Iranian American Scholars Denounce U.S.-Israeli Attack, Warn Regime Change Efforts Will Backfire
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Summary
Takeaways
- ❖The US-Israeli war on Iran has caused over 550 reported deaths, including Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and other high-ranking officials.
- ❖An Israeli airstrike reportedly killed 165 people, mostly girls, at an elementary school in Minab, southern Iran.
- ❖Iran retaliated by launching missiles at Israel and US allies/bases in the UAE, Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, and Cyprus.
- ❖Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi stated that regime change is 'mission impossible' and that Iran's political system remains stable despite the leader's death.
- ❖Scholars warn that these attacks destroy the space for internal Iranian struggles for social justice and civil liberties.
- ❖A three-person leadership council has been formed in Iran to manage state affairs and promote stability following the leadership losses.
- ❖The Iranian government has cut internet access, leading to a flood of misinformation and hindering accurate reporting from inside the country.
- ❖Professor Birous Gamari Trees, a former political prisoner, strongly opposes the war, arguing it is not in the interest of the United States and serves primarily Israeli interests.
- ❖Reza Pahlavi, son of the former Shah, is characterized as an 'Israeli-American project' lacking institutional support within Iran and requiring significant external military backing to assume power.
Insights
1US-Israeli Attacks Cause Widespread Casualties and Civilian Harm
The US and Israeli military actions in Iran have resulted in over 550 reported deaths, including the 86-year-old Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and other top military and defense officials. Initial attacks included a strike on a girls' elementary school in Minab, killing 165 people, predominantly children. Civilian infrastructure, including hospitals, has been hit, and people are sheltering in Iran-Iraq war-era bunkers.
Host's introduction (, , , ), Professor Nikpor (, , )
2Iran's Political System is Resilient to Leadership Changes
Despite the assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi asserted that the demise of a leader does not equate to regime change. He highlighted Iran's well-established political system, rich constitution, and functional state institutions. A three-person leadership council, including President Masion, Ayatollah Ali Adafi, and Chief Justice Kam Hussein Moseni, has been formed to manage day-to-day affairs and ensure stability, with Ali Larijani also playing a significant role.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi (), Professor Nikpor (), Professor Gamari ()
3External Intervention Undermines Internal Iranian Reform Movements
Professor Birous Gamari Trees, a former political prisoner, argues that US-Israeli attacks cause immense suffering and actively destroy the space in which Iranians have been struggling for social justice and civil liberties for decades. He emphasizes that Iranian society has shown capacity for self-transformation through women's activism, labor movements, and student protests, and that toppling the government without a clear alternative would only diminish these organic struggles.
Professor Gamari Trees (, , )
4Reza Pahlavi Lacks Internal Support and Requires Foreign Military Intervention
Both Professor Gamari Trees and Professor Golar Nikpor characterize Reza Pahlavi, son of the former Shah, as an 'Israeli-American project.' They state he lacks organizational and institutional support within Iran, with his primary base being the diaspora. Nikpor highlights Pahlavi's own admission that he cannot imagine moving back to Iran full-time. They conclude that bringing Pahlavi to power would necessitate 'significant military investment on the part of outside powers' and 'boots on the ground' due to the absence of comparable institutional backing to the IRGC.
Professor Gamari Trees (), Professor Nikpor (, , , )
5Iran's Retaliation Aims for Regional and Global Escalation
Iran's retaliatory strikes, which included missiles targeting Israel and US bases in Gulf states, are primarily aimed at US military installations. Iran had forewarned these nations not to allow US attacks from their soil. The strategy is to expand the conflict into a regional war, making its impact felt globally by disrupting oil flow and compelling European nations to take a stance against what Iran perceives as an illegal act of aggression.
Professor Gamari Trees (, , )
Bottom Line
The US-Israeli attacks, framed as regime change efforts, are inadvertently creating martyrs and solidifying support for the current Iranian system among its followers.
The assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, who reportedly refused to leave his office, is being celebrated by his supporters as an act of defiance and martyrdom, potentially galvanizing loyalty rather than weakening the regime.
Analysts should consider how external military actions can backfire by generating internal solidarity and legitimizing the targeted regime's narrative of resistance against foreign aggression, rather than fostering dissent.
The cutting of internet access by the Iranian government during the conflict creates a vacuum for misinformation and severely limits the ability to assess the true impact and internal response.
This information blackout means that external observers and even internal populations are subjected to a 'trickle rather than a flood' of information, making it difficult to discern facts from propaganda and understand the full scope of the humanitarian crisis or political shifts.
Develop and support secure, resilient communication channels for conflict zones that can resist government-imposed blackouts, enabling independent reporting and citizen communication during crises.
Lessons
- Critically evaluate narratives surrounding geopolitical conflicts, especially those involving regime change, by seeking out diverse perspectives from affected regions and independent scholars.
- Recognize that military interventions, even if framed as liberating, can inadvertently harm internal social justice movements and civilian populations, as highlighted by the situation in Iran.
- Understand the complex motivations behind retaliatory actions in regional conflicts, such as Iran's strategy to target US bases and disrupt global oil flow to escalate pressure on international actors.
Notable Moments
The host details the extensive casualties and infrastructure damage, including an Israeli airstrike on a girls' elementary school in Minab, killing 165 people.
This highlights the immediate and severe humanitarian impact of the conflict, emphasizing civilian casualties and the targeting of vulnerable populations.
Professor Gamari Trees, a former death row prisoner in Iran, explains his strong opposition to the war, arguing it destroys the space for internal Iranian struggles for social justice.
This provides a powerful, nuanced perspective from someone who has personally suffered under the Iranian regime but still condemns external military intervention, underscoring the complexity of the situation.
Professor Nikpor details the formation of a three-person leadership council in Iran and the government's efforts to project stability and manage the succession process.
This demonstrates the Iranian state's institutional resilience and preparedness for leadership transitions, challenging the notion that the regime would collapse easily after the Supreme Leader's death.
Quotes
"If their goal is change the regime, that is a mission impossible."
"These attacks are causing much suffering for Iranian people and it's destroying the space in which Iranians were struggling for social justice and civil liberties. This is exactly the opposite of what Iranians wished."
"Toppling the government without having a clear alternative only would damage those struggles that people have struggled to maintain throughout these past 40 years."
"This is a war that is not in the interest of the United States and is only fulfills and realizes the desires of a regime in Israel that that is promoting forever wars in the region."
Q&A
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