Pepe Escobar: Iran Just CHANGED the Balance of Power in the Middle East
Quick Read
Summary
Takeaways
- ❖US President Trump's threats to bomb Iran's infrastructure are characterized as 'war criminal' behavior and 'extermination' against 90 million people.
- ❖Iran's strategic response involves targeting Israeli and UAE infrastructure, aiming to make Israel 'nonviable' within weeks.
- ❖The US has lost control of military bases and the Strait of Hormuz, which is now under a new Iranian-Omani regime requiring tolls and approvals.
- ❖A purported 'peace plan' by Muslim nations (Pakistan, Egypt, Turkey, Saudi Arabia) quickly collapsed, proving ineffective.
- ❖The 'Primakov Triangle' (Russia, Iran, China) is conducting the real, discreet negotiations and strategic coordination.
- ❖Iran's unified front, including the IRGC, Supreme Leader, and even reformists, is committed to a long war against the 'empire'.
- ❖Russia is providing substantial intelligence and satellite coordinates to Iran, enabling precise strikes.
- ❖The war is accelerating the 'progressive dismantling' of NATO and the EU, as European nations face energy crises and question US reliability.
- ❖Iran's control over the Strait of Hormuz effectively bypasses US sanctions, SWIFT, and the petrodollar system, securing its income.
Insights
1US Strategy: Indiscriminate Bombing and 'Extermination'
The US President's stated intention to bomb Iran's electrical plants and other infrastructure, including civilian targets like pharmaceutical plants, bridges, and civilian neighborhoods, is characterized as a 'war of revenge' and an 'extermination campaign' against 90 million Iranians. This strategy is seen as a desperate act of 'impotence' and 'blind rage' due to military and strategic failures.
Trump's quoted speech threatening to hit 'each and every one of their electric generating plants very hard and probably simultaneously,' and the guest's assertion that 'they are bombing pharmaceutical plants... bridges... institute pastel... civilian neighborhoods in Thran and across Isfahan as well.'
2Iran's Strategic Gains: Hormuz Control and Base Removal
Iran has already achieved two major, irreversible strategic victories: the permanent removal of US military bases from West Asia and the establishment of a new regime controlling the Strait of Hormuz. This new system requires vessels to pay a toll, communicate essential information, and receive approval from the IRGC Navy, effectively bypassing Western sanctions and the petrodollar.
The guest states, 'the empire of chaos will never going to get these base these military bases in West Asia back. Never. These are gone forever.' and 'the new regime in the Strait of Hormuz... it will be negotiated with Oman... you need to pay the toll booth... you need approval by the IRGC Navy.'
3The Rise of the Primakov Triangle (Russia, Iran, China)
Genuine diplomatic and strategic discussions regarding the Middle East conflict are occurring discreetly within the 'new Primakov Triangle' of Russia, Iran, and China, not through public forums or Western-backed initiatives. China is unwilling to risk its diplomatic reputation by endorsing peace plans that involve 'barbarians' (US) who are 'non-agreement capable.'
The guest states, 'what really matters will be discussed by the new Primakov triangle. R I Russia, Iran, China.' and 'the Chinese will never risk their diplomatic reputation.'
4Iran's Unified and Long-Term War Strategy
Iran is united across its political spectrum (IRGC, Supreme Leader, reformists) in its resolve to fight the 'empire' and its proxies. It is preparing for a prolonged conflict, producing 'huge number of accurate and cheap attack drones,' and focusing on strategic targets, with a rational strategy to 'raise Israel to the ground' and attack UAE infrastructure.
Nema states, 'there is no gap between the two [IRGC and Supreme Leader]. That's why they're so united in their goals.' and 'Israel media is just saying that... these Iranians are producing huge number of accurate and cheap attack cheap attack drones.'
5Global Economic Catastrophe and NATO's Collapse
The ongoing conflict is causing irreversible destruction to the global economy, with predictions of 'years of disaster ahead' if it continues for another four weeks. This war, rather than the Ukraine conflict, is seen as the primary driver behind the 'progressive dismantling' of NATO and the EU, as it directly impacts the critical Strait of Hormuz and global energy supplies.
