The Rural Vs. Urban Threat To Democracy w/ Suzanne Mettler | MR Live

The US political system, with features like the Senate (two senators per state regardless of population) and the Electoral College, inherently gives less populated places disproportionate power. This structure becomes anti-democratic when the party favored by these less populated areas consistently wins national power with a minority of the popular vote, as seen with Republican control of the Senate and judicial appointments.

California's population is 70 times Wyoming's, yet both get two senators. Republicans often win the Senate with states representing less than a majority of the US population. Donald Trump, who lost the popular vote, appointed Supreme Court justices confirmed by a Senate elected by a minority of Americans.

Contrary to common belief, the significant political divergence between rural and urban areas is not historical. Rural and urban counties voted similarly in presidential elections until the early 1990s. Since then, a dramatic gap has emerged, with rural areas increasingly supporting Republicans and urban areas (including suburbs and smaller cities) consolidating behind Democrats.

In 1992, there was only a 2-percentage-point gap between rural and urban counties in their vote for Bill Clinton. By 2024, this gap grew to 20 percentage points, evident across all US regions, especially the Midwest.

The growing political chasm is rooted in a combination of factors. First, economic decline in rural areas due to agricultural consolidation, deindustrialization, and changes in extractive industries. Second, a perception among rural residents of 'elite overreach' by Democrats, who are seen as affluent, disconnected, and imposing policies without consultation. Third, the decline of traditional Democratic-leaning organizations like labor unions in rural areas, replaced by Republican-aligned networks such as evangelical churches and NRA affiliates that connect voters to the GOP.

Counties losing jobs or population shifted Republican. Rural resentment stems from feeling ignored by Democrats on policies like renewable energy siting. The decline of union jobs and the rise of evangelical churches and gun clubs in rural areas provide new organizational links to the Republican Party.

While racism plays a role, the initial and primary driver of the rural-urban political divide among white voters was not racism itself. Instead, it was the rise of place-based economic inequality. Racism became more salient and concentrated in rural areas later, as a response to perceived neglect by the Democratic Party, which rural whites felt prioritized urban people of color over their own struggles.

The rural-urban political divide is not observed among people of color. In the late 1990s, racism was equally prevalent among non-Hispanic whites in urban and rural areas. It became slightly more concentrated in rural areas from 2008-2020, following the initial economic shifts, and is seen as a way rural people express feeling ignored by Democrats.

Despite the deep political polarization, rural and urban Americans hold very few significant differences in their views on most policy issues, including government spending and tax levels. Even on 'culture war' issues like abortion and gun rights, the gap is not as large as the voting divide and has not grown over time. The division is primarily driven by animosity towards the opposing political party rather than fundamental policy disagreements.

On most policy issues, there are no significant differences between rural and urban Americans. The gap on 'culture war' issues is smaller than the voting gap and has remained consistent. 'People dislike each other's political party. And there's an us versus them politics that has developed as a result of it.'