Seyed M. Marandi & Larry Johnson: Iran Demands Lebanon Withdrawal as U.S. Pushes for Open Hormuz

Donald Trump's Truth Social post demanding Iran cease support for "highly paid proxies in Lebanon" and threatening severe retaliation directly caused Iranian negotiators to walk out of talks in Switzerland. This action violated the first clause of the existing Memorandum of Understanding (MOU).

Donald Trump today was something he did something amazing... Iran must immediately stop their highly paid proxies in Lebanon from causing trouble. If they don't, we will hit Iran very hard again, just like we did last week, only harder. This is merely crossing the line of the first clause of MOU.

The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve has been drawn down to 340 million barrels, with only approximately 190 million usable barrels remaining due to structural integrity requirements (a 20% minimum capacity). This depletion is attributed to the Ukraine war and the conflict with Iran.

The strategic petroleum reserve... has been drawn down steadily. They're now only 340 million barrels left... If you get below 20% of capacity, the very the structural integrity of those cases threatened... it's not 340 million barrels. It's roughly 190 million barrels... US strategic reserves have been emptied... because of the Ukraine war... and now thanks to Trump because of the war with Iran.

Despite claims, the Strait of Hormuz experiences limited ship traffic due to lingering mines and a lack of insurance for many vessels, severely impacting global oil flow and exacerbating the energy crisis. Iran has also dictated specific routes for ships.

The Strait of Hormuz was closed yesterday... the number of ships that were passing through were limited. Iranians have told the captains of the ships that they have to... use a particular route... The mines are still there. It's still many of the ships are not prepared to move. Insurance companies are not given most of these ships insurance yet.

Iran holds significant leverage in negotiations because the global energy crisis is worsening, and its ability to control or slow down traffic through the Strait of Hormuz directly impacts the global economy, especially the supply of heavy oil crucial for diesel.

Iran has more and more leverage... the amount of oil that leaves and energy and helium and LNG that leaves the Strait of Hormuz... is going to be less than the consumption. So, the crisis is going to get worse... Iran can... cause trouble. They can always tell the ships to slow down.

Israel's conditions for an MOU, including Hezbollah's withdrawal north of the Litani River, dismantling infrastructure south of it, and granting Israel full freedom of military action, are seen by Iran as an attempt to achieve battlefield objectives through negotiation and are explicitly rejected.

The withdrawal of all Hezbollah elements north of the Litani River, the complete dismantling of Hezbollah's infrastructure in the area south of the Litani River, granting Israel full freedom of movement and military actions... Basically, they want to achieve whatever they couldn't achieve on the battlefield... No, but you know, the Israelis if ultimately they're forced to leave... the Iranians are not going to accept any any of this. Nor is Hezbollah.

A new regional military alliance is forming, comprising Egypt, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and Pakistan, with reported backing from Russia and China. This alliance aims to coordinate regional developments and review the US-Iran agreement, signaling a shift away from US dominance.

Pakistan working well in tandem or sort of as the front guy for China is pushing this new... regional military alliance of Islamic and Arab countries. So, you wind up with Egypt, you wind up with Turkey, Saudis, Iran, Iran gets in there... to eliminate US hegemony from the region.

Iran has significantly rebuilt and enhanced its missile capabilities since the previous 12-day war, incorporating new technology to bypass air defenses and learning from past experiences, making it a more formidable military force.

Iran has far more missiles than it had before the war. And they're using new technology, better you know, for in order to pass through air defenses. They're they're developing their capabilities, and they're going reviewing their strikes and and and learning from their experience in the war.

Iran has clearly stated it will not negotiate on its nuclear program until the US fulfills its obligations under the initial MOU, specifically regarding the lifting of sanctions, unfreezing assets, and cessation of threats against Lebanon.

The Iranians have made that clear that until these issues are resolved, they're not going to start negotiating about the nuclear program... they're only going to negotiate over those issues that have already been agreed upon to see if the Americans are going to comply or not. If they don't comply, then they don't move on to the nuclear issue.