Pravin Sawhney: The Hammer Falls: The Persian Gulf's Status Quo Just Got CRUSHED
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Summary
Takeaways
- ❖India maintains a dual alignment, being a full BRICS member while also seeking closeness with the G7, US, and Israel, which is viewed with skepticism by other BRICS nations.
- ❖China's foreign minister, Wang Yi, used the BRICS NSA meeting for significant sideline discussions, particularly emphasizing strengthening regional frameworks in West Asia and promoting India-China partnership over competition.
- ❖The Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) has evolved from a security-focused body to include development, planning its own bank, and focusing on the Eurasian landmass.
- ❖The Palestine issue is seen as having a greater chance of resolution in the new multipolar world order, driven by regional frameworks and the support of Russia, China, and Iran.
- ❖Europe faces significant challenges, including the survival of NATO, a lack of independent foreign policy, and economic decline, as its leadership struggles to adapt to a multipolar world.
- ❖Iran's military strategy, developed over decades, emphasizes missile supremacy and asymmetric warfare, proving highly effective against distant adversaries and sanctions.
- ❖The 'Global South,' largely aligned with China's Belt and Road Initiative, is emerging as a powerful alternative to the West, leveraging Chinese technology in AI and digital infrastructure.
- ❖A new regional security architecture is forming in West Asia, involving countries like Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Turkey, with a focus on collective security and trade in local currencies.
Insights
1India's Strategic Ambiguity in a Multipolar World
India, despite being a full member of BRICS and its New Development Bank, actively seeks to align with the G7, US, and Israel. This dual approach leads to perceptions, even from US officials like Marco Rubio, that India favors the American side within BRICS, potentially undermining its standing within the bloc. This reflects India's attempt to balance its economic and strategic interests between emerging Eastern blocs and established Western powers.
Marco Rubio's remark at a congressional hearing that India 'in BRICS it is always on our side on issues it favors our side' highlights this perception. Ram Madav's article advocating for an 'Indo-Mediterranean' or 'Indo-Atlantic' foreign policy further illustrates this Western lean.
2China's Strategic Use of BRICS Sidelines and Belt and Road Influence
The BRICS NSA meeting's true significance lay in the sideline bilateral meetings, particularly those conducted by China's Foreign Minister Wang Yi. These meetings, especially with UAE, focused on strengthening regional frameworks in West Asia and leveraging China's extensive influence through the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), which has all GCC countries on board. China uses BRI to provide critical infrastructure (hard and digital) and AI technology, cementing its economic and strategic ties.
Wang Yi's meetings with Russian counterparts and the UAE National Security Council Secretary General, where he emphasized strengthening regional frameworks in West Asia and the need for India and China to be partners, not competitors.
3Evolution of SCO and BRICS: From Security to Development and Global Reach
The Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), initially a security-focused body targeting 'terrorism, separatism, and extremism,' is expanding into economic development with the announcement of an SCO bank. This mirrors BRICS' global economic focus, with SCO addressing the Eurasian landmass (minus Western Europe) and BRICS operating globally. Both are critical institutions in the emerging new world order, integrating geopolitical and geoeconomic objectives.
The announcement of an SCO bank at the September 2025 summit in China, signaling a shift from security to development. The host's observation that BRICS focused on economic issues while SCO focused on security, and the guest's explanation of their evolving roles.
4Palestine Issue Resolution in a Multipolar West Asia
The Palestine issue, historically unresolved due to bipolar and unipolar world structures, now has a 'great hope' for resolution within the new multipolar order. A regional framework in West Asia, involving countries like Iran, Russia, and China, is emerging, where all regional players recognize that peace requires resolving the Palestine issue. China's efforts to unite Palestinian factions and its consistent advocacy for a two-state solution underscore this potential.
The Chinese bringing together 14 Palestinian factions in Beijing in 2024 to discuss self-governance, and their repeated calls for a two-state solution based on 1967 borders with East Jerusalem as capital. Iran's clear stance that Israel's 'Greater Israel' dream will only end with the Palestine issue's resolution.
5Europe's Strategic Vulnerability and NATO's Crisis
Europe faces significant strategic challenges, primarily the survival of NATO, which is a key agenda item for the upcoming NATO summit in Ankara. European nations are under pressure from the US to increase defense spending and 'heavy lifting,' having already spent $1.3 trillion on US arms to counter Russia. Despite its economic and technological assets, Europe lacks an independent foreign policy and is seen as declining sharply, failing to adapt to the changing global landscape.
NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte's conversation with President Trump, revealing 4,000-5,000 US flights from Italian bases in the West Asia war and Europe's $1.3 trillion spending on US arms. The guest's assertion that Europe's leadership cannot overcome 'Russophobia' and embrace collective security.
