Pepe Escobar: 12 Ballistic Missiles Struck a US Major Airbase (Jordan)
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Quick Read
Summary
Takeaways
- ❖A brief period of diplomatic hope between the US and Iran, mediated by Pakistan, collapsed, leading to a 'full-time war stage two.'
- ❖Iran's President Pzashkin communicated new non-negotiable terms: end all wars against Iran first, then discuss the Strait of Hormuz, and only then the nuclear dossier, explicitly rejecting a new JCPOA.
- ❖Iran threatened to test a nuclear device on its soil as a deterrence measure if the US continued to impose red lines, a message conveyed to Marco Rubio via Pakistani Foreign Minister Dar.
- ❖The US returned to an aggressive stance, with Trump advocating 'total war' and discussing bombing Iranian infrastructure, allegedly based on a 'fabricated Apache story.'
- ❖Iran has expanded its attack spectrum, targeting US bases in Jordan, Kuwait, and Bahrain, indicating a unified 'axis of resistance' from the Bab al-Mandab to the Persian Gulf.
- ❖Iran is believed to possess 'escalation dominance,' with the capability to obliterate targets like Ben Gurion airport with hypersonic missiles, which they are 'saving for the right moment.'
- ❖The hosts suggest that the ultimate agenda of those manipulating Trump might be to crash the global economy through escalating interconnected wars in West Asia and Ukraine.
Insights
1Iran's New Diplomatic Red Lines and Nuclear Deterrence Threat
Iran, through Pakistani mediation, communicated strict new terms for de-escalation: first, end all wars against Iran and the 'axis of resistance'; second, discuss the Strait of Hormuz; and third, address the nuclear dossier, explicitly ruling out a new JCPOA. Critically, Iran threatened to test a nuclear device on its soil as a means of affirming deterrence if the US continued to impose unilateral red lines, a message that reportedly reached US officials like Marco Rubio.
President Pzashkin's phone call to Pakistani Prime Minister Shabbash Sharif outlining the new configuration of talks. Pakistani Foreign Minister Dar's subsequent meeting with Marco Rubio to convey this information.
2US Shift Back to Aggression and 'Fabricated Apache Story'
After a brief period where Trump's 'kinetic wararmonger rhetoric' paused following Iran's nuclear deterrence threat, the US quickly reverted to an aggressive stance. This shift was reportedly catalyzed by a 'fabricated Apache story' involving a helicopter crash attributed to a Shahid drone, which the hosts argue was an excuse to resume bombing campaigns against Iran.
The change in Trump's rhetoric around May 29th, followed by the 'Apache story' and renewed US bombing discussions, including targeting bridges and electrical installations.
3Iran's Expanded Target Spectrum and 'Escalation Dominance'
Iran has significantly expanded its military response capabilities and target spectrum, now including US major airbases in Jordan, Kuwait, and Bahrain, in addition to Israeli targets. The IRGC declared a 'continuum from the Bab al-Mandab to the Persian Gulf' as a single theater of war, indicating a unified 'axis of resistance' strategy. The hosts assert Iran has 'escalation dominance' and has not yet fully deployed its response capabilities, such as using hypersonic missiles to 'obliterate' Ben Gurion airport.
IRGC mentioned 12 ballistic missiles striking a major airbase in Jordan. Attacks on US bases in Kuwait and Bahrain, including the Fifth Fleet base. Discussion of Iran's ability to destroy Ben Gurion airport and Israel's main train station.
4Global Economic Crash as a Potential Agenda
The escalating interconnected wars in West Asia and Ukraine raise concerns that the ultimate agenda of those manipulating Trump might be to intentionally crash the global economy. Continued escalation is predicted to send oil and bond markets 'completely out of control,' leading to a global crash, potentially to restart the system on more favorable terms for certain actors.
Discussion at the St. Petersburg forum about the possibility of crashing the global economy. Analysis of the impact of continued escalation on oil and bond markets.
Bottom Line
The US administration, particularly Trump, is perceived as being manipulated by a small group of 'forever war' controllers whose potential agenda includes crashing the global economy to reset terms more favorably.
This suggests that current geopolitical escalations are not merely reactive but could be part of a deliberate, long-term strategy with profound global economic implications, challenging conventional interpretations of conflict drivers.
Analysts and investors should consider scenarios where economic instability is a desired outcome rather than an unfortunate side effect, prompting re-evaluation of risk models and strategic asset allocation in anticipation of systemic shocks.
