hormuz.
- ❖Iran is developing a legal 'environmental fee' system for passage through the Strait of Hormuz, asserting its dominance.
- ❖Iran has significantly enhanced its air defense systems (e.g., Bavar, Arash) and overall military capabilities, making it more prepared for conflict.
- ❖The clause in the MOU concerning Lebanon's territorial integrity is interpreted by the speaker as requiring Israeli withdrawal, a point of contention.
- ❖The Lebanese government's agreement with Israel is criticized as legitimizing occupation and will not be accepted by Hezbollah or the Lebanese people.
- ❖European nations are described as 'vassals' of the US and Israel, lacking sovereignty in their foreign policy towards Iran.
- ❖Iran's long-term strategy and self-sufficiency (especially in defense) contrast with what is portrayed as US desperation and irrational decision-making.
- ❖The US will eventually be forced to withdraw its forces from the Persian Gulf region due to unsustainable costs and strategic shifts towards China.
Insights
1US-Iran Tit-for-Tat Escalation in the Persian Gulf
Recent US attacks on Iranian telecommunication radars in Syria and Peshma Island were met with Iranian responses targeting US military infrastructure. Iran's IRGC reportedly targeted 88 US military sites, including strategic shelters, marine control centers, and communication systems at Ali al-Salam air base in Kuwait and the Fifth Fleet in Bahrain. Iran's response intensity is calibrated to the perceived significance of US attacks.
US attacked southern Iran (Syria, Peshma Island) targeting radars. Iran responded by attacking Ali al-Salam air base in Kuwait and the Fifth Fleet in Bahrain, targeting 88 US military infrastructures. Iran's response was 'two or five drones on Bahrain' for a 'not significant' US attack, but intensified to 'eight targets' after a more intense US attack.
2Failure of 'Project Freedom' and US Manipulation of MOU
The US 'Project Freedom,' aimed at reducing Iranian control over the Strait of Hormuz by sending numerous vessels through non-designated routes, failed within 12 hours due to Saudi Arabia and other countries refusing participation. The subsequent MOU, intended to de-escalate, is now seen by the speaker as a US attempt to achieve 'Project Freedom' objectives by pressuring Oman to open alternative routes, thereby undermining Iranian dominance.
Donald Trump's 'Project Freedom' involved sending tankers through the Strait of Hormuz to reduce Iranian control. It 'failed in less than 12 hours' because Saudi Arabia and others refused to participate (). The US is now 'trying to do the project freedom under the new document MOU' by using Omani routes and pressuring the Omani government (, ).
3Iran's Assertion of Control over Strait of Hormuz with New Fee System
Following the MOU, Iran and Oman are defining a new mechanism for the Strait of Hormuz. Iran intends to implement a fee system, likely framed as an 'environmental fee' or 'service fee' to legalize it under international law, rather than a direct 'toll.' This move aims to formalize Iran's dominance over the Strait, with Iranian forces firing on tankers that do not follow designated routes.
Iranian delegation went to Oman to 'define the new mechanism of this rate of Formos' within 30 days of the MOU (). There are internal debates in Iran about 'toll system' versus 'environmental fee service fee' to legalize it (). Iran is 'firing at those tankers that are not following the rules of the strait' ().
4Iran's Enhanced Air Defense Capabilities and Strategic Resilience
Iran has significantly improved its air defense systems, including new integrated systems like 'Arash the archer' and 'Bavar,' which demonstrated the ability to intercept cruise missiles. These advancements, gained through experience during the conflict, make US aerial attacks less effective and unsustainable in the long run, bolstering Iran's ability to withstand prolonged conflict.
Iran is 'improving significantly their air defense system in the southern part of Iran' (). They have systems called 'Bavar' and the 'new system Arash the archer' (). Iranian air defense intercepted two cruise missiles targeting the Asaluyeh oil facility, a capability Iran 'didn't have before the war started' (). The improvements are due to 'huge learning process' from American attacks ().
5Lebanon MOU Clause and Israeli Occupation
The first clause of the US-Iran MOU, which declares 'immediate and permanent termination of military operations on all fronts, including in Lebanon' and ensures 'territorial integrity and sovereignty of Lebanon,' is interpreted by the speaker to mean Israel must withdraw from Lebanon. However, a separate agreement between Lebanon and Israel, mediated by the US, states Israel will remain until Hezbollah disarms, effectively legitimizing Israeli occupation of a significant portion of southern Lebanon.