6Iran's Intelligent Military Strategy: Missile Supremacy and Asymmetric Warfare
Iran has developed an 'absolutely spectacular' military strategy, learning from decades of sanctions and past conflicts. Recognizing the distance to adversaries like Israel, Iran prioritized missile supremacy over air supremacy, investing judiciously in underground facilities, drones, and smart mines. This asymmetric approach, coupled with a 'unity of effort' among its regional allies (the 'resistance front'), has proven highly effective in controlling the Persian Gulf and challenging superior conventional forces.
Iran's shift from GPS to China's BeiDou system in 2026, its focus on ballistic and hypersonic missiles and drones, and its control of the Persian Gulf. The guest's praise for Iran's 'intelligent people' and their 'military strategy' crafted since the Iran-Iraq war.
7The Rise of the East: China's Technological and Economic Dominance
The 'rise of the East,' particularly China, offers a new alternative to the world, especially for the 'Global South.' China's Belt and Road Initiative, including its 'digital silk road' (hardware and software connectivity), is bringing advanced AI and Fourth Industrial Revolution technologies to developing countries. China is seen as leading in the application and commercialization of AI, driving new 'productive forces' and shaping global technology-driven geopolitics.
53 of 54 African countries are on board the BRI. China's 15th five-year plan (2026-2030) emphasizes AI in industries. The guest states, 'Chinese are ahead of Americans, way ahead of Americans' in AI applications.
Bottom Line
Iran's strategic decision to forgo nuclear weapons is a deliberate choice to foster regional trust and enable a collective security framework, rather than a sign of weakness.
This challenges the conventional Western narrative that nuclear capability is essential for regional power, suggesting that mutual trust and collective security can be a more potent form of influence in a multipolar world.
Policymakers should re-evaluate the incentives for non-proliferation, focusing on regional security guarantees and economic integration as alternatives to nuclear deterrence, especially in volatile regions.
The UN's headquarters should move from New York to a Global South country to symbolize and facilitate its reform and relevance in the new world order.
Relocating the UN headquarters would be a powerful symbolic and practical step towards de-Westernizing global governance, potentially increasing trust and participation from non-Western nations and reflecting the shift in global power.
Advocates for international institutional reform can champion this idea as a concrete action to modernize global governance structures and make them more representative of the multipolar world.
Europe's economic decline, despite its $20 trillion economy and technological assets, stems from its inability to forge an independent foreign policy and overcome 'Russophobia,' leaving it strategically vulnerable.
This suggests that economic power and technological prowess alone are insufficient for geopolitical influence if a region lacks strategic autonomy and is bound by outdated adversarial mindsets. Europe risks becoming a declining power if it cannot adapt.
European leaders could explore new models of collective security that include Russia and develop a truly independent foreign policy to secure its long-term economic and strategic interests, rather than solely relying on NATO and US leadership.
Key Concepts
Multipolar World Order
The concept that global power is distributed among multiple major poles (e.g., US, China, Russia) rather than being concentrated in one (unipolar) or two (bipolar), leading to new alliances, regional frameworks, and challenges to existing international institutions.
Asymmetric Warfare
A military strategy where weaker combatants leverage unconventional tactics, technology (e.g., missiles, drones), and geographical advantages to counter the superior conventional forces of an adversary, as demonstrated by Iran in the Persian Gulf.
Collective Security vs. Alliance-Based Security
The contrast between a system where all regional actors collaborate to ensure mutual security (collective security, as proposed for West Asia and by Russia for Europe) versus security derived from exclusive military alliances (like NATO), which can be perceived as adversarial.
Lessons
- Monitor the evolution of BRICS and SCO beyond economic and security functions, as their expansion into development and banking signals a fundamental shift in global governance and financial architecture.
- Analyze military strategies through the lens of asymmetric warfare and missile supremacy, recognizing that traditional air superiority may be less decisive against adversaries employing advanced missile and drone technologies, as demonstrated by Iran and Russia.
- Evaluate regional security frameworks in West Asia and other emerging blocs, understanding that local ownership and consensus-building among regional players are increasingly replacing external intervention as the primary drivers of stability and conflict resolution.
Notable Moments
Marco Rubio's public statement that India 'in BRICS it is always on our side on issues it favors our side' during a congressional hearing for the American ambassador to India.
This statement publicly exposed the US perception of India's alignment within BRICS, highlighting India's complex geopolitical balancing act and potentially causing friction with other BRICS members.
China's Foreign Minister Wang Yi's repeated assertion to India that 'India and China they should be partners. They should not be competitors,' despite India's desire to compete.
This reveals China's strategic messaging to India, aiming to de-escalate rivalry and foster cooperation within the BRICS framework, while acknowledging India's competitive stance.
The NATO Secretary General revealing that 4,000-5,000 US flights took off from Italian bases during the West Asia war.
This highlights the extensive, yet often understated, involvement of European NATO members in US military operations, underscoring Europe's deep entanglement in US foreign policy despite its own stated positions or public perceptions.
Quotes
"India basically in BRICS it is always on our side on issues it favors our side."
"India and China they should be partners. They should not be competitors."
"You cannot build your security at the expense of insecurity of others."
Q&A
Recent Questions
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