Larry C. Johnson: Iran’s Missiles DEVASTATE Tel Aviv & Haifa as New Supreme Leader Takes Power
Quick Read
Summary
Takeaways
- ❖Iran's concentrated attacks on Tel Aviv and Haifa exploit Israel's demographic vulnerability, contrasting with Iran's dispersed population.
- ❖Iran has destroyed critical US and Israeli radar systems (TSP and FPS), reducing missile warning times from 30 minutes to one minute.
- ❖The Strait of Hormuz is effectively closed, cutting off 21% of global oil supply and causing severe economic distress for dependent nations.
- ❖US military bases in the Persian Gulf are becoming untenable, and Gulf Arab states face imminent food and water shortages.
- ❖Russia is providing extensive, non-public support to Iran, leveraging the conflict to its economic and geopolitical advantage.
- ❖India's past alignment with Israel is now costing it dearly, as Russia imposes premiums on oil sales.
- ❖European attempts to reopen the Strait of Hormuz are deemed futile due to Iran's advanced anti-ship missile and drone capabilities.
- ❖The US concept of 'unconditional surrender' for Iran is unrealistic, as the US lacks the military capacity for a ground invasion or sustained air campaign against a country the size of Iran.
- ❖Israel is censoring footage of devastation, indicating significant damage from Iranian attacks.
- ❖US public opinion is shifting against Israel, with increasing calls to avoid military involvement for Israeli interests.
- ❖Donald Trump's perceived subservience to Netanyahu and Zionist interests is seen as damaging to American interests and politically unsustainable.
Insights
1Iran's Strategic Advantage in Asymmetric Warfare
Iran benefits from a dispersed population, making it difficult for the US/Israel to inflict widespread damage. In contrast, 75-80% of Israel's population is concentrated in Tel Aviv and Haifa, making them highly vulnerable to Iranian missile strikes. Iran only needs to hit two major targets to cause significant impact, which they have been doing repeatedly.
Iran has 91 million people, with Tehran (10-12 million) being the only large city. Israel has 75-80% of its population in Tel Aviv and Haifa. Iran has been hitting these cities daily.
2Blinding US and Israeli Radar Capabilities
Iran successfully destroyed five critical US and Israeli radar systems (two TSP radars costing $500 million each and three FPS radars costing over $1 billion each). This has reduced Israel's missile warning time from 30 minutes to just one minute, severely compromising their defensive capabilities.
Iran took out five radars: two TSP (Tipsy) and three FPS. TSP radars cost $500 million, FPS over $1 billion. This has blinded both the US and Israel, reducing warning time from 30 minutes to one minute.
3Strait of Hormuz Closure and Global Economic Fallout
Iran has effectively shut down the Strait of Hormuz to maritime traffic, cutting off 21% of the world's oil supply. This action is creating a full-blown global economic crisis, leading to severe oil shortages, spiking prices, and potential food and water crises for Gulf states heavily reliant on imports and desalination.
The shutdown of the Persian Gulf to maritime traffic means 21% of global oil supply is 'poof, gone.' Qatar and UAE face severe food shortages within a week and potential water shortages due to attacks on desalination plants. Oil prices are spiking, and the US has attacked Iranian oil tankers, further reducing supply.
4Russia's Substantive Support and Diplomatic Masterclass
Russia is providing extensive, non-public support to Iran. Diplomatically, Russia's Foreign Minister Lavrov delivered a 'master class in hard-nosed diplomacy' to Gulf Cooperation Council ambassadors, condemning their silence on US/Israeli attacks on Iran while seeking Russian intervention to stop Iranian retaliation.
Russia provided attack helicopters to Iran. Lavrov's meeting with GCC ambassadors on March 5th, where he expressed condolences for losses but criticized their lack of protest against unprovoked attacks on Iran and the killing of civilians.
5Unrealistic US 'Victory' Conditions
The US definition of 'winning' against Iran involves Iran admitting US control, US dictating Iranian policies, and US having final say over Iranian leadership. However, the US lacks the military capacity (insufficient troops, planes, bombs, and logistical challenges) to achieve such an outcome against a large, mountainous country like Iran, especially given Iran's defensive capabilities.
Pete Hexet, Secretary of War, defined 'unconditional surrender' as 'fighting to win,' meaning US control over Iran's government and policies. Larry Johnson argues the US is 'not capable of that' with its current force structure, citing Iran's size (four times Iraq, three times Ukraine) and defensive terrain.
Bottom Line
Iran is using the closure of the Strait of Hormuz as its primary bargaining leverage to force the West to lift all sanctions, cease demonization, and withdraw US troops from the Persian Gulf.
This strategy shifts the power dynamic significantly, forcing Western economies to concede to Iran's demands to restore global trade and prevent an economic collapse.
For nations aligned with Iran, this creates an opportunity to reshape regional security arrangements and reduce Western influence, potentially leading to new economic partnerships.
The US security umbrella in the Persian Gulf has proven ineffective, leading Gulf Arab states to seek protection and dialogue with Russia and China.
This marks a fundamental shift in regional alliances, as traditional US allies recognize their vulnerability and seek alternative security guarantors, diminishing US influence.
Russia and China can solidify their roles as key geopolitical players in the Middle East, offering stability and protection to states previously reliant on the US.
Israel is actively censoring information and footage of the devastation within its borders, indicating significant damage from Iranian attacks that contradicts official narratives of effectiveness.
This information blackout suggests a deliberate attempt to control public perception and prevent panic or a loss of confidence in their defense capabilities, both domestically and internationally.
Independent media and alternative information sources can gain credibility by exposing the reality on the ground, challenging official narratives and fostering a more informed global discourse.
Lessons
- Monitor global oil and gas markets closely, as the sustained closure of the Strait of Hormuz will continue to drive up energy prices and impact supply chains worldwide.
- Assess the geopolitical shifts in the Middle East, recognizing that traditional alliances are weakening and new power dynamics involving Russia, China, and Iran are emerging.
- Be aware of the potential for a global economic recession triggered by energy shortages and trade disruptions, and adjust investment and business strategies accordingly.
Quotes
"Iran's only got to hit two [cities, Tel Aviv and Haifa]. And they've been doing that repeatedly day after day after day. And the Israelis are suffering."
"The war of attrition started this last week. Nobody would have imagined that Iran would take out those five radars."
"The shutdown of the Persian Gulf to maritime traffic means that the ability of Saudi Arabia, but particularly Qatar and United Arab Emirates to continue living as normal is that's over."
"We've never faced a situation like this in the history of the modern world since oil became a thing."
"This war will eventually end... and it I believe it will end in a negotiated settlement that will be to the benefit of Iran."
Q&A
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