How Israel Came to Dominate US Foreign Policy | Noah Kulwin & Brendan James | TMR
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Summary
Takeaways
- ❖The US-Israel relationship is not a simple proxy dynamic; it's a complex, historically contingent partnership shaped by domestic politics and evolving geopolitical interests.
- ❖Early US presidents like Truman and Eisenhower initially resisted supporting Israel, but domestic political pressures, particularly the Jewish vote in key states, swayed decisions.
- ❖The Israel lobby, including AIPAC, formed in response to early Israeli controversies and has since grown into a powerful, historically significant force shaping US foreign policy.
- ❖Republican presidents (Reagan, H.W. Bush) have historically shown more willingness to challenge Israel than recent Democratic administrations, often due to differing voter bases.
- ❖US intelligence and military leaders frequently view Israel's belligerence as counterproductive to broader US strategic interests, contrasting with the political apparatus's unwavering support.
Insights
1Truman's Initial Resistance and Domestic Political Pressure
President Harry S. Truman initially opposed the creation of a Jewish state, favoring a bi-national or federated system. His foreign policy apparatus and the oil industry also opposed it. However, domestic advisors, notably Clark Clifford, convinced him that supporting Israel was crucial for winning the New York vote and maintaining the New Deal coalition, which included Jewish voters, especially in the wake of the Holocaust refugee crisis.
Truman resisted his foreign policy apparatus and the oil industry's opposition. Clark Clifford advised Truman that winning New York and the Jewish vote was essential for his re-election, a key factor in Truman's eventual recognition of Israel.
2Birth of the Israel Lobby (AIPAC) from Crisis
The American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC) and other cornerstone organizations of the Israel lobby were formed in the 1950s. This was largely a response to the negative international public relations Israel received after the 1953 Qibya massacre of a Palestinian village, which prompted Eisenhower to suspend aid. The lobby's initial focus was on improving Israel's image and ensuring the American Jewish community spoke with a unified pro-Israel voice.
AIPAC and other organizations were formed in the 1950s in response to the 'bad PR' Israel received from the Qibya massacre during the Eisenhower years, which led to a suspension of US aid.
3Israel's Cold War Strategic Rebranding
After 1948, Israel strategically fashioned itself as a crucial weapon in the fight against Soviet communism. This rebranding, particularly solidified under Nixon and Kissinger in the 1970s, transformed Israel into a major US strategic partner, leading to a dramatic increase in military aid and cooperation. This shift helped overcome earlier perceptions of Israel as a 'suspiciously socialist' state.
The Zionist lobby quickly realized Israel would be integrated long-term if it 'began to fashion itself as a weapon in the fight against Soviet communism.' Nixon and Kissinger's administration in 1973 airlifted 20,000 tons of material to Israel during the Arab-Israeli war, solidifying its role as a Cold War ally.
4Republican Presidents' Willingness to Challenge Israel
Historically, Republican presidents like Ronald Reagan and George H.W. Bush demonstrated a greater willingness to challenge Israeli actions than many of their Democratic counterparts. Reagan, despite being pro-Israel, confronted Prime Minister Begin over the 1982 Lebanon invasion, even calling it a 'holocaust.' George H.W. Bush withheld billions in loan guarantees to pressure Israel to halt settlement expansion in the West Bank, a move that would be unthinkable for many modern presidents.
Reagan threatened Prime Minister Begin on the phone, saying the Lebanon invasion 'looks like a holocaust' (). George H.W. Bush withheld loan guarantees in 1991 to prevent their use for West Bank settlements, exasperated by Israeli actions.
5The Lobby's Role in Undermining US Strategic Interests
The Israel lobby's influence has grown to a point where it can override US strategic interests, as exemplified by its successful campaign to scrap the Iran nuclear deal (JCPOA). This action, driven by Israel's short-sighted goals, is seen as a self-destructive move for broader US foreign policy, leading to a prolonged and costly conflict with Iran.
The Israel lobby 'completely blew up' the JCPOA, a 'strategic high mark for the US in this whole standoff with Iran,' due to their 'short-sighted interest in their own goals.'
Bottom Line
The 'deep state' (intelligence community, DoD) often holds a more pragmatic and critical view of Israel's strategic value to the US compared to the political leadership, recognizing how Israeli actions can complicate US objectives and create problems on the ground.
