Patrick Henningsen: Iran Strikes US Bases in Jordan – Retaliation Begins & Talks DEAD
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Summary
Takeaways
- ❖Iran's direct military actions against US and Israeli targets have significantly altered the regional balance of power, putting the US and Israel on the defensive.
- ❖The US lacks a coherent strategy in the Middle East, relying on shifting narratives and economic profiteering, which undermines its credibility and effectiveness.
- ❖Iran's treatment of GCC countries as co-belligerents and its refusal to compartmentalize regional conflicts have neutralized US strategic advantages and exposed Israel's vulnerabilities.
- ❖The US military's ability to sustain a major offensive against Iran is limited to 'two weeks max,' with massive Iranian retaliation expected.
- ❖Iran has gained the upper hand geopolitically, militarily, and economically, forcing de-dollarization and accelerating China's Belt and Road initiative.
- ❖Israel's use of Ben Gurion Airport as a primary US military staging ground makes it a prime target, exacerbating the country's vulnerability during conflict.
- ❖Iran's consistent adherence to its principles and red lines is establishing it as a 'normative regional superpower,' gaining recognition from other global powers like China and Russia.
- ❖The US policy of protecting Israel's impunity is unsustainable and is actively contributing to the decline of the US as a global empire.
- ❖Turkey's rhetoric against Israel is largely performative, lacking material action, which has undermined its claim to leadership in the Islamic world.
Insights
1Iran's Strategic Shift and Regional Dominance
Iran has fundamentally altered its strategic posture, moving from a purely defensive stance to actively setting the pace of action and reaction in the Middle East. By treating GCC countries as co-belligerents and directly targeting US and Israeli assets, Iran has rendered the US geostrategic military footprint 'pretty much useless' and severely hampered US and Israeli options for striking Iran. This shift has given Iran the upper hand geopolitically, militarily, and economically.
Patrick Henningsen states, 'Iran is now leading the pace of action reaction. That's a big difference from where it was before. They achieve this by being patient during this lull in hostilities and then coming out with a very clear strategic doctrine and policy and drawing red lines and only and I will argue this Nema in international relations it's my belief through the literature and through my studies and through what many other great scholars have have intimated which is that in the international system. The system bends in favor of normative powers over time.' He also notes, 'Iran has the upper hand. There's there's no doubt about that. Geopolitically, militarily, and also economically.'
2US Strategy: Unpredictability, Propaganda, and Profiteering
The US approach in the Middle East is characterized by a lack of coherent strategy, driven by unpredictability, false assumptions, propaganda, and economic profiteering. Donald Trump's constantly shifting statements exemplify this lack of strategic foresight. The US also engages in 'information management' and 'outright lies' to justify its actions, such as potentially framing a helicopter crash as an Iranian attack to create a pretext for escalation. This approach is not a calculated strategy but rather a reflection of internal disarray.
Henningsen states, 'Donald Trump doesn't know what he's going to do next either. So that's that's the part that's not in Sunzu's art of war, which is uh you're if you don't know what you're doing, your enemy doesn't either. And that's the problem here. And this is there is no strategy from the US right now. They back themselves so deeply into these positions. A lot of them are based on false assumptions, premises, propaganda, and just outright lies.' He also suggests, 'if I believe that it crashed rather than was shot down, that means it's a false flag by definition. Because if it crashed and then they're using it to claim it was shot down and then using that as a pretext for escalation, that by definition is a false flag.'
3Israel's Vulnerability and Dependence on US Impunity
Israel's military capabilities are insufficient without direct US support, and its strategy relies heavily on the US maintaining a narrative of Israeli impunity. The use of Ben Gurion Airport, a civilian facility, as a primary US military staging ground underscores Israel's desperation and vulnerability. Iran's refusal to compartmentalize conflicts has exposed Israel's tactic of punishing Palestinians for Iranian actions, directly linking the conflicts and undermining Israel's claims of neutrality or self-defense.
Nema states, 'Israel has shown no capabilities with their offensive with their offensive attack on Iran. You know, the country doesn't have the capabilities when it comes to the offensive when it comes to their defensive air defense system.' Henningsen adds, 'The fact that they're using Bengurian airport a civilian airport as their main air staging ground in West Asia that is just a level of desperation that's hard to comprehend.' He further explains, 'Israel is using the people of Lebanon and the people of Gaza as leverage as leverage against Iran.'
