Everything That Can Go Right and Wrong In 2026

Alex Wagner predicts Democrats will retake the House, leading to immediate investigations into specific Trump White House officials. She names Pete Haggath (for 'boat murders'), Cash Patel (for FBI purges), and Pam Bondi (for Epstein-related issues) as potential targets. The discussion highlights concerns about officials defying subpoenas, the Justice Department's role under Trump, and the balance between accountability and political messaging.

Wagner states, 'I do think the Dems are going to take back the house... I'm interested to know which White House official becomes the subject of the first house investigation.' She then lists specific individuals and their alleged actions. Favro questions if officials will comply and what Democrats will do if they don't.

John Favro emphasizes that how midterm voters perceive the economy by summer 2026 will be highly correlated with their views on Donald Trump and their voting behavior. He notes that impressions harden two to three months before an election, and undecided voters, particularly those who supported Trump in 2024 but are now disillusioned, will be swayed by economic issues.

Favro asks, 'How do most midterm voters feel about the economy this summer?' and states, 'how voters feel about the economy is highly highly correlated with how they feel about Donald Trump... and will be highly correlated to how they vote.'

Alex Wagner raises concerns about the Supreme Court's decision regarding Trump's tariffs. She notes that Trump has claimed $600 billion in tariffs and promised to 'cut checks' to the public. However, over 1,000 companies, including major brands like Costco and Reebok, have preemptively sued the government to reclaim funds, anticipating the tariffs will be ruled unconstitutional. The legal and financial implications if the money has already been disbursed are significant.

Wagner asks, 'what happens with the Supreme Court and Trump's tariffs?' and cites Trump's claim of '$600 billion in tariffs' and the '1,000 companies [that] have already preemptively sued the federal government to get their money back'.

Favro highlights Trump's stated intention to send $2,000 tariff checks to Americans by the end of 2026, potentially without Congressional approval. He also points to Trump's upcoming appointment of a new Fed chair, who could be pressured to lower interest rates. A pending Supreme Court decision on the President's power to fire Federal Reserve members could further consolidate Trump's control over monetary policy, creating economic uncertainty.

Favro mentions Trump's plan to 'send $2,000 tariff checks... without Congress' and his intention to 'appoint a new Fed chair' who 'feels pressured to lower rates.' He also notes the SCOTUS decision on firing Fed members.

Alex Wagner questions the extent of Stephen Miller's domestic war against non-white populations and those who disagree with his ideology. She cites an Atlantic profile where Miller affirmed his desire for 'everyone [to] look exactly like you.' The hosts discuss the escalation of mass deportations, the defiance of courts, and the potential for denaturalization efforts targeting naturalized citizens, particularly those of Somali descent, despite legal complexities.

Wagner asks, 'how far will Steven Miller take his domestic war against people who don't look like him or believe what he believes?' and quotes Miller's 'That's correct' response to Trump's comment about everyone looking like him. Favro details the administration's request for a minimum number of denaturalization cases monthly.

Favro discusses the impact of the Trump-MAGA administration's war on independent and objective media. He points to the return of TikTok, the influence of Elon Musk's X and Grock, and the acquisition of CBS by Trump allies (Ellison's) as mechanisms to consolidate and weaponize the information landscape. The concern is how this will affect public opinion and the ability of genuine news-gathering organizations to operate without fear or bias.

Favro asks, 'what kind of impact will the Trump MAGA war on independent objective media have?' and cites examples like TikTok, X, Grock, and the Ellison's acquisition of CBS, noting the installation of figures like Barry Weiss and Tony Dopal.

Alex Wagner highlights the Supreme Court case 'Louisiana versus Kelly,' which threatens Section Two of the Voting Rights Act. She explains this could effectively end the VRA as known, allowing for districts that explicitly disadvantage minority voters. This decision, combined with the reversal of affirmative action and the administration's 'wokeism' rhetoric, poses a profound threat to inclusive society and civil rights gains.

Wagner states, 'I do wonder if we still have a representative democracy by the end of this year... Louisiana versus Kelly, uh where they're looking at section two of the Voting Rights Act, which is like probably the end of the Voting Rights Act as we know it.'

Favro questions whether a serious challenger will emerge to threaten JD Vance's bid for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination. He suggests Vance's extreme rhetoric (no enemies to his right) is a strategy to appeal to the far-right base, but his lack of charisma could make him vulnerable if Trump's popularity wanes. Potential challengers could be outsiders like Tucker Carlson, as Trump enjoys pitting his potential successors against each other.

Favro asks, 'will a challenger emerge who seriously threatens JD Vance's chance at the Republican nomination in 2028?' He describes Vance's strategy as 'no enemies to your right' and notes his lack of charisma compared to Trump.

Alex Wagner raises the urgent question of whether medication abortion will remain legal by the end of 2026. She points to Robert F. Kennedy Jr.'s politicization of the FDA and HHS, and the pledge to review Methopristone safety. Given that medication abortions account for 63% of all abortions, a ban would have severe national health implications, despite Trump's perceived political skittishness on the issue.

Wagner asks, 'Will medication abortion still be legal by the end of the year?' and cites RFK Jr.'s actions at the FDA and the pledge to 'conduct a full review of Methopristone safety.'

Favro questions if Gavin Newsom will remain the frontrunner for the Democratic nomination by early 2027. While acknowledging Newsom's effectiveness and national efforts, Favro expresses concern about Newsom's 'very California' image, citing specific state laws and personal details (like a mystic wedding officiant) that could be off-putting to a broader national electorate, especially in a party still defining its post-Trump identity.

Favro asks, 'Is Gavin Newsome still the frontrunner at this time next year?' and mentions the 'California of it all' as the 'biggest one for me.' He cites SP132 and Newsom's wedding officiated by a 'modern day mystic' as examples.

Alex Wagner discusses the ongoing and extensive physical rebuilding of the White House, including a taller ballroom, a West Wing addition for symmetry, and a reconstructed movie theater. She views this as symbolic of Trump's broader efforts to fundamentally change and 'rebuild' American institutions in his own image, suggesting the immense effort required to undo these changes after his administration.

Wagner asks, 'What will the White House actually look like?' and details plans for a 'ballroom... as tall as the main mansion itself,' a 'one-story addition to the West Wings colonade,' and a 'reconstructed White House movie theater.'

Favro questions how much America's 250th birthday in 2026 will matter, predicting it will become a significant event for the Trump administration to promote jingoism and bait 'America-hating libs.' He anticipates a national debate over the meaning of America and its celebration, with Trump controlling the narrative from the White House.

Favro asks, 'how much the birthday, the anniversary is going to matter in 2026?' and predicts 'a debate over the meaning of America, the meaning of what it is to celebrate America's 250th anniversary.'

Alex Wagner suggests that if Republicans become genuinely worried about losing the Senate, there could be retirement announcements from Supreme Court Justices Sam Alito and/or Clarence Thomas. This would allow Trump to nominate conservative replacements and push for their confirmation before a potential shift in Senate control, even during a lame-duck session.

Wagner states, 'You'll know that the Republicans are legitimately worried about losing the Senate... if we start getting retirement from announcement from our friends Sam Alo and or Clarence Thomas.'