Larry C. Johnson: Iran Just Leveled Up
Quick Read
Summary
Takeaways
- ❖US-Iran negotiations are 'Kabuki theater' designed to justify an unprovoked US attack on Iran.
- ❖The US is 'grossly underestimating' Iran's anti-ship missile capabilities and its ability to defend against a large-scale attack.
- ❖Iran's internal nationalism, particularly among Persian and Azeri populations, has strengthened, not weakened, in response to external pressures.
- ❖A trilateral security and economic agreement between Iran, Russia, and China (signed Jan 29th) provides Iran with a robust economic and military 'road forward'.
- ❖Russia's negotiating position on Ukraine has escalated, now aiming to incorporate historical 'Novorossiya' territories (including Odessa, Nikolav, Kharkif) into Russia.
- ❖Ukraine's requests for a ceasefire are seen as attempts to 'reload, rearm, refit' and will not be accepted by Russia.
- ❖European powers are 'irrelevant' in current geopolitical dynamics, failing to offer viable solutions or act as credible negotiators.
Bottom Line
The US military's reliance on Tomahawk cruise missiles and F-35s against Iran may be severely hampered by Iran's potential electronic warfare capabilities, reportedly supplied by China and Russia, which can disrupt GPS targeting systems.
This suggests a potential for significant US military asset losses and a protracted conflict, undermining the 'quick war' scenario favored by the US and Israel.
Defense contractors specializing in electronic warfare countermeasures or alternative targeting systems could see increased demand. Intelligence agencies need to reassess the effectiveness of Western precision-guided munitions in contested environments.
The host notes a significant shift in Iranian official sentiment, moving 'all the way to the east, all the way to Russia and China,' indicating a complete abandonment of engagement hopes with the West.
This signals a hardening of Iran's geopolitical alignment, making future Western diplomatic efforts increasingly futile and solidifying a new anti-Western bloc.
Businesses and nations seeking to engage with Iran should pivot towards an 'East-first' strategy, leveraging relationships with Russia and China as intermediaries or direct partners.
Larry Johnson uses a 'Monty Python' analogy to describe Ukraine's territorial losses, where Russia is systematically 'lopping off appendages' (territories) after Ukraine rejected earlier, more favorable peace deals.
This frames Russia's strategy as a relentless, escalating territorial conquest, implying Ukraine's eventual collapse or reduction to a rump state, rather than a stalemate or negotiated return to pre-war borders.
Analysts should focus on Russia's historical territorial claims and military advances to predict future annexations, rather than solely on current front lines. Investors should consider the long-term geopolitical remapping of Eastern Europe.
Lessons
- Monitor US military deployments and rhetoric regarding Iran for signs of an 'unprovoked strike,' as current negotiations are framed as a pretext.
- Re-evaluate the military capabilities of non-Western nations, particularly Iran, in light of potential electronic warfare advancements and anti-access/area denial (A2/AD) strategies.
- Analyze the implications of the Iran-Russia-China trilateral agreement, as it signals a significant shift in global power dynamics and economic resilience for sanctioned states.
Notable Moments
Discussion on the actual number and range of US Tomahawk missiles and destroyers, correcting the host's initial figures and highlighting limitations.
This grounds the military discussion in realistic capabilities, challenging inflated perceptions of US power and setting the stage for arguments about US overestimation.
Larry Johnson's assertion that US-Iran negotiations are 'Kabuki theater' designed to create a public impression of good faith before an attack.
This frames the entire diplomatic effort as a cynical maneuver, suggesting a predetermined path to conflict and undermining the credibility of official statements.
The guest and host agree that Iranian nationalism has strengthened, not weakened, in response to external pressure, challenging the Western narrative of internal dissent.
This suggests that Western strategies relying on internal regime change in Iran are misinformed and likely to backfire, potentially solidifying support for the current government.
The detailed explanation of Russia's escalating demands in Ukraine, from initial protection of Russian speakers to the full incorporation of 'Novorossiya' territories.
This provides a clear trajectory of Russia's war aims, indicating that Ukraine's territorial losses are likely to be permanent and extensive, and that earlier peace opportunities were missed.
Quotes
"The United States is grossly, grossly underestimating Iran's capability to sink ships."
"This is Kabuki theater. This is scripted. And it's designed to create an impression among the public that the United States tried in good faith to negotiate with those wily Iranians and Iran refused to negotiate. That's that's the storyline that's going to be presented."
"The events of the last 8 months since June of 2025 has strengthened the nationalist sentiment, not weakened it."
"If I'm an Iranian military planner, the first hint that the United States is going to start attacking us, I take all those places out. I mean, take them out, saturate them, destroy them, and in the process launch massive missile waves on the ships."
"The Europeans will be the Brits will participate but and and Italy will allow its territory to be used for overflights for US combat aircraft but I don't see Germany and others wanting to engage in helping to try to topple Iran."
"The only way that Donald Trump could have some sort of upper hand would be a quick war, something that happens quickly, not too much because if it takes time as time goes by the United States going to lose its leverage."
"Iran and Russia and China signed a trilateral agreement on I believe it was January 29th. Now that's significant."
"The West is standing by allowing the Palestinian people to be slaughtered, murdered and then then they assemble at something like the Munich Security Conference and just they don't acknowledge that the rise of BRICS and the rise of the global south is making them increasingly irrelevant."
"Russia will keep it up until there's no Ukraine left."
Q&A
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