Seyed M. Marandi: One Strike Wiped Out Trump’s Entire Plan – It’s Over
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Quick Read
Summary
Takeaways
- ❖US attempts to open the Strait of Hormuz for allied shipping were a 'failure' and a 'test' of Iranian resolve, which Iran successfully countered.
- ❖Iran claims control over the Strait of Hormuz, allowing passage only for ships from countries not involved in the conflict against it.
- ❖Iran launched retaliatory strikes against three commercial vessels and oil installations in the UAE, effectively halting UAE oil exports.
- ❖The US is accused of creating a global energy crisis and disrupting supply chains by attempting to impose a siege on Iranian ports.
- ❖Iran believes a rapid deterioration of the global economic situation is imminent (within 10-30 days), which will increase pressure on the US.
- ❖The UAE is considered a 'full partner' in hostilities against Iran, hosting US forces and suffering direct consequences.
- ❖Iran is prepared for preemptive strikes against US allies if a major assault is anticipated, having already demonstrated this capability against the UAE.
- ❖Weather conditions in the Arabian Peninsula (extreme heat and humidity) are expected to become a significant impediment to US ground operations by mid-May.
- ❖Trump's statements regarding Iran's missile program are dismissed as inconsistent and unreliable, given the perceived 'madmen' nature of US leadership.
- ❖China is seen as a crucial diplomatic and economic partner for Iran, potentially leveraging its influence during Trump's upcoming visit to Beijing to de-escalate the conflict.
Insights
1Iran's Effective Control of the Strait of Hormuz and Selective Passage
Iran has asserted de facto control over the Strait of Hormuz, preventing major US-allied supertankers and cargo ships from passing while allowing non-complicit vessels (Chinese, Russian, Iraqi) to transit. This selective enforcement and the ability to fire warning shots at US ships demonstrate Iran's operational dominance.
The Iranians were firing warning shots at US ships and preventing ships from leaving the Strait of Hormuz if Iranian ships were blocked. The Strait is not closed for Chinese, Russian, or Iraqi ships, or those from countries not involved in the war. The US failed to get any supertanker or major cargo ship through. (, , )
2UAE as a Primary Target and Economic Vulnerability
The UAE is considered a direct participant in the war against Iran, hosting US forces and equipment. In retaliation, Iran struck three commercial vessels and oil installations in Fujairah, severely damaging Emirati oil export capabilities and causing significant economic disruption.
Iran struck three commercial vessels and bases inside the Emirates, including the Fujairah oil installation. The UAE's oil exports have reportedly gone down to zero. The Emirates have allowed the US to bring large numbers of troops and equipment, making them 'partners in the war.' (, , , , )
3Iran's Strategic Patience and Economic Leverage
Iran's strategy is to avoid direct escalation and instead wait for global economic pressures, exacerbated by the conflict's impact on energy markets, to force a US policy change. Iran believes time is on its side, anticipating a rapid deterioration of the global economic situation within 10-30 days.
Iran is not interested in escalation, believing 'time is on its side' because global economic pressure increases daily. The US is creating an energy crisis. A 'rapid deterioration in the global economic situation' is expected within 10-30 days, leading to supply chain disruptions and fuel shortages. (, , , )
4Shift Towards Preemptive Strikes by Iran
Recent Iranian actions, such as the strikes on the UAE, suggest a potential shift in strategy towards preemptive attacks if Iran perceives an imminent major US assault. This marks a departure from previous reactive responses.
The attack on the UAE and its ports 'somehow reminds us maybe Iran is changing its strategy going with some sort of preemptive attacks.' This could be a sign that Iran is 'not going to necessarily wait for the Americans to carry out a strike and that they will hit first.' (, )
5Environmental Factors as a Deterrent to US Military Action
The rapidly increasing heat and humidity in the Arabian Peninsula during May are seen as a significant logistical and operational challenge for US ground troops, making a major assault on Iran less feasible after mid-May.
The weather will 'get much worse after Trump returns from China in the middle of the month of May.' Senior military officials (non-Iranian) acknowledge it will be 'very difficult for ground troops to get involved' during that heat. (, )
Bottom Line
The US's reliance on regional allies for logistical support in any major conflict with Iran makes these allies highly vulnerable to Iranian retaliation, potentially forcing them to reconsider their alignment.
This creates a critical vulnerability for US power projection in the Middle East, as the cost of supporting US military operations could become prohibitive for host nations, leading to a fracturing of regional alliances.
For non-aligned nations or those seeking to reduce US influence, this situation presents an opportunity to strengthen ties with Iran and other regional powers, potentially forming new economic and security blocs that bypass traditional Western dominance.
Iran's strategy of 'strategic patience' combined with targeted economic disruption and the exploitation of global market vulnerabilities (energy, supply chains) is a potent asymmetric warfare tactic.
This approach allows Iran to inflict significant costs on its adversaries without direct military escalation, shifting the burden of economic crisis onto the global community and indirectly pressuring the US to de-escalate.
Nations and businesses can prepare for prolonged global economic instability by diversifying supply chains, securing alternative energy sources, and investing in resilience against geopolitical shocks originating from critical chokepoints like the Strait of Hormuz.
Lessons
- For US policymakers: Re-evaluate the cost-benefit analysis of maintaining military presence and aggressive posture in the Persian Gulf, considering the escalating economic and logistical challenges.
- For global energy consumers: Prepare for sustained high energy prices and potential supply chain disruptions, as the conflict's economic fallout is expected to intensify.
- For regional allies of the US (e.g., UAE): Assess the direct risks of hosting US military assets and cooperating in actions against Iran, as this makes them primary targets for Iranian retaliation and economic disruption.
Quotes
"The United States wants to want to impose a siege on Iranian ports, but allow the countries that help the United States attack Iran, meaning the Emirates, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Bahin to be able to use their ports. And that is not acceptable for Iran."
"Iran is not interested in escalation because it believes time is on its side. Every day that goes back, every day that that that every day that we go forward, there's there's further setback for the United States because the global economy, the pressure on the global economy increases."
"If they were smart, they and the other four countries, they would gather together and declare to the United States that you can no longer use our land, sea or air to attack Iran. If they did that, there would be no war because without them, without these five countries, the United States, logistically speaking, and Jordan, too... the United States cannot logistically wage to war against Iran. It's just not possible."
"If it reaches a point where this becomes dangerous for the United States, then there may be a divergence. Then the United States may say, well, you know, we have we have other priorities, too. That is I think what the Iranians are looking for."
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