This suggests a persistent internal tension within the US government regarding the Israel relationship, where operational realities often clash with political expediency and lobbying influence. Understanding this divide can help explain policy inconsistencies and the frustration expressed by career intelligence officials.
Future policy analyses could focus on declassifying or analyzing internal intelligence assessments of the US-Israel relationship to expose the full extent of this strategic divergence and inform public debate on the true costs and benefits of the alliance.
The integration of the Zionist project into American foreign policy accelerated dramatically after the Iran nuclear deal (JCPOA) was scrapped by Trump, largely due to the Israel lobby's influence, leading to a 'double dip' where the lobby also secured a 'zealot' as the Democratic Senate leader.
This highlights a recent, significant escalation in the Israel lobby's power, demonstrating its ability to not only dismantle a major US diplomatic achievement but also to exert influence over leadership positions within both major US political parties, further entrenching its agenda.
Investigate the specific mechanisms and financial flows that enabled the Israel lobby to achieve such a 'double dip' victory post-JCPOA, and analyze how this model could be applied or resisted by other foreign interest groups in the current political climate.
Key Concepts
Contingency in History
The idea that historical events and relationships are not predetermined but are dependent on a multitude of interrelated factors and specific moments, rather than following a simple, linear path. This applies to the US-Israel relationship, which could have taken different 'off-ramps' at various points.
Domestic Politics Driving Foreign Policy
The concept that a nation's foreign policy decisions are often heavily influenced, if not primarily driven, by internal political considerations such as election cycles, coalition building, and voter demographics, rather than solely by well-thought-out international strategic theories.
Special Interest Lobbying
The model where well-resourced, organized groups exert significant influence on political decisions by leveraging financial contributions, public relations, and direct engagement with policymakers, often leading to policies that serve specific interests over broader national or strategic goals.
Lessons
- Resist binary narratives about the US-Israel relationship; instead, seek nuanced, historically informed explanations that account for multiple, often contradictory, factors.
- Recognize the significant and growing influence of the Israel lobby (e.g., AIPAC) on US foreign policy decisions, understanding that this influence can sometimes override broader US strategic interests.
- Examine how domestic political considerations, such as electoral needs and coalition building, have historically shaped and continue to shape US foreign policy, particularly in the Middle East.
Notable Moments
Truman's domestic advisors, particularly Clark Clifford, convinced him to support the creation of a Jewish state by emphasizing the necessity of the Jewish vote in New York for his re-election and the preservation of the New Deal coalition.
This moment illustrates how domestic political calculations, rather than purely strategic foreign policy objectives, played a foundational role in the US's initial support for Israel, setting a precedent for future interactions.
The 1953 Qibya massacre by Israeli forces led to negative global media coverage and prompted Eisenhower to suspend aid to Israel, which in turn spurred the formation of AIPAC and other pro-Israel lobbying groups to manage public perception and political influence.
This event was a critical turning point, demonstrating that early Israeli actions could generate international backlash and directly catalyzing the organized effort to build a powerful lobby in the US, fundamentally altering the dynamics of the relationship.
Reagan's strong condemnation of Israel's 1982 invasion of Lebanon, where he reportedly told Prime Minister Begin it 'looks like a holocaust,' and George H.W. Bush's decision to withhold loan guarantees over settlements.
These instances highlight rare moments of significant 'daylight' where US presidents actively challenged Israeli actions, demonstrating that such resistance was historically possible, even if ultimately short-lived, and contrasting sharply with the current lack of pushback from US leadership.
Quotes
"I don't find that persuasive. I don't know in that case why they steal secrets from the US, why they have more spies than most other countries concentrated over the decades at the US. I don't know why they sabotage US policy so often."
"The Israel lobby in the United States is a historically significant discrete political influence on American policy and political life at all levels."
"Very often, domestic politics and domestic political considerations are what drive foreign policy strategy, not particularly well thought-out theories of the world."
"Reagan said, 'You're committing a holocaust, knock it off.' And and you know, like there was a diff there was a qualitative difference in the rhetoric."
"The toughest presidents on Israel that we've been talking about... have been Republican presidents."
"The Israel lobby has completely blown it up because of their like short-sighted interest in their own goals. And I think that they, you know, it's there there is a real um the way the only reason they're even able to achieve the self-destructive stuff is because of like the resources that they're willing to leverage and that our system lets them leverage."
"We do things for that country that we would not do for any other country. You know, diplomatically, politically, we stake a lot on them."
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