Interviews 02
Interviews 02
May 25, 2026

Col. Jacques Baud: Trump’s Last Card Just SHATTERED Israel

YouTube · _KmFdY8_2D4

Quick Read

Colonel Jacques Baud asserts that Donald Trump's Middle East policies have trapped the US in a no-win situation, leading to Israel's global condemnation and regional weakening, while Europe's confrontational stance risks escalating the Ukraine conflict.
Trump's 'war' with Iran has yielded zero gains, antagonized allies, and led to Israel's global despise.
Israel's non-compliance with international law is the core problem, making it an 'illegitimate' state in Baud's view.
Ukraine is using drone attacks and airspace violations to provoke a wider European war with Russia.

Summary

Colonel Jacques Baud analyzes the complex geopolitical landscape, arguing that Donald Trump's Middle East strategy has backfired, leaving him between the desire for a 'win' and the economic realities of prolonged conflict. Baud contends that the US-initiated war has endangered international trade, isolated Israel, and led to its "destruction" in terms of international standing. He emphasizes that Israel's consistent disregard for international law is the root cause of regional instability, not a lack of recognition. Baud also shifts to the Ukraine conflict, suggesting that Ukraine is deliberately provoking European countries to draw them into a direct confrontation with Russia, while European leaders, despite lacking military capacity, appear to be preparing for an eventual war with Russia rather than seeking diplomatic solutions.
This analysis offers a critical, non-Western perspective on current geopolitical crises, highlighting how US foreign policy decisions, particularly in the Middle East, have inadvertently strengthened adversaries and weakened allies. It also sheds light on the dangerous escalation dynamics in Ukraine, suggesting that European leaders are pursuing a path of confrontation over diplomacy, with potentially severe global consequences. The discussion challenges mainstream narratives about the roles and responsibilities of key international actors.

Takeaways

  • Trump's Middle East policy has trapped him, forcing a choice between continued war and a 'bad' peace deal.
  • Iran seeks definitive guarantees from the US and Israel, recognizing Israel's historical non-compliance with agreements.
  • Israel's military actions in Lebanon are illegal and face fierce, well-motivated resistance from Hezbollah.
  • European countries, by providing weapons and airspace for Ukrainian attacks on Russia, are legally considered aggressors.
  • Ukraine's drone attacks on Russia lack operational value and are primarily provocations to draw Europe into a larger war.
  • European leaders are actively preparing for a confrontation with Russia by 2030, prioritizing escalation over negotiation.

Insights

1Trump's Middle East Dilemma and Israel's Isolation

Colonel Baud argues that Donald Trump's decision to initiate a 'war' with Iran has trapped him. He faces pressure from hardliners to continue the conflict while the market demands stability to prevent oil price hikes and global trade disruption. This situation has resulted in no gains for Trump, antagonized US allies in the Middle East, and led to Israel's 'destruction' in terms of international standing and global despise due to its 'unprovoked, unjustified attack against Iran' and alleged war crimes.

Trump 'has led Israel to destruction. He has led Israel to international and worldwide despise because this unprovoked, unjustified attack against Iran has added to all the war crimes that Israel has done so far.'

2Iran's Existential Fight and Demand for Guarantees

Iran views the conflict as an existential threat and will not settle for a temporary agreement. They require not just a signature but concrete guarantees and safeguards that the conflict will not resume, especially from Israel, which Baud claims has a history of not abiding by commitments since its inception.

Iran 'needs guarantees not simply a signature but also safeguards so that it doesn't restart. That means a commitment by Israel and that will be very hard to get because Israel has never abbidden by any commitment they made in the past.'

3Israel's Illegitimacy Due to Non-Compliance with International Law

Baud asserts that Israel's consistent refusal to adhere to international law, despite it being a condition for its UN membership in 1949, renders the country illegitimate. He highlights that Israel is the most condemned country by the UN, with over a hundred resolutions against its actions, and its behavior is compared to 'the worst of the dictatorship we had in the past in Europe.'

As long as Israel 'doesn't behave according to the international law I mean that makes this country illegitimate.' Israel's UN membership was conditional on respecting international law, which it has 'never complied with.'