4The US Policy of Protecting Israel's Impunity is Unsustainable
The core function of US political and military policy in the Middle East is to protect Israel's ability to act with impunity, disregarding international law and human rights conventions. This commitment, however, is proving unsustainable and is actively contributing to the decline of the US as a global empire. The immense financial, military, and diplomatic resources expended to maintain this 'false facade' are draining US power and alienating global allies.
Henningsen asserts, 'The entire US, everything politically, militarily, it's all designed to protect Israel's impunity to to allow Israel to act with impunity. That is really ultimately what the US function is politically, militarily, all the sanctions, all the labeling of terrorist groups here, there, and the other. It's all for one single reason, which is to defend and protect Israel's right to to act with total impunity and criminality against its its residents, its neighbors.' He concludes, 'That policy of the US is going to bring down the United States. It's bringing down the US as a as a global empire by def having to maintain that it's so unsustainable.'
Bottom Line
The US's financial control over Iraq, particularly its oil revenue and sovereign wealth fund being held in US banks, is a critical, often overlooked leverage point. If Iraq were to declare its airspace off-limits to US and Israeli forces, it could immediately end the current regional conflict.
This highlights a deep structural vulnerability for Iraq, preventing it from exercising true sovereignty despite political shifts. For the US, it's a powerful, non-military tool of control, but also a potential flashpoint if Iraq attempts to assert financial independence.
For regional powers seeking to reduce US influence, supporting Iraq in diversifying its financial infrastructure away from the US dollar and Western banks could be a strategic long-term play. This would directly challenge a key pillar of US regional control without direct military confrontation.
The US military's current activities in the Strait of Hormuz, such as firing at 'empty tankers' under the guise of sanctions enforcement, are described as 'outright piracy and international racketeering,' and an 'embarrassment' for the world's most powerful military.
This suggests a degradation of US military utility and a shift towards economically motivated, legally dubious actions rather than traditional strategic deterrence. It also indicates a potential lack of viable military targets or a reluctance to engage in direct, high-stakes confrontation.
This behavior could be leveraged by adversaries to further delegitimize US military presence and actions on the international stage, particularly among nations concerned with maritime law and economic sovereignty. It also creates opportunities for alternative shipping routes and trade agreements that bypass US-controlled choke points.
Iran's strategic patience and consistent enforcement of red lines have led to significant political friction and infighting between the US and Israel, who are supposed to be 'the best of allies.'
This demonstrates Iran's ability to achieve strategic objectives not just through direct military action but also by exploiting the internal political divisions and dependencies of its adversaries. It weakens the cohesion of the US-Israel alliance, making it less effective against a unified regional front.
For Iran and its allies, maintaining a steadfast and principled stance could continue to exacerbate these internal divisions, potentially leading to a further erosion of US support for Israel and a re-evaluation of their alliance structure by both parties.
Key Concepts
Normative Power
In international relations, a normative power is a state that acts according to a set of principles and values, drawing moral red lines and enforcing them. Over time, the international system tends to bend in favor of such powers, as other states find them more predictable and 'bankable' for investment and alliances. Iran is presented as increasingly acting as a normative power by consistently applying its strategic doctrine and enforcing its red lines, in contrast to the US and Israel, which are portrayed as acting outside international norms.
War of Attrition
A military strategy in which a belligerent attempts to win a war by wearing down the enemy to the point of collapse through continuous losses in personnel and material. Henningsen argues that the current conflict is, and will continue to be, a war of attrition, where Iran holds the advantage due to its missile and drone capabilities, control over strategic waterways, and the unsustainable nature of US and Israeli military and economic commitments in the region.
Lessons
- Analyze the long-term implications of US foreign policy decisions, particularly those driven by external lobbying, on the stability and economic viability of the US empire.
- Evaluate the potential for regional powers to assert greater autonomy by diversifying economic dependencies away from the US dollar and Western financial institutions.
- Recognize the strategic importance of 'normative power' in international relations, where consistent adherence to principles and enforcement of red lines can shift global dynamics over time.