The MOU's first clause states 'immediate and permanent termination of military operations on all fronts, including in Lebanon' and 'ensuring the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Lebanon' (, ). The speaker interprets this as 'Israel has to get out of Lebanon' (). However, a separate agreement states 'Israel declares no territorial ambitions in Lebanon while staying exactly where it is until it unilaterally signs of un disarmament,' referring to Hezbollah (). The Israeli Finance Minister, Smotrich, stated this agreement 'legitimized the occupation of Lebanon' ().
6European Nations as 'Vassals' of US and Israel
The speaker asserts that European countries, particularly Germany, are not sovereign but rather 'vassals' of the United States, and by extension, Israel. This lack of sovereignty explains their perceived hostile stance towards Iran and their cooperation with US military operations, despite the economic consequences of Strait of Hormuz closures.
The Chancellor of Germany said, 'they're doing our dirty job' regarding Israel attacking Iran (). The speaker states, 'Germany is not a sovereign country. Is a vassel. They're vassels of the United States. They're vassels. By by, you know, being vassel of the United States, it means you are a vassel of Israel' (). NATO Secretary General confirmed US used European bases to attack Iran 'more than five to 5,000 times' ().
Bottom Line
Iran's ability to close the Strait of Hormuz would primarily impact European and other non-allied countries, not China or friendly nations like Iraq and Pakistan, due to pre-existing arrangements and China's preparedness.
This suggests that the threat of closing the Strait of Hormuz is a targeted economic weapon against specific geopolitical adversaries, not a blanket measure, reducing potential pressure on Iran from its strategic partners.
Nations seeking to mitigate the impact of potential Strait of Hormuz disruptions could explore bilateral agreements with Iran for guaranteed passage or diversify their energy supply chains away from reliance on European routes.
The US is reportedly considering moving its military bases from GCC countries (Bahrain, Qatar, Saudi Arabia) westward to Jordan and Israel.
This potential shift indicates a recognition of the increased vulnerability of existing bases to Iranian retaliation and a strategic consolidation of US military presence closer to Israel, potentially increasing Israel's direct exposure to regional conflict.
This creates a vacuum in the GCC countries, potentially accelerating their pivot towards cooperation with Iran and other regional powers, leading to new geopolitical alignments and economic partnerships in the Persian Gulf.
Key Concepts
War of Attrition
A military strategy in which a belligerent attempts to win a war by wearing down the enemy to the point of collapse through continuous losses in personnel and material. The speaker applies this to the US-Iran conflict, suggesting Iran has the advantage due to its long-term resilience and the US's unsustainable operational costs.
Vassal State
A state that has a reciprocal obligation to a superior state or empire, typically involving military support in exchange for protection. The speaker uses this term to describe European nations, implying they lack independent foreign policy and act in service of US and Israeli interests against Iran.
Lessons
- Analyze the Strait of Hormuz not just as a global chokepoint, but as a strategically controlled asset by Iran, with potential for new 'environmental fees' impacting shipping costs and routes.
- Re-evaluate the sustainability of US military presence and 'tit-for-tat' strategies in the Persian Gulf, considering Iran's stated advancements in air defense and long-term strategic resilience.
- Examine the implications of the US-mediated Lebanon-Israel agreement, particularly how it is perceived to legitimize Israeli occupation and its potential to fuel further conflict with Hezbollah and Iran.
Notable Moments
The speaker recounts Donald Trump's past threat to bomb Oman if they 'don't behave,' highlighting perceived US pressure tactics on regional allies.
This anecdote underscores the speaker's view of US foreign policy as aggressive and coercive, even towards nominal partners, and suggests a pattern of behavior that could alienate regional states.
The speaker criticizes Bernie Sanders for supporting a 'two-state solution' because it would 'continue this sort of Israeli occupation' and avoid the 'end of Israel' that a one-state solution would bring.
This reveals a radical perspective on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, framing the two-state solution as a perpetuation of occupation and highlighting a deep-seated belief that the existence of Israel is fundamentally incompatible with Palestinian sovereignty.
Quotes
"The United States and Iran and their allies in the current war declare the immediate and permanent termination of military operations on all fronts, including in Lebanon, and undertake from now on not to initiate any war or any military operation against each other."
"Germany is not a sovereign country. Is a vassel. They're vassels of the United States. They're vassels. By by, you know, being vassel of the United States, it means you are a vassel of Israel."
"Lebanon is would be the graveyard of greater Israel. They're not going to they're not going to capture Lebanon. They're not going to occupy Lebanon."
Q&A
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