Iran's 'escalation dominance' is rooted not just in military hardware (like hypersonic missiles) but also in superior intelligence, reportedly aided by Russia, which is deemed 'much more important than weapons.'
This highlights that success in modern geopolitical conflicts increasingly depends on intelligence superiority and strategic coordination, not just brute force. It implies that the US and Israel are at a disadvantage due to a lack of understanding of their adversaries' capabilities and strategies.
Organizations focused on geopolitical risk assessment should prioritize intelligence gathering and analysis capabilities, particularly regarding non-Western military doctrines and strategic partnerships, to better anticipate and mitigate regional conflicts.
Key Concepts
Escalation Ladder
The concept that conflicts progress through stages of increasing intensity, with each side responding to the other's actions, and the control over this progression (escalation dominance) being a critical strategic advantage.
Total War vs. Protracted War
A contrast between a strategy aiming for swift, decisive victory through overwhelming force (total war) and a prolonged conflict characterized by attrition and limited objectives (protracted war), with the US historically shifting away from the former.
Axis of Resistance
A geopolitical framework describing a unified front of regional actors (e.g., Iran, Hezbollah, Houthis) coordinating military and political actions against perceived adversaries, primarily the US and Israel, across a contiguous theater of war.
Lessons
- Monitor the rhetoric and actions of the US administration and Iran for signs of further escalation or de-escalation, paying close attention to the 'Apache story' and similar narratives as potential pretexts for military action.
- Analyze the implications of Iran's expanded 'axis of resistance' and its targeting of US bases in Jordan, Kuwait, and Bahrain, as this indicates a significant shift in the regional power balance and potential for wider conflict.
- Evaluate the risks of a global economic crash stemming from escalating conflicts in West Asia and Ukraine, particularly concerning oil and bond markets, and adjust investment strategies accordingly.
Notable Moments
Pepe Escobar's return to 'NATO' territory, contrasting with his previous locations in Shanghai and St. Petersburg, setting a tone of being 'back in hell' and ready to discuss intense geopolitical issues.
This personal anecdote immediately establishes the guest's perspective as someone deeply immersed in and critical of Western geopolitical structures, framing the subsequent discussion from a non-Western, critical viewpoint.
The hosts playing a clip of Keith Kellogg advocating for 'total war' against Iran, comparing it to World War I or II, and suggesting 'obliteration.'
This clip serves as a direct example of the 'wararmonger' mentality the hosts criticize, highlighting the extreme positions influencing US policy and setting up their argument about the dangers of such thinking.
The revelation that Iran's threat to test a nuclear device, conveyed via Pakistani mediators, temporarily caused Trump to halt his 'kinetic wararmonger rhetoric' and contemplate a deal.
This moment underscores the immediate impact of Iran's deterrence strategy and suggests that direct, high-stakes threats can alter US policy, even if temporarily, revealing a potential leverage point for Iran.
The discussion of the 'Apache story' as a fabricated excuse for renewed US aggression against Iran, contrasting it with the unresolved mystery of a 'two-tap tomahawk killing girls in Minab.'
This highlights the hosts' skepticism towards official US narratives regarding military incidents, suggesting a pattern of manufacturing pretexts for war and questioning the transparency and credibility of US military reporting.
Quotes
"Having a protracted war is not the American way of war. It's a war we've been conditioned to in the last few decades where we've done things in Afghanistan or Iraq. We ought to go back to the way we did it in like World War II or World War I and we just finished the job. Total war. Obliterate them and say if when you need to come to the table and you want to talk to us, you got our phone number and tell them we're done because right now we are playing their game, not our game. Let's play our game and force them to come to us."
"If the Americans keep going over the threshold and imposing their own red lines without discussing with us, after all, this is a mediation effort and it's theoretically a diplomatic conversation. We might entertain the notion of testing a nuclear device on Iranian soil as a means of affirming our deterrence."
"The escalation ladder itself is controlled by Iran, is not controlled by the Americans, and Iran has not even started to really escalate the responses."
"Wrong strategies and impulsive actions will reset the entire board for the worse, explode energy infrastructure and markets and create an endless quagmire that you will be stuck in for years and you'll see a different Iran."
"Russia provided a lot of first class intel to Iran. And this in many cases is much more important than uh weapons."
Q&A
Recent Questions
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