Col. Larry Wilkerson: US Fighter Jets Target Iranian Speedboats in Persian Gulf
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Summary
Takeaways
- ❖The US-Iran conflict in the Persian Gulf escalated with US fighter jets attacking Iranian speedboats, followed by Iranian missile retaliation.
- ❖Col. Wilkerson describes US diplomacy under the current administration as a 'Trump method' driven by sanctions and military force, lacking genuine diplomatic engagement.
- ❖Wilkerson speculates that the 'Epstein files' may be a source of leverage influencing the Trump-Netanyahu relationship, potentially being withheld by Mossad.
- ❖Israel's aggressive military actions in Lebanon and Gaza are pushing boundaries, with Iran threatening to attack the UAE in response to further Israeli incursions into Lebanon.
- ❖The US military lacks a clearly articulated mission in its operations against Iran, leading to ineffective and purposeless actions.
- ❖The US military is experiencing politicization, exemplified by Apache helicopters flying over political events and investigations being halted for partisan reasons.
- ❖Iran is demanding the release of frozen assets and an end to Israeli 'slaughtering' as preconditions for negotiations, refusing to accept previous 'snapback sanctions' mechanisms.
- ❖Russia has escalated its warnings in the Ukraine conflict, conducting large nuclear exercises and threatening to target NATO countries supporting Ukraine's drone production.
- ❖Col. Wilkerson asserts that the US possesses ample rare earth minerals domestically, making the reliance on China a 'manufactured problem' for political gain, not a genuine scarcity issue.
Insights
1US-Iran 'Diplomacy' is Kinetic Action, Not Dialogue
Col. Wilkerson asserts that the US approach to Iran, particularly under the current administration, is not genuine diplomacy but a cycle of sanctions and military force. There is no direct contact between US and Iranian diplomats; instead, 'good offices' like the UAE, Pakistan, and Oman are used as intermediaries, which is not true negotiation.
The host details US fighter jets attacking Iranian speedboats, followed by Iranian anti-ship missile responses and drone hits. Wilkerson states, 'There is no diplomacy going on, Nema. Period. There is no diplomacy going on. There's only a pronouncement here and a pronouncement here and then a BB in the center saying I don't like that. I'll start the bombing again.'
2Israel's Aggression Risks Broader Regional War
Israel's military actions in Lebanon and Gaza, including crossing 'yellow lines' and targeting civilians, are escalating tensions. Iran has issued a direct threat, stating that any attack by Israel in Lebanon will be met with Iranian retaliation against the UAE, a close Israeli ally.
The host notes Israel 'going beyond the yellow line' in Lebanon and Gaza. Wilkerson adds, 'Every attack you do in Lebanon will be responded to by us attacking UAE. We will go after the UAE until there's no UAE left as long as you're in Lebanon attacking.'
3US Military Lacks a Defined Mission in Iran
The US military's actions in the Persian Gulf lack a clear, articulated mission from the President. Senior military leaders struggle to define objectives beyond simply 'dropping bombs,' leading to operations that are ineffective in achieving stated goals like bringing Iran to its knees or stopping its nuclear program.
Wilkerson questions, 'What is the mission, Donald Trump? Mr. President, what is the mission you gave to your military... to accomplish? I bet you Trump can't answer that question.' He lists failed objectives: 'to bring the Iranians to their knees? Failed. to destroy Iran failed. To destroy their ballistic missiles, failed. To stop the nuclear program, failed.'
4Politicization Undermines US Military Accountability
The US military is being politicized, with incidents like Apache helicopters flying over partisan events (e.g., Kid Rock's house) and subsequent military investigations (15-6 investigations) being halted by political figures. This interference compromises the military's non-partisan role and accountability.
Wilkerson describes two Apache helicopters flying near a 'no kings event' and then over Kid Rock's house, a strong MAGA supporter. He notes that when an army investigation was opened, it was 'ordered stopped' by Hegset, with General Kaine dismissing questions as 'partisan.'
5Trump's Leadership: Grifter, Not Competent Statesman
President Trump operates similarly to FDR in centralizing power and disregarding established structures, but without FDR's competence or political mastery. Trump's primary motivation and skill lie in 'making illicit sums of money' for his family, rather than effective governance or national defense.
Wilkerson states, 'He is operating in the same way Roosevelt did it. And he's in a first class idiot.' He adds, 'The only talent Donald Trump has is making illicit sums of money in gargantuan proportions.'
6Russia Signals Nuclear Escalation in Ukraine
Russia is growing fatigued with Western support for Ukraine and is signaling a willingness to escalate the conflict significantly. This includes potential strikes on Ukrainian leadership (Zelensky) and a clear warning to NATO, backed by a large-scale nuclear force exercise, indicating a readiness for broader conflict, potentially involving nuclear weapons.
Wilkerson notes Lavrov's statements and Putin's backing, suggesting Russia will 'put enough arashnik on key targets in Kev that we're going to get Zalinski.' He highlights Russia's 'largest nuclear force exercise since the Soviet Union' as a signal, 'I'm ready. I've made my decision. I'm going to have to go to war with you, NATO, to make my point.'
