A Dangerous Start to 2026 | Shield of the Republic
Quick Read
Summary
Takeaways
- ❖The Trump administration's 'jackasserie' includes cutting out intelligence officials from sensitive operations and attempting to degrade political opponents.
- ❖US threats against Denmark over Greenland are alarming Europeans, potentially leading them to become more self-reliant in defense and economically retaliatory.
- ❖Attacking a treaty ally like Denmark would cause global reverberations, undermining US credibility with all its partners.
- ❖The seizure of Russian/Iranian ghost fleet tankers, while justifiable, risks inadvertent conflict with major powers.
- ❖The Trump administration is 'intoxicated' with surgical military power, underestimating the risks of escalation and unintended casualties.
- ❖Ukrainians have learned to navigate negotiations with Trump's team, focusing on transactional deal-making rather than ideology.
- ❖Widespread protests in Iran, fueled by economic collapse and water crises, show signs of being more serious than previous waves, with potential for regime fracture upon the Supreme Leader's death.
- ❖The Minneapolis ICE shooting incident reveals a disturbing trend of excessive force and a 'cowboy' mentality within law enforcement, driven by political quotas and rhetoric.
Insights
1US Actions in Venezuela and Greenland Alienate Allies
The US conducted a raid to extract Nicholas Maduro from Caracas and seized two tankers, including one re-flagged as Russian (the Marinara, formerly Bella One), suspected of moving sanctioned oil. Concurrently, the Trump administration's perceived threat to acquire Greenland from Denmark, a treaty ally, has deeply alarmed Europeans. This 'insistence on owning it is perverse' given Denmark's willingness to cooperate on defense and mineral rights. Such actions risk 'reverberations that would go not just through Europe but all around the world,' undermining US treaty relationships.
Elliot Cohen describes the Maduro raid () and the tanker seizure (). Eric Edelman details European alarm over Greenland () and the potential for military action against a treaty ally ().
2European and Ukrainian Adaptation to Trump's Foreign Policy
Europeans are reacting with 'anger' to US unpredictability, potentially deciding to 'strike out on their own' and get 'a lot tougher in their own defense,' even retaliating economically. In Ukraine, negotiators are reportedly finding success dealing with Trump's team (Witoff and Kushner), who are seen as 'real estate dealmakers' susceptible to negotiation rather than ideologues. This suggests a strategic adaptation by allies to the transactional nature of the administration.
Eric Edelman notes European anger and potential self-reliance (). Elliot Cohen discusses Ukrainians figuring out how to deal with Witoff and Kushner ().
3Iran Protests Show Increased Seriousness
Current popular unrest in Iran, triggered by the collapse of the Iranian currency, is more widespread than previous waves, reaching beyond major cities into the provinces. Reports of the Supreme Leader making plans to flee to Moscow if things 'go to smash,' and protesters shouting 'long live the Shah,' indicate a significant shift in public sentiment and potential for regime instability. The critical moment for a regime fracture is anticipated upon the death of Supreme Leader Khamenei, due to an unclear succession.
Elliot Cohen details the currency collapse trigger () and widespread protests (). Eric Edelman discusses reports of the Supreme Leader's exit plans () and the 'long live the Shah' chants ().
4Domestic Law Enforcement Overreach and Politicization
An incident in Minneapolis where an ICE agent shot and killed a woman, despite video evidence suggesting no direct threat, is highlighted as a troubling example of excessive force. The immediate state apparatus response to label the victim a 'domestic terrorist' without clear evidence is alarming. This trend is linked to the recruitment of 'cowboys' as ICE agents and a culture driven by political figures like Stephen Miller, who impose quotas and foster an environment where inhibitions about shooting unarmed citizens are diminished.
Elliot Cohen analyzes the Minneapolis ICE shooting video () and the immediate state response (). Eric Edelman attributes this to recruiting 'cowboys' and political influence ().