The guest states, 'If this thing goes on for another four weeks, then the destruction of the global economy is irreversible' and 'NATO is already collapsing now in real time... It's because of the empire, the war of choice of the empire against Iran because then it touches the ultimate bottleneck.'
Bottom Line
Iran's new control over the Strait of Hormuz, including tolls and IRGC Navy approval, serves as a direct counter-sanction mechanism, effectively bypassing the US-dominated SWIFT system and petrodollar for its income.
This move fundamentally undermines the efficacy of Western financial warfare and provides Iran with a self-sustaining economic model, reducing its vulnerability to external pressure.
Nations seeking to circumvent US sanctions or diversify away from the petrodollar may find a new, Iran-centric trade route and financial system emerging through the Strait of Hormuz, potentially accelerating de-dollarization.
The war against Iran is identified as the primary catalyst for the 'progressive dismantling' of NATO and the EU, rather than the proxy war in Ukraine.
This suggests that the core vulnerability of Western alliances lies in their energy dependence and the global economic impact of Middle Eastern conflicts, rather than direct military confrontation in Europe.
Non-Western powers or nations seeking greater autonomy from US influence could leverage this weakening of NATO/EU cohesion to forge new alliances or pursue independent foreign policies, particularly in energy and trade.
Key Concepts
Empire of Chaos
A term used to describe the United States, suggesting its foreign policy creates instability and disorder globally, rather than promoting peace or order. The podcast frames the US's actions against Iran as a desperate attempt to maintain a collapsing hegemonic system.
Primakov Triangle
Refers to a geopolitical alignment of Russia, Iran, and China, acting as a counterweight to Western influence. This triangle is presented as the true locus of power and strategic decision-making in the current global landscape, especially regarding the Middle East.
Infernal Escalation Machine
A concept describing the current conflict dynamic as an unstoppable, self-perpetuating cycle of violence and escalation with no clear 'off-ramp' or diplomatic resolution in sight, leading to catastrophic outcomes.
Lessons
- Monitor the strategic coordination and public statements from Russia, Iran, and China (the 'Primakov Triangle') for signals of a new, multipolar global order and its implications for international relations.
- Assess the long-term impact of Iran's asserted control over the Strait of Hormuz on global energy markets, shipping routes, and the efficacy of traditional financial sanctions.
- Evaluate the potential for severe and irreversible global economic disruption if the conflict escalates further, and consider diversifying supply chains and investment strategies away from regions heavily reliant on current Middle East stability.
Notable Moments
The host and guest's shared interpretation of President Trump's speech as a declaration of 'extermination' against the Iranian people, rather than a military strategy.
This highlights the extreme polarization and demonization of leadership in the current geopolitical discourse, framing the conflict in highly moral and existential terms.
The rapid collapse of the 'Muslim nations' peace initiative, followed by Pakistan's foreign minister immediately seeking counsel from China.
This illustrates the perceived irrelevance of traditional regional alliances and the decisive influence of major powers like China in shaping Middle Eastern outcomes.
The discussion about the unified front within Iran, encompassing the IRGC, Supreme Leader, and even reformists, in confronting the 'empire'.
This challenges external narratives that might seek to exploit internal divisions within Iran, suggesting a strong, consolidated national resolve in the face of external threats.
Quotes
"If there is no deal, we are going to hit each and every one of their electric generating plants very hard and probably simultaneously."
"He says that he's going to bomb Iran to the stone ages... Iranians were already an extremely civilized empire. So that starts with that. To put in context who are the real barbarians, right?"
"The empire of chaos will never going to get these base these military bases in West Asia back. Never. These are gone forever."
"There is no gap between the two [IRGC and Supreme Leader]. That's why they're so united in their goals in their aims in their objectives."
"NATO is already collapsing now in real time in front of all of us. And it was not because of Ukraine... It's because of the empire, the war of choice of the empire against Iran."
Q&A
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