Matthew Hoh: This One Move Against Iran Could Collapse Everything…

Matthew Hoh asserts that the ongoing war with Iran serves as the historical event that will mark the definitive end of the American century and the full emergence of a multipolar global order. He points to the significant decline in European cooperation with US military ventures, contrasting it with the 2003 Iraq invasion where allies like the UK, Spain, and Italy committed thousands of troops despite public unpopularity. Now, these same nations are hedging or actively refusing full support, demonstrating a fracture in the American alliance system.

Spain, Italy, and the UK, which provided substantial troops in 2003, are now showing reluctance, with Spain shutting out US airspace and Italy refusing plane landings. This 'difference in 20 years' indicates a transition from the 'American Imperial Order' to a 'multipolar world.'

Hoh argues that NATO's foundation is 'shaken' as European leaders, while some confront the new world order, others are 'scared to death' and cling to 20th-century models of military might. He states that NATO's purpose for many in power is to maintain the status quo and their relevance within an outdated framework, even as their armies are 'hollowed out' and de-industrialized. Donald Trump's threats to withdraw from NATO further underscore its internal divisions and perceived ineffectiveness.

The host states, 'What is the meaning of NATO anymore?' and Hoh agrees, noting European leaders' desire to 'maintain the 20th century' and their 'top tier vassals' status. Trump's description of NATO as a 'paper tiger' is cited as not far from the truth.

Hoh critiques Netanyahu's belief that 'cutting off the head of the snake' (Iran) would collapse regional resistance. He explains that while Iran's IRGC provides leadership and support, the Axis of Resistance is 'incredibly decentralized' and operates with strategic patience. Groups like Hezbollah waited for a 'total war' (Iran being attacked) to commit forces, aiming to hit an 'overextended and stretched out' US-Israel-Arab coalition. The Houthis' calculated entry into the conflict at the four-week mark further demonstrates this coordinated, multi-stage strategy.

Hoh states, 'Hisbala... were biting their time. They were being patient. They were adhering to the plan that they had.' He notes the Houthis' entry at the 'fourth week of the war' was 'more than likely... the plan.'

Hoh expresses grave concerns about the US military's readiness for modern warfare, specifically drone warfare. He warns that any ground invasion of Iranian territory, even small islands, would be a 'slaughter' due to the Iranians' preparedness and the US forces' exposure to drones, missiles, and artillery. He draws parallels to the Ukrainian experience at Krynky, where forces were massacred after establishing a beachhead without adequate support or evacuation capabilities.

Hoh states, 'I don't believe the United States Marine Corps and the United States Army is prepared for modern warfare... specifically by drone warfare.' He compares a potential US ground operation to the 'battle of Krynky' where 'Ukrainians just got slaughtered for two or three months.'

The war is projected to cause a global recession, possibly a depression, characterized by stagflation. This economic disruption, coupled with attacks on energy facilities, creates a dire situation. Gulf monarchs, traditionally reliant on US backing, now face mass economic contractions, fleeing investments, and the realization that American bases did not guarantee security but rather made them targets. They are forced to reconsider their alliances and explore alternatives like BRICS or deeper ties with Russia and China.

Hoh states, 'We are heading into a global recession, possibly a global depression.' He notes Gulf states are 'looking at mass contractions in their economy' and that American bases 'prove the opposite' of security.