4Hezbollah's Evolving Tactics and Israeli Challenges in Lebanon

Hezbollah is effectively leveraging modern, affordable drone technology with thermal cameras, a development seen in the Ukraine conflict, to target Israeli soldiers. Baud states that Israel is encountering the same fierce resistance in Lebanon as in 2006, but with updated means. He argues Israel has no legitimate motive to be in Lebanon, and Hezbollah fights on its own territory with strong determination, unlike Israeli soldiers who may not understand their purpose.

Hezbollah is 'profiting from' the development of drone technology, including 'thermal technology used to be extremely expensive... Today it's extremely affordable.' 'The presence of Israeli soldiers in Lebanon is illegal regardless of oh you consider the fa the case it's illegal period.'

5Israel's Lost Strategic Importance for the US

Post-Cold War, Israel lost its strategic value as a 'western stronghold' in a hostile Middle East. While the US still treats Israel as its main ally, Baud argues that other regional countries became more friendly to the West, making Israel no longer 'that necessary to the US.' The US, however, continues to use antagonism between Israel and its neighbors to 'divide and rule' the region, a strategy Baud believes is ineffective.

After the cold war... 'Israel has lost his its strategic situation.' 'Israel is no longer that necessary to to the US.'

6Ukraine's Provocation Strategy to Engage Europe in War

Ukrainian drone attacks, particularly those using the airspace of NATO countries like Estonia, Latvia, Poland, and Finland, are not for operational gain but are deliberate provocations. Baud believes Ukraine is attempting to 'drag the Europeans into a confrontation with Russia' by creating situations where Russia could retaliate against European soil, thereby triggering a larger war.

Ukrainian drone attacks 'amount to a provocation in order to have to to have kind of an escalation on the um uh not just in Ukraine but also probably an escalation that would drag other European countries into the into the conflict.'

7European Mindset: Preparing for War, Not Peace with Russia

Baud highlights a concerning mindset among European leaders, who he claims are actively preparing for a confrontation with Russia by 2030, seeing Ukraine's role as merely 'buying time.' Despite lacking the military means, European countries show a 'willingness to engage into the conflict' and have 'no more reason to fight the Russians' than to talk to them, yet they reject negotiations and prioritize escalation.

The Belgian chief of general staff 'said that there will be a confrontation with Russia in 2030 and in fact the role of the Ukrainians is only to buy time for the Europeans who prepare.' The EU foreign minister 'said that they had not prepared for any kind of negotiation because there is no point.'

Lessons

  • Challenge narratives that ignore the historical context of conflicts, especially regarding Israel-Palestine, to understand root causes.
  • Scrutinize the motivations behind military actions, particularly when they lack clear operational value, as they may be provocations.
  • Evaluate the long-term strategic implications of foreign policy decisions, rather than focusing on short-term 'wins' or ego-driven objectives.

Notable Moments

Discussion on Israel's UN membership conditionality.

This highlights a historical precedent and a specific legal obligation Israel undertook, which Baud argues it has consistently violated, forming a core part of his argument for its illegitimacy.

Comparison of Ukrainian and Israeli provocation strategies.

Baud draws a direct parallel between the two conflicts, suggesting a shared 'culture' of provoking larger powers to solve self-created problems, offering a unique analytical framework.

Quotes

"

"Trump would have been much better inspired not to start this war because now he has trapped himself into a situation where he lies sitting between two chairs."

Colonel Jacques Baud
"

"He has led Israel to destruction. He has led Israel to to international and worldwide despise because uh uh this attack, this unprovoked, unjustified attack against Iran has added to all the war crimes that Israel has done so far."

Colonel Jacques Baud
"

"As long as Israel doesn't behave according to the international law I mean that makes this country illegitimate."

Colonel Jacques Baud
"

"Germany, France, Poland, Lithuania, Latvia, Estonian and Finland may be considered as uh according to international law... as aggressor."

Colonel Jacques Baud
"

"My feeling my impression is that Ukrainians have understood this situation and they tried to drag the the Europeans into a confrontation with Russia."

Colonel Jacques Baud
"

"Zalinski and people around him come from the same have the same culture as those in in Israel. Netanyahu and they come from the same region. This the same culture. This is way to address problem. They provoke but then when they see that they are too weak to address the problem they created they try to expand the problem in order to involve others so that others can solve the problem for them."

Colonel Jacques Baud

Q&A

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