Patrick Henningsen: Iran’s CHILLING Message to Trump – Ships Turning Back Near Hormuz

The speaker contends that the US initiated recent phone calls with Russia and a ceasefire with Iran, interpreting these actions as a sign of panic from the White House following a meeting between the Iranian Foreign Minister and Vladimir Putin. This suggests the US is reacting to, rather than controlling, the geopolitical narrative and events.

The most important question, Nima, is who initiated the call? ... I think the answer to both of those questions is the same. It's the United States. So, it's very important who initiated the call. And I think it was... a panic phone call from the White House after the meeting with Abbas Araghchi and Vladimir Putin in St. Petersburg.

Iran possesses high-altitude missiles capable of mid-flight redirection and hitting moving targets, likely naval vessels. Combined with Russia's satellite data and AI-driven analysis (similar to US 'shadow fleet' tracking), Iran can profile US destroyers and aircraft carriers, making them vulnerable the longer they remain in the region.

He said, you know, we have we have missiles high-altitude missiles that can redirect mid-flight and can change direction multiple times and hit moving targets. So, I'm sure he was referring to naval vessels in that sense. So, in the age of AI, that is just basically, Nima, a question of data. ... it can predict movement up to 95% probability.

The US military's margin of error and strike window for an attack on Iran are diminishing due to a lack of forward staging facilities and the recall of a carrier strike group (USS Gerald Ford). This suggests a potential two-week 'hammer blow' campaign would be short, costly, and difficult to sustain, making a clear victory unlikely.

Their margin of error militarily is much less, and also their strike window would also be less. So, you're looking at a two-week campaign... The USS Gerald Ford was recalled this weekend or early this week back to Norfolk, Virginia.

The speaker differentiates Iran from Syria, stating that sanctions and economic warfare tactics, while effective in collapsing the Syrian state over 12 years, will not work against Iran. Iran's resilience stems from its stronger domestic industry, robust institutions, and overland alliances with trading partners like Iraq and Russia.

They haven't worked against Russia. And but they did they did work against Syria. But it took it took 12 years... They're not going to get that result with Iran. Iran is more similar to Russia in this sense is that it's it's a much bigger, much more resilient... has more resilient institutions. It has a much more resilient domestic industry... And also, it has overland allies and trading partners, namely Iraq, Pakistan... Russia's not far away from Iran.

Contrary to Western public perception, the US and Israel are not independent actors but are 'absolutely fused together and working as one kind of effort,' coordinating military attacks on Iran and Lebanon. This deception allows the US to play a 'performative diplomatic game' while Israel leverages US-focused conflicts as a distraction.

US and Israel are joint partners. They're coordinating their military attacks on Iran. And the US is coordinating with Israel to to attack Lebanon. They're not independent actors not at all. ... this part of the deception of all this is to get the public in the West to separate the United States from Israel militarily when in fact they're absolutely fused together and working as one kind of effort.

The 'disastrous policy' of both the Biden and Trump administrations, particularly their aggressive stances, has inadvertently strengthened Russia and Iran. These nations are learning to be more capable, independent, and are improving their military-industrial complexes, leading to a new era of power for them.

But from the point of view of Russians and Iranians, they're just learning how capable they are and how can be you know, more powerful, how can they change their future. ... how they made Russia a superpower power it's even stronger than before it was it was before this war started in Ukraine. And Iran. I see the same thing happening to Iran.