Ray McGovern: Ukraine to Hit Russia from Latvia Territory – Israel Strikes Aid Flotilla Again
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Summary
Takeaways
- ❖Donald Trump is reportedly seeking a deal with Iran, while Benjamin Netanyahu advocates for continued strikes on Iranian infrastructure.
- ❖Russia and China have issued strong, coordinated warnings to the US and Israel against escalating conflict with Iran, indicating a unified stance.
- ❖European leaders, including Macron and Starmer, face low approval ratings, which Russia's Putin is leveraging by playing a 'long game' in Ukraine, anticipating new leadership.
- ❖Russia's SVR publicly warned that Ukraine is preparing strikes on Russia from Latvian territory, explicitly stating NATO membership will not protect Latvia from retribution.
- ❖A 'tectonic shift' in the Persian Gulf's balance of power occurred when Gulf monarchies realized US protection against Iran was 'worthless'.
- ❖Saudi Arabia and Qatar are exploring a new security architecture for the Middle East with Russia, China, and Iran, excluding the US.
- ❖The Israeli interception of the Gaza flotilla, including US citizens, highlights a perceived lack of US protection for its citizens and declining US public opinion on Israel.
- ❖The US has withdrawn tens of thousands of troops from Europe, a move with more than symbolic significance in the context of European security.
Insights
1Trump's Iran 'Off-Ramp' vs. Netanyahu's Escalation
Donald Trump appears to be seeking a diplomatic resolution with Iran, aiming for an 'off-ramp' from the ongoing conflict. This contrasts sharply with Benjamin Netanyahu's desire to continue striking Iranian infrastructure before any potential deal or withdrawal. The US Secretary of State previously admitted that US attacks on Iran were a preemptive response to Israeli plans, suggesting Israeli influence on US actions. Russia and China have explicitly warned the US and Israel against further escalation, indicating a unified opposition to renewed conflict.
Axios reported Trump's call with Netanyahu regarding a deal with Iran, and Netanyahu's refusal. The US Secretary of State's frank admission about Israeli influence on US attacks on Iran (). Russian and Chinese foreign ministers issuing 'thoroughly unacceptable' warnings against renewing the war ().
2Russia-China Alliance Challenges US Hegemony
The relationship between Russia and China has reached an 'unprecedentedly high' level, marked by a joint communique and 40 economic and other agreements signed in Beijing. This alliance is openly critical of US actions, accusing it of 'creating chaos in the world'. This strong collaboration provides a significant counterweight to US influence, particularly in encouraging resolutions in conflicts like Iran, where both nations have offered to mediate.
Putin's visit to China, joint communique, and 40 agreements signed (). Putin stating their relationship is 'unprecedentedly high' (). Direct criticism of US actions and 'creating chaos' ().
3Latvia's Risky Ukraine Strategy and Russian Retribution Warning
European nations, including Latvia, are considering escalating the conflict by allowing Ukraine to launch drone strikes on Russia from their territory, with Latvia reportedly asking the US to place nuclear weapons on its soil. Russia's Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) issued an 'unusual public announcement' directly warning that Ukraine is preparing such strikes from Latvia and that 'membership in NATO will not protect the accomplices of terrorists from retribution.' The SVR even named five specific airfields in Latvia as potential launch sites, indicating precise intelligence and a clear threat of retaliation.
Host mentioning Europeans looking for escalation, Latvia asking for nuclear weapons (). Ray McGovern calling the situation 'crazy' (). SVR public announcement about Ukraine preparing strikes from Latvia (). SVR stating NATO membership 'will not protect' Latvia from retribution ().
4Middle East Security Architecture Shifts Away from US
A 'tectonic shift' in the Persian Gulf's balance of power occurred when Gulf monarchies, including Saudi Arabia and Qatar, realized that US promises of protection against Iran were 'worthless' after Iranian actions demonstrated the vulnerability of US bases. This realization has prompted these monarchies to explore a new security architecture for the region, potentially involving Russia, China, and Iran, effectively sidelining the United States. Saudi Arabia has reportedly refused to allow US aircraft to overfly its territory for future attacks on Iran.
