Larry Johnson: BREAKING: The American ATTACK on Iran has BEGUN - Iran's Upscale Retaliation Coming
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Quick Read
Summary
Takeaways
- ❖US military strikes are targeting Iranian naval bases, petrochemical plants, and coastal areas, with hundreds of targets expected over hours.
- ❖Iran has responded by attacking Iraqi Kurdistan with drones and missiles and has reported intercepting US cruise missiles.
- ❖Larry Johnson suggests the US attacks are a pretext to walk away from nuclear peace talks, influenced by Zionist pressure.
- ❖Iran's air defense systems have shown improved capabilities, successfully intercepting cruise missiles and forcing an F-16 out of its airspace.
- ❖Reports from Israeli media indicate an Iranian anti-ship missile may have hit a US warship in the Sea of Oman.
- ❖The conflict is expected to escalate into a "sustained escalation," potentially leading to significant economic repercussions for the US.
- ❖Iran has announced the full closure of the Strait of Hormuz, threatening to target any vessel attempting passage.
- ❖Trump's stated intent to target bridges and power plants is seen as an effort to inflict pain on the civilian population without military relevance.
- ❖Hezbollah is viewed as a de facto government in Lebanon, capable of managing social services while fighting, countering Israeli attempts to create internal strife.
Insights
1US Attacks as Pretext to Derail Peace Talks
Larry Johnson asserts that the US attacks on Iran were orchestrated to provide a pretext for Donald Trump to withdraw from ongoing peace negotiations in Islamabad. He attributes this decision to a "full-court press" from Zionist factions, both Jewish and Christian, who opposed any agreement requiring US concessions.
I think all of that, this was all designed to stage to create a narrative so that Trump can now walk away from the peace talks... the Zionists... mounted a fullcourt press on Donald Trump and... he decided he's to blow it up.
2Iran's Upgraded Air Defense Capabilities
Iran has significantly improved its air defense systems, now capable of intercepting cruise missiles, a capability it lacked weeks prior. This upgrade, potentially with Russian or Chinese assistance, has allowed Iran to defend against incoming US strikes and even force an F-16 to retreat from its airspace.
We've now got confirmed interceptions of cruise missiles by Iran, something they were not doing uh 12 weeks ago... IRGC says that it detected an F16 breaching Iranian airspace launch and then launching surfacetoair missile at it. They tried to you know force it to retreat.
3Full Closure of the Strait of Hormuz
Iran's Ambia Central Command announced the complete closure of the Strait of Hormuz, declaring that all movements through the strait would be targeted. This strategic move significantly escalates the conflict and is expected to cause a dramatic spike in global oil prices.
Iran's Ambia Central Command announced the full closure of the Straight of Hormuz, allowing zero ships to pass from now on... Every single movement through this straight will be targeted.
4Economic Repercussions for the US
The escalating conflict is projected to trigger severe economic headwinds for the United States, including a dramatic fall in the stock market and a significant spike in oil prices. The host notes the NASDAQ fell almost 1,000 points on the day of the attacks.
the financial tsunami that's been approaching since the straight the closure of the straight of homos is finally going to start hitting... today's dramatic fall in the uh stock market... down almost a thousand points.
5US Underestimates Iran's Capabilities
Larry Johnson argues that the US grossly underestimates Iran's military capabilities, which extend beyond coastal defenses to inland and underwater systems. This misjudgment leads the US to believe it can "break Iran" or that Iran's military is "defeated," a belief Johnson considers a significant error.
the US grossly underestimates and misunderstands uh Iran's capabilities which extend not just they're not right there on the coast but extend inland and are underwater... They really think that this is going to break Iran.
Bottom Line
Iran's potential for territorial expansion in the region, specifically targeting fragile states like Kuwait and Bahrain, as a strategic response to prolonged conflict.
This suggests a radical shift in regional borders and power dynamics, moving beyond proxy conflicts to direct annexation, which would fundamentally redraw the Middle East map.
Geopolitical analysts and defense strategists should model scenarios where Iran's territorial claims are actualized, assessing the impact on global trade routes, energy security, and international alliances.
The US strategy of attacking civilian infrastructure like bridges and power plants in Iran is purely to inflict pain on the civilian population, lacking military relevance in the absence of an invading ground force.
This highlights a shift towards psychological warfare and collective punishment, potentially fueling greater civilian resistance and international condemnation, rather than achieving military objectives.
International human rights organizations and media outlets could investigate and document these attacks to expose potential war crimes and rally public opinion against such tactics.
Key Concepts
Agreement Incapable
Coined by Sergey Lavrov, this model describes a party (in this context, the United States under Trump) that repeatedly enters into and then unilaterally withdraws from agreements or negotiations, demonstrating an inability to uphold commitments or engage in good faith diplomacy. This behavior undermines trust and makes future diplomatic resolutions nearly impossible.
Lessons
- Monitor global oil prices and stock market indices closely for rapid fluctuations, as the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and escalating conflict are predicted to cause significant economic instability.
- Re-evaluate geopolitical risk assessments for investments and operations in the Middle East, particularly concerning maritime shipping and energy infrastructure, given the heightened military activity and Iran's enhanced defense capabilities.
- Analyze official statements from all involved parties with skepticism, as the podcast suggests a pattern of misinformation and strategic pretexts (e.g., US claims about Apache helicopter incident, Israeli disavowal of involvement).
Notable Moments
Host details initial US attacks on Iran, including strikes on naval bases, petrochemical plants, and the targeting of children near Minab, while Iran simultaneously attacks Iraqi Kurdistan.
Establishes the immediate, real-time context of the conflict and highlights the multi-front nature of the escalation.
Larry Johnson attributes Donald Trump's decision to attack Iran to a 'full-court press' from Zionist factions, both Jewish and Christian, who opposed peace negotiations.
Provides a specific, controversial explanation for the US's motivations, framing the conflict as driven by internal political and ideological pressures rather than direct Iranian provocation.
Reports from Israeli media (Yediot Aharonot) indicate an Iranian anti-ship missile hit a US warship in the Sea of Oman, though unconfirmed by US sources.
If confirmed, this would represent a significant direct military engagement and a major escalation, demonstrating Iran's capability to inflict damage on US naval assets.
Iran's Ambia Central Command announces the full closure of the Strait of Hormuz, threatening to target any ship attempting passage.
This is a critical strategic move with immediate and severe global economic implications, particularly for oil supply and maritime trade.
Quotes
"This is the end of the negotiations, end of the agreement... I think will now spark a sustained escalation."
"the US grossly underestimates and misunderstands uh Iran's capabilities which extend not just they're not right there on the coast but extend inland and are underwater."
"If the United States start attacking the oil the water supply in these cities we're going to see the same thing happening with the GCC countries maybe going to Israel."
"Iran's Ambia Central Command announced the full closure of the Straight of Hormuz, allowing zero ships to pass from now on with or without tolls. Every single movement through this straight will be targeted."
Q&A
Recent Questions
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