Mohammad Marandi & Larry C. Johnson: If War Starts… Iran’s Retaliation Could Be DEVASTATING
Quick Read
Summary
Takeaways
- ❖US carrier strike groups are vulnerable to Iran's drone swarms and advanced missiles, especially when operating at deterrent distances.
- ❖Iran's military strategy involves an 'all-out war' in response to any US strike, aiming to eliminate the threat entirely, not just retaliate symbolically.
- ❖Regional allies like Yemen and Iraq possess significant military capabilities and would join a conflict, expanding it beyond Iran's borders.
- ❖A US-Iran conflict would shut down the Strait of Hormuz, destroy oil and gas facilities, and collapse the global economy.
- ❖US attempts to incite internal unrest in Iran through currency manipulation and trained rioters failed quickly due to robust Iranian security and public support.
- ❖The ongoing shift in global economic hegemony, with BRICS nations reducing reliance on the US dollar, further disincentivizes US military adventurism.
- ❖Iran is open to nuclear negotiations but demands recognition of its right to enrichment and lifting of sanctions, refusing to compromise on its missile program or regional alliances.
- ❖Israel's influence ('Israeli firsters') in US foreign policy is a major impediment to any genuine diplomatic resolution with Iran.
Insights
1US Naval Limitations Against Iranian Deterrence
The US carrier strike group, positioned 1,000 miles offshore in the Arabian Sea, lacks the range with Tomahawk missiles to effectively target Iran's ballistic missile sites. Furthermore, US destroyers and missile cruisers have limited vertical launch system cells (50-100 missiles), making them vulnerable to Iranian drone swarms (e.g., 100 drones per ship) which can overwhelm air defenses. Iran also possesses maneuverable drones with ranges exceeding 1,000 kilometers, capable of reaching US ships, and has stationed surface-to-sea missiles along the Persian Gulf coast.
Larry Johnson details the 1,000-mile offshore position, Tomahawk range, drone capabilities, and VLS cell limitations (, , ).
2Iran's 'All-Out War' Strategy and Regional Alliances
Iran has explicitly stated it will not accept a 'symbolic strike' and will respond with 'all-out war,' targeting all US bases in the region, Israel, and the oil and gas facilities/tankers of Persian Gulf countries perceived as complicit. This strategy is backed by two and a half decades of preparation, including underground bases, small speedboats, submarines, torpedoes, and hundreds of thousands of drones and missiles. Regional allies like Yemen (Ansar Allah), Hezbollah, and Iraqi groups (who recently won elections and have their own underground missile cities) are prepared to join a regional conflict, further escalating the scale of any war.
Marandi explains Iran's 'all-out war' stance and two-and-a-half decades of preparation (, ). Both speakers discuss the role of Yemen, Iraq, and Hezbollah (, ).
3Devastating Global Economic Consequences of Conflict
A conflict between the US and Iran would destroy the global economy, far surpassing the impact of the Ukraine war. Iran's ability to disrupt oil and gas exports from the entire West Asia region would cause oil prices to skyrocket initially, then collapse as global consumption plummets due to economic recession. Even US self-sufficiency in oil would not prevent its economy from collapsing due to soaring costs for factories and consumers. This would lead to a dystopian situation with tens of millions of displaced people.
Marandi details the economic impact, including oil and gas exports, global economy collapse, and mass migration (, , ).
4US Attempts to Incite Internal Unrest in Iran Failed
Recent attempts by US intelligence agencies to destabilize Iran through currency manipulation (causing a 30% drop in the Rial) and orchestrating riots with trained individuals failed. These 'well-trained rioters' used identical methods across the country, burning banks, mosques, and schools, and killed 350 police officers. However, Iranian security forces quickly suppressed the unrest by cutting internet access, neutralizing Elon Musk's Starlink capabilities, using drones for surveillance, and arresting ringleaders. Massive pro-government protests also demonstrated strong public support for the state.
Marandi describes the US Secretary of Treasury's admission of currency manipulation, the coordinated nature of riots, and Iran's swift response (, , , ).
5The 'Israeli Factor' as the Core Obstacle to US-Iran Normalization
The speakers argue that if Israel did not exist, US-Iran relations would normalize within months, similar to Iran's relationship with Russia after the Soviet Union shed its imperial ambitions. The current US foreign policy, particularly under Trump, is heavily influenced by 'Israeli firsters' and Zionists in key negotiating positions (e.g., Jared Kushner, Steve Witkov). This influence prioritizes Israeli interests over US interests, preventing genuine diplomatic engagement and trust-building with Iran. The perceived lack of trustworthiness from the US, stemming from past betrayals like the JCPOA withdrawal and ongoing support for Israeli actions in Gaza, makes any negotiation extremely difficult.
