Seyed M. Marandi: New Hormuz mechanism - IAEA access put on hold
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Summary
Takeaways
- ❖Iran's $12 billion in frozen assets are being released, with the first installment managed by Qatar for agricultural purchases.
- ❖A major explosion in Qatar's gas fields is believed by Iranian sources to be an Israeli attack aimed at pressuring Qatar for its mediation efforts.
- ❖Iran entered negotiations primarily to end the conflict in Lebanon, but Israeli military actions are seen as deliberate attempts to sabotage the agreement.
- ❖The current Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) between Iran and the US is highly fragile and could collapse within weeks, risking a return to conflict and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
- ❖Professor Marandi asserts that any willingness by Donald Trump to pressure Benjamin Netanyahu stems solely from Iranian leverage and readiness to use it.
- ❖The balance of power in the region has reportedly shifted away from the United States towards the 'axis of resistance'.
- ❖Iran and Oman are developing a new mechanism for controlling the Strait of Hormuz, including fees and security protocols, prioritizing Oman due to its neutrality.
- ❖Iran has made progress in improving relations with Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE, evidenced by not targeting US assets in those countries during past conflicts.
- ❖Claims by US officials like J.D. Vance about new IAEA access to Iranian nuclear enrichment sites are dismissed as false; no substantive changes have occurred on that front.
- ❖Iran is actively diversifying its trade relations, strengthening ties with Pakistan, Oman, China, and Russia, partly in response to the US siege and sanctions.
- ❖Future negotiations on Iran's nuclear program and comprehensive sanctions removal are contingent on resolving current issues like frozen assets and the situation in Lebanon.
Bottom Line
Israel may escalate violence in Gaza and the West Bank to 'compensate' for perceived losses or concessions regarding Lebanon.
This suggests a potential for increased humanitarian crisis and instability in other Palestinian territories, driven by a compensatory strategy rather than direct military necessity.
International bodies and humanitarian organizations need to pre-position resources and diplomatic efforts to mitigate potential escalations in these areas, anticipating a reactive strategy from Israel.
The shift in regional power dynamics is compelling GCC countries (Saudi Arabia, Qatar, UAE) to improve relations with Iran, moving away from purely US-led policies.
This indicates a potential long-term realignment of alliances in the Persian Gulf, reducing US influence and fostering more localized security architectures, which could either stabilize or destabilize the region depending on the nature of these new relationships.
Businesses and governments should monitor these evolving regional alliances, as they could open new trade routes, investment opportunities, or necessitate adjustments to existing supply chains and security partnerships.
Lessons
- Monitor Israeli military actions in Lebanon closely, as they are a key indicator of the stability of the Iran-US agreement and potential for regional escalation.
- Assess the risk of Strait of Hormuz closure and its potential impact on global energy markets and supply chains, given Iran's stated willingness to use this leverage.
- Evaluate the implications of Iran's strengthening economic ties with non-Western partners (Pakistan, Oman, China, Russia) for regional trade, investment, and geopolitical influence.
Quotes
"People here believe it was the Israelis. And that they are putting pressure on Qatar because Qatar is improving its relationship with Iran and it's and that it's trying to play the role of a mediator."
"It is it is beginning in order to undermine the agreement. So the the reason the one of the reasons why Iran went to these negotiations was to bring an end to the genocide in Lebanon."
"I think that it's quite possible that this deal could collapse within days or weeks. No one should be have any confidence whatsoever that there will not be war again, and that the Strait of Hormuz will not be shut down again, and that the globe will not be moving towards a an economic depression."
"The only thing that makes Trump talk this way is Iranian pressure. If it wasn't for Iranian pressure, he would not be saying this. He he knows very well that the Iranians have leverage and they the Iranians are more than willing to use the leverage."
"The balance of power has tilted away from the United States towards the axis of resistance. That doesn't mean that the United States has collapsed and that the Israeli regime is falling apart. But there has been a shift in the balance of power."
"My fear is that the Israelis will increase the slaughter in Gaza to make to feel better about losing Lebanon and to carry out more crimes in the West Bank in order to compensate for the loss in Lebanon."
"This is the plan. This is the plan. The Israeli Netanyahu is is this is this is all planned. They are going to start killing Lebanese and to provoke a response which will come and then the whole thing will collapse."
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