Bottom Line
The US is indirectly paying Iran through GCC countries (like Qatar) to release frozen assets, masking direct US concessions and potentially creating complex financial dependencies.
This arrangement indicates US willingness to make significant concessions to Iran, but through a convoluted mechanism that could obscure the true costs and leverage dynamics, potentially weakening US negotiating positions long-term.
Analysts should scrutinize financial flows and agreements involving third-party nations in US-Iran negotiations to understand the true economic and political costs and benefits for all involved, identifying hidden liabilities or benefits.
Turkey, despite public anti-Israel sentiment, continues to supply oil to Israel, but could be drawn into the escalating regional conflict, potentially shifting its geopolitical alignment.
Erdogan's current actions are contradictory to Turkish public opinion, but a significant escalation in Lebanon or Gaza could force Turkey to intervene, potentially destabilizing NATO's southern flank and introducing a powerful new actor into the conflict.
Monitor Turkey's domestic political pressure and military posturing in response to Middle East escalations. Businesses with investments or supply chains in the region should assess the risk of Turkey's potential involvement and its impact on regional stability.
The perceived scarcity of rare earth minerals for the US is largely a 'manufactured problem' for political purposes, as the US possesses abundant domestic reserves that are unexploited due to environmental and economic reasons.
This suggests that the narrative of critical mineral dependence on China is exaggerated for political leverage. In a crisis, the US would likely override environmental concerns to extract domestic resources, fundamentally altering the supply chain landscape.
Companies and policymakers should re-evaluate long-term supply chain strategies for critical minerals, considering the potential for rapid domestic extraction under different political or wartime conditions, rather than solely focusing on foreign sources.
Key Concepts
Trump Method of Diplomacy
This model describes a diplomatic approach characterized by the primary use of sanctions and military force, often without direct, substantive negotiation. It involves kinetic actions and economic pressure as integral parts of 'diplomacy,' rather than as tools to support a diplomatic process, leading to cycles of escalation.
No Plan Outlasts Contact with the Enemy
A military adage emphasizing that initial plans rarely survive the realities of engagement. It underscores the importance of adaptability and having a clear, achievable mission rather than simply executing actions without a defined purpose or measurable objective.
Purpose-Driven Military Missions
Effective military missions require two core components: the kinetic action (what to do) and the strategic purpose (why to do it). Without a clear purpose, military actions become aimless, ineffective, and potentially counterproductive, failing to achieve desired political or strategic outcomes.
Lessons
- Demand clear, articulated missions for military engagements to ensure accountability and strategic effectiveness, rather than allowing 'kinetic action' without purpose.
- Advocate for genuine diplomatic channels and direct engagement in international conflicts, moving beyond a reliance on sanctions and military force as the sole 'negotiating' tools.
- Scrutinize and resist the politicization of military institutions to preserve their non-partisan integrity and operational focus, ensuring they serve national security interests, not political agendas.
Notable Moments
The host details an immediate escalation between Iran and the US, where US fighter jets attacked Iranian speedboats, resulting in four Iranian sailors killed, followed by Iranian anti-ship missile responses and the downing of a US MQ9 drone.
This specific sequence of events highlights the immediate and dangerous nature of the conflict, demonstrating a rapid escalation from initial US action to Iranian retaliation, underscoring the volatility of the region.
Col. Wilkerson discusses the 'yellow line' tactic used by Israel in Gaza and Lebanon, where they continuously redraw boundaries to justify further incursions and killings.
This reveals a deliberate strategy by Israel to expand its operational territory and justify military actions, making any concept of a stable border or ceasefire increasingly meaningless and contributing to ongoing conflict.
Col. Wilkerson recounts an incident where two Apache helicopters flew over a 'no kings event' in Nashville and then to Kid Rock's house, a strong MAGA supporter, leading to an army investigation that was subsequently halted.
This incident serves as a concrete example of the politicization of the US military, where lethal equipment is used in a partisan manner and attempts at accountability are suppressed, raising concerns about military integrity.
Quotes
"We get into diplomacy and we feel like that part of the diplomacy this is the only way we can operate anymore Nema is sanctions and military force military force and sanctions... That's the only way we know how to negotiate. The only way we know how to deal."
"No plan outlasts contact with the enemy. What you want to answer is, are you accomplishing your mission? And oh, by the way, Admiral, what is your mission?"
"What is your mission? Just tell me what your mission is. Is your mission to drop bombs on Iran whenever the president of the United States tells you to? What kind of mission is that?"
"If you kill one Israeli, we kill a hundred Palestinians. If you kill one Israeli, we kill 50 Hezbollah. And by the way, as we're killing them, we'll tear down a hundred Lebanese homes. That's the way they operate."
"He is operating in the same way Roosevelt did it. And he's in a first class idiot."
"We're playing with fire. Truly, we're playing with fire. Maybe nuclear fire. And we're doing it in a listless, not paying attention, stupid, ironic even way."
Q&A
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