Marandi states that without Israel, US-Iran relations would normalize quickly (). Larry Johnson and Marandi discuss the 'Israeli firsters' and Zionist influence in US policy and negotiations (, ).
Bottom Line
The US economic hegemony is declining, evidenced by volatility in gold/silver markets, China's economic diversification away from the US, and the growing influence of BRICS nations.
This shift reduces the US's ability to unilaterally impose its will through economic sanctions or military threats, as other global powers and alternative economic systems provide a buffer for targeted nations like Iran.
Nations and businesses can explore increased trade and investment opportunities within the BRICS framework and other non-dollar-denominated markets, hedging against US economic and political instability.
The traditional Sunni-Shia and Arab-Persian divides, historically promoted by Gulf regimes and Western powers, are weakening, particularly after events in Gaza and Iran's support for Iraq against ISIS.
This erosion of manufactured divisions could lead to new regional alliances and a more unified front against external interference, potentially altering the geopolitical landscape of West Asia.
Diplomatic efforts and regional cooperation initiatives that transcend sectarian lines could find greater traction, fostering stability and economic integration in the region, independent of Western influence.
Key Concepts
Mutual Assured Destruction (MAD)
The concept that a full-scale use of nuclear weapons by two or more opposing sides would cause the complete annihilation of both the attacker and the defender. The speakers apply this to conventional warfare, suggesting Iran's retaliation capabilities would be so devastating to the US and global economy that it deters a first strike.
Lessons
- Businesses with supply chains reliant on West Asian oil and gas should model scenarios for severe disruption and explore alternative sourcing or energy strategies.
- Investors should consider diversifying portfolios to include assets and markets less exposed to US dollar hegemony and potential geopolitical shocks in West Asia, such as those within BRICS nations.
- Policymakers and analysts should critically re-evaluate conventional narratives about Iran's military capabilities and regional intentions, considering its stated deterrence strategy and the potential for a broader regional conflict.
Notable Moments
Larry Johnson's initial assessment shifts from 'attack imminent' to 'unlikely to happen' due to new intelligence and strategic considerations.
This highlights the dynamic nature of geopolitical assessments and the importance of real-time intelligence in shaping strategic outlooks, suggesting a significant re-evaluation within US decision-making circles.
The revelation of an underground missile city in Iraq, shown in footage, indicating a new component to regional war capabilities.
This demonstrates the expanding military infrastructure and readiness of Iran's regional allies, significantly increasing the complexity and destructive potential of any conflict.
The US Secretary of Treasury's admission in Davos about orchestrating the depreciation of the Iranian currency.
This confirms the direct involvement of US intelligence agencies in economic warfare aimed at destabilizing Iran internally, underscoring the non-military tactics employed in geopolitical competition.
Quotes
"If Iran launches 75 drones at one ship, it's going to be, you know, about 30 mil anti-air defense missiles short."
"If you do that, we're going to destroy all your bases and we're going to take out Israel while we're at it and we're not going to stop until your your threat is eliminated."
"Iran has been preparing for war with the United States for two and a half decades."
"What Iran can do to the oil and gas exports from the entire of West Asia area and the caucuses will be will create will destroy the global economy."
"Israel's control over US foreign policy is starting to slip or at least it's now becoming a political issue that um you know I mean it's it's it's crudely stated was we're tired of letting Jews tell us what to do. We're tired of this being Israel first instead of America first."
"If hypothetically there was no Israel today, Iranian US relations would normalize within months."
Q&A
Recent Questions
Related Episodes
Col. Jacques Baud: What a US Ground Invasion of Iran Would REALLY Look Like
"Colonel Jacques Baud dissects the strategic futility of a US ground invasion of Iran, arguing that current troop levels are insufficient and such an action would backfire, exposing US allies and potentially leading to Iran's nuclearization."
Trump BEGS For HUMILIATING CEASEFIRE With Iran
"As US-Iran tensions escalate, the hosts dissect Trump's contradictory public statements on a potential ceasefire, expose the dubious nature of peace proposals, and reveal critical military and political developments that signal a deepening conflict."
Col. Jacques Baud: Middle East on Fire — Is This the Start of Something Bigger?
"Colonel Jacques Baud dissects the escalating conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran, arguing that Western misunderstanding of Iranian culture and strategic duplicity have forced Iran into a position of necessary escalation, ultimately degrading the West's own strategic posture."
BREAKING: U.S. Weighs INVADING Iran Oil Island; Gulf Energy Crisis Grows | TBN Israel
"As the US and Israel systematically dismantle Iran's military and leadership, the conflict escalates into an energy war, with the US considering ground invasion of Iran's critical Karag oil island to secure global oil routes."