Bottom Line
The unpredictability and transactional nature of US foreign policy under the current administration are pushing European allies towards greater self-reliance and potentially economic retaliation against the US.
This shift could fundamentally alter post-WWII international order, weakening US influence and creating a more multipolar world where traditional alliances are less reliable.
For European nations, this presents an opportunity to accelerate defense integration and develop independent foreign policy mechanisms, potentially fostering a stronger, more unified European bloc.
Ukrainians have developed a sophisticated strategy for negotiating with US officials like Witoff and Kushner, treating them as real estate dealmakers rather than ideologues.
This pragmatic approach allows Ukraine to secure necessary support despite the unconventional nature of US diplomacy, but it also highlights the vulnerability of US foreign policy to personal, transactional interests.
Other nations dealing with the US could adopt similar strategies, focusing on tangible 'deals' and understanding the personal motivations of key negotiators, rather than relying on traditional diplomatic norms or shared values.
The potential for regime change in Iran is significantly tied to the eventual death of Supreme Leader Khamenei, due to the lack of a clear succession plan and existing clerical opposition to the regime's political power.
This creates a critical vulnerability for the Iranian regime, as a power vacuum could trigger internal fractures within the security forces, potentially leading to a more democratic transition.
External actors, particularly the US, could proactively develop policies to support Iranian protesters with information and technology, similar to past efforts with Solidarity in Poland, to facilitate a more favorable outcome during a succession crisis.
Key Concepts
Offensive Realism / Transactional Worldview
The hosts describe the Trump administration's foreign policy, particularly as articulated by figures like Stephen Miller, as an extension of 'offensive realism.' This worldview is characterized by a belief that international relations are purely transactional, driven solely by national interest and power, with no regard for alliances, common values, or the power of emotion. This leads to a nihilistic approach that destroys the 'connective tissue' of international cooperation, assuming 'the strong do what they will' without considering long-term consequences or the reciprocal actions of others.
Semantic Imperialism
Elliot Cohen references Daniel Patrick Moynihan's concept of 'semantic imperialism,' where those who label themselves 'realists' implicitly brand their opponents as 'unrealistic.' This rhetorical tactic allows them to infiltrate their views and dismiss dissenting opinions, even if their 'realist' approach is, in practice, reckless and counterproductive.
Lessons
- Recognize that US foreign policy can be driven by unpredictable, transactional motives rather than traditional alliances or shared values, requiring a re-evaluation of international partnerships.
- Be aware of the potential for domestic law enforcement to use excessive force and for political narratives to immediately demonize victims, necessitating critical scrutiny of official accounts and video evidence.
- Understand that geopolitical stability is increasingly fragile, with events like the Greenland dispute and Iranian protests carrying significant risks of escalation and long-term global impact.
Quotes
"The thing that really gets me about this is in the old days, I do believe that you would have had a delegation of Republican senators who who would have gone either to Hexath or to the president and say, 'Knock this stuff off. We're not going to tolerate a situation where the executive branch can try to go in a personal way after a senator, even if they're from the opposite party, over this kind of thing because what goes around comes around.'"
"Attacking a treaty ally would you know have reverberations that would go not just through Europe but all around the world because everybody with whom we have a treaty relationship... all of those would be rocked by by something like that."
"The world view that Miller was articulating was very much the world view of Carl Schmidt, which is that it's power. It's all about power and we can do it."
"They're utterly reckless in destroying the connective tissue of common values as well as interests that that have made this country incredibly powerful and prosperous. And there there's something nihilistic about it."
"I'm in favor of advertent conflict with Russia, not inadvertent conflict."
"The Ukrainians intend to keep on fighting this one out because they know that the alternative is annihilation and they're not going to do that."
"I don't think there's an incipient monarchist movement that is serious that's going to bring the Sha back. I don't believe that. Um but the fact that protesters a feel free enough to be able to shout that in the streets uh and that they know it is particularly noxious to the regime. I mean again tells you something I think about kind of what we're seeing go on in Iran."
Q&A
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