- Consider how the 'compartmentalization' of conflicts by major powers can be a deliberate tactic to control narratives and maintain leverage, and how challenging this framing can alter outcomes.
- Assess the vulnerabilities of critical civilian infrastructure, like major airports, when they are repurposed for military staging in conflict zones.
Notable Moments
The host details a rapid escalation of attacks, starting with Iran's strike on Israel, Israel's 'insignificant' response, US attacks on Iranian islands, and Iran's subsequent targeting of US bases in Bahrain, Kuwait, and Jordan.
This sequence of events illustrates a clear cycle of escalation and direct retaliation, marking a significant departure from previous proxy conflicts and demonstrating Iran's willingness to engage directly with both Israel and the US.
Patrick Henningsen suggests that the reported Iranian downing of a US Apache helicopter might have been a 'false flag' operation, where a crash was misrepresented to create a pretext for US escalation.
This highlights the pervasive role of information warfare and propaganda in modern conflicts, where events can be manipulated to justify military actions and shape public opinion, raising questions about the veracity of official narratives.
Henningsen reveals that Israeli F-35s received air-to-air refueling support over Saudi Arabian airspace, making Saudi bases 'fair game' for Iranian retaliation.
This exposes the direct involvement of Saudi Arabia in supporting Israeli military operations against Iran, effectively drawing Saudi Arabia into the conflict and undermining its claims of neutrality or de-escalation efforts.
The discussion points out that Ben Gurion Airport, a civilian airport, is being used as the main US air staging ground in West Asia, leading to hundreds of flight cancellations.
This indicates a critical level of desperation and lack of alternative military infrastructure for the US and Israel, making a civilian hub a prime military target and severely impacting civilian life and escape routes during wartime.
Henningsen states that Iran has 'flipped the dynamic' and is now 'leading the pace of action reaction,' a significant shift from previous periods where the US set the terms of engagement.
This marks a historic turning point in regional power dynamics, demonstrating Iran's successful strategy in asserting its influence and challenging the long-standing military and political dominance of the US and Israel.
The Lebanese President, Joseph Aoun, initially criticized Iran and Hezbollah but 'flipped' his stance after Israeli attacks on Lebanese army commanders.
This illustrates the direct pressure and consequences faced by regional leaders caught between external powers and internal resistance movements, highlighting how military actions can swiftly alter political alignments and rhetoric.
Quotes
"Donald Trump doesn't know what he's going to do next either. So that's that's the part that's not in Sunzu's art of war, which is uh you're if you don't know what you're doing, your enemy doesn't either. And that's the problem here. And this is there is no strategy from the US right now."
"If I believe that it crashed rather than was shot down, that means it's a false flag by definition. Because if it crashed and then they're using it to claim it was shot down and then using that as a pretext for escalation, that by definition is a false flag."
"The US has no business and no right to be uh you know flying Blackhawk helicopters around uh enforcing a naval blockade there. And they're already using US aircraft uh to fire at empty tankers, ships they claim are sanctioned. Um this is just outright piracy and just kind of uh international racketeering."
"Iran has the upper hand. There's there's no doubt about that. Geopolitically, militarily, and also economically, there's very little the US can do in terms of sanctioning to hurt or or damage Iran that hasn't already been done already."
"Iran is now leading the pace of action reaction. That's a big difference from where it was before. They achieve this by uh being patient during this lull in hostilities and then coming out with a very clear strategic doctrine and policy and drawing red lines and only and I will argue this Nema in international relations it's my belief through the literature and through my studies and through what many other great scholars have have intimated which is that in the international system. The system bends in favor of normative powers over time."
"The entire US, everything politically, militarily, it's all designed to protect Israel's impunity to to allow Israel to act with impunity. That is really ultimately what the US function is politically, militarily, all the sanctions, all the labeling of terrorist groups here, there, and the other. It's all for one single reason, which is to defend and protect Israel's right to to act with total impunity and criminality against its its residents, its neighbors."
"Iran has stood toe-to-toe with them and not only they still standing but they've now flipped the dynamic the balance of power in their favor and the US is on its heels and that's extraordinary and really it started with defense of the Palestinians because that's the that's that's always what Israel's problem with Iran has been because they defend the Palestinians."
Q&A
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