Tectonic shift in balance of power when Gulf monarchies found US protection 'worthless' (). Iranians 'obliterated' US bases (). Saudi Arabia making it clear they won't allow US overflights for attacks ().
5Israel's Flotilla Actions and Declining US Support
Israel's interception of the Gaza aid flotilla, detaining its members, demonstrates a 'haughtiness, hubris, and arrogance' in its actions. This incident, following historical precedents like the Mavi Marmara attack where an American citizen was killed with no US response, highlights the perceived lack of protection for US citizens by their own government when dealing with Israel. Public opinion in the United States is shifting dramatically, with Israel's approval rating dropping to 32% and disapproval at 65%, indicating a potential weakening of the Israeli lobby's influence on US policy.
Ben Gvir's video showing detained flotilla members (). Ray McGovern describing Israeli actions as 'haughtiness, hubris, a arrogance' (). Mention of an American citizen killed on the Mavi Marmara in 2010 with no US action (). Israel's approval rating in the US down to 32% ().
Bottom Line
The Russian SVR's public naming of specific Latvian airfields as potential drone launch sites, coupled with a direct warning that NATO membership offers no protection, represents an unprecedented level of specificity and direct threat from a major intelligence agency.
This move bypasses traditional diplomatic channels and signals Russia's readiness for direct, non-Article 5 retaliation against NATO members if their territory is used for attacks, potentially redefining the threshold of conflict and challenging NATO's collective defense doctrine.
This creates an opportunity for non-NATO countries or neutral parties to mediate de-escalation by facilitating a clear understanding of red lines and preventing miscalculation, or for NATO to internally reassess its members' 'proxy' actions and their implications for Article 5.
The realization by Gulf monarchies that US protection is 'worthless' against Iranian capabilities has led them to seek a new security architecture with Russia, China, and Iran.
This fundamentally alters the geopolitical alignment in the Middle East, potentially leading to a significant reduction or complete withdrawal of US military presence and influence, and the emergence of a new regional power bloc with different allegiances and security priorities.
Businesses and investors should anticipate a shift in regional trade, energy, and defense partnerships, with increased opportunities for Chinese and Russian companies, and a need for Western entities to adapt to a non-US-centric Middle East.
Lessons
- Monitor public opinion shifts in the US regarding international conflicts, as they can signal future policy changes and impact geopolitical stability.
- Analyze the implications of the strengthening Russia-China alliance on global supply chains, trade routes, and access to critical resources, especially for businesses operating internationally.
- Evaluate the risks and opportunities presented by the emerging security architecture in the Middle East, considering potential changes in regional alliances and the role of non-Western powers.
Notable Moments
Ray McGovern recounts his personal experience on the 'Audacity of Hope' flotilla to Gaza in 2011, which was prevented from sailing by Greek authorities under pressure from the Obama administration, illustrating the political interference in humanitarian efforts.
This personal anecdote provides a concrete example of how powerful nations can exert influence to suppress humanitarian aid and silence dissent, highlighting the challenges faced by activists and the complex political calculations behind such interventions.
McGovern shares the story of Rachel Corrie, an American volunteer killed by an Israeli bulldozer in 2003, emphasizing how her death was deliberately downplayed by the US and Western press.
This moment underscores the perceived impunity of certain actors in international conflicts and the ability of powerful states to control narratives, even concerning the deaths of their own citizens, revealing a deep-seated bias in media coverage and political response.
Quotes
"The Israelis told us they're going to attack Iran, and we thought probably they would they would retaliate against us retaliate against us, and so we want to do a preemptive thing and attack Iran also so that we wouldn't suffer so many casualties."
"Sam ne priyemlemo, okay? Sam Sam means thoroughly, completely. It doesn't mean like in particular. This is the whole nine yards. Thoroughly unacceptable."
"The country's membership in NATO will not protect the accomplices of terrorists from retribution."
"We need new patrons. We need new new ways to create some sense of solidarity and security. And it doesn't really matter about the US anymore because they've proved that they're not really good patrons."
"Citizen of Rome? Well, citizen of the United States doesn't mean a damn thing if the Israelis want to do whatever they want to do to you."
Q&A
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