Lt Col. Anthony Aguilar: Hormuz Is the Graveyard of Israel’s Regional Ambitions

The core of the US-Iran Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) hinges on Israel's complete withdrawal from Lebanon (MOU Point 1). Iran explicitly states that progress on other points, including the nuclear program (Point 13) and the Strait of Hormuz, is contingent upon the full and permanent cessation of Israeli military activity and occupation in Lebanon. Any talk of a 'symbolic withdrawal' is considered meaningless and an attempt to avoid genuine compliance.

The host notes that the Iranian delegation's main point is addressing clause number 13, which is tied to number one. Lt. Col. Aguilar states, 'Number one clearly dictates the ending of all war on all fronts immediately and permanently.' He later asks, 'Have the Israeli forces left back to Israel and they're out of Lebanon? Well, okay, see you tomorrow.'

Lt. Col. Aguilar criticizes the US proposal of a 'deconfliction mechanism' or 'deconfliction cell' for Lebanon as a superficial, tactical approach that fails to address the fundamental strategic diplomatic problem: Israel's occupation. He argues that such cells are designed for tactical communication to prevent accidental escalation in complex military environments (like Syria) but do not resolve the underlying cause of conflict, which is the presence of an occupying force.

J.D. Vance describes setting up a 'deconfliction mechanism' (00:20:57). Lt. Col. Aguilar responds, 'That is a very military approach to a sensitive diplomatic problem.' He explains its use in Syria for 'tactical deconfliction' but asserts, 'It doesn't do anything to address the actual strategic implication of the diplomatic problem, which is leave Lebanon.'

Iran holds a powerful negotiating card through its demonstrated ability to control or administratively manage the Strait of Hormuz. This strategic waterway is vital for global oil flow. While the US seeks to keep the strait open, Iran can leverage its territorial ownership and control capabilities to demand concessions, particularly regarding Israel's actions in Lebanon, before ensuring free passage.

The host mentions Iran is 'talking with Omani government, it's all about how to manage the Strait of Hormuz' (00:00:40). Lt. Col. Aguilar states, 'Iran can do both in terms of the Strait of Hormuz. They have demonstrated that they can control.' and 'Iran holds that card.'

The ongoing conflict and negotiations highlight a global shift from a unipolar (US-dominated) to a multipolar world. Regional powers like Pakistan are stepping up as pragmatic mediators, leveraging their relationships with multiple global and regional actors (US, China, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Turkey) to foster stability and secure their own self-interests. This trend suggests a future where nations independently shape regional security architectures without sole reliance on US presence or defense guarantees.

Lt. Col. Aguilar describes Pakistan's role as 'from a very real and pragmatic position' (00:42:21). He states, 'This war precipitated that and accelerated the fact that now it's coming to the fore much quicker to where other regional partners have to realize that we better we need to step up in this, and you see Pakistan doing that.' He refers to Pakistan as 'the type O negative blood type of the region, right? The universal donor.'