Strait of Hormuz Week 13 Update: Mines, Blockades, and "Dark" Ships

A floating object, strongly suspected to be an Iranian naval mine, was sighted in Omani territorial waters near the Strait of Hormuz. This is the first concrete evidence of mines in the water, posing a direct threat to commercial shipping and complicating navigation through the critical chokepoint.

The Oman Maritime Security Center issued a navigation warning after a suspected floating mine was sighted west of the inshore traffic zone. Video evidence shows a mine-like object with some growth, indicating it hasn't been in the water for an extended period.

US forces are actively enforcing a blockade against Iranian ports, disabling commercial vessels that fail to comply with warnings. This demonstrates a willingness to use destructive force, escalating the risks for any ship attempting to trade with Iran.

CENTCOM reported disabling the Gambia-flagged 'Leon Star' with a Hellfire missile after over 20 warnings. This marks the fifth commercial vessel disabled and 116 redirected, with US advisories explicitly warning of 'disabling or destructive fire' for non-compliance.

The reliability of Automatic Identification System (AIS) data in the region is severely compromised by widespread spoofing, where ships transmit false positions or appear in impossible locations. This creates significant challenges for accurate maritime intelligence and tracking.

Marine Traffic shows clusters of ships 'in the mountains of the UAE' due to spoofing. Fictitious vessels like 'IRGC Toll Collector' and 'Jersey Devil 404' are appearing on AIS, making it difficult to discern real vessel movements.

Iran is attempting to mitigate the US blockade by establishing its own shipping lanes within its territorial waters and facilitating ship-to-ship transfers of oil and cargo in the Gulf of Oman and Persian Gulf. These tactics aim to maintain its energy exports despite sanctions.

Iran has set up new lanes in its territorial waters and granted Iraq permission to use them. UANI has recorded 69 ship-to-ship transfers of Iranian crude and 5 of LPG, often occurring in known transfer spots like off Johor, Malaysia.

Disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz are causing global oil inventories to deplete at an alarming rate, leading to warnings from major economic bodies about impending energy crises, especially as summer demand approaches. This will disproportionately affect poorer nations.

The IEA, IMF, World Bank, and WTO warn that Hormuz disruptions are draining oil inventories at a record pace. Only 29 out of 109 deep-draft tankers have exited the Persian Gulf in over 100 days, creating a 'donut hole' in global oil supply.

The US administration is issuing Jones Act waivers that allow foreign-flagged vessels to operate on domestic routes, ostensibly to address shortages. However, these waivers are being applied broadly, even for non-critical cargo like asphalt, while US-flagged tankers are already at max capacity and US oil is simultaneously being exported.

A Chinese Cosco tanker delivered asphalt from Louisiana to Connecticut under a Jones Act waiver, despite the waiver's stated purpose for petroleum or fertilizer. The host argues these waivers benefit oil traders at the expense of US interests and shipbuilding.