Lt. Col. Anthony Aguilar: BREAKING: U.S. Launches Airstrikes Inside Iran – Escalation Underway
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Summary
Takeaways
- ❖US Central Command launched airstrikes against Iranian missile, drone, and radar facilities in response to an attack on a Singapore-flagged cargo ship in the Strait of Hormuz.
- ❖Lt. Col. Aguilar argues Iran's actions in the Strait of Hormuz are a direct response to US and Israeli violations of a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) concerning Lebanon's sovereignty.
- ❖The MOU's primary condition is an immediate halt to war on all fronts, including Lebanon, and respect for Lebanese territorial integrity, which Israel is actively violating.
- ❖The US recently approved a $1.5 trillion defense budget with an $89 billion reconciliation package specifically for restocking wartime supplies in the Central Command theater, signaling preparation for conflict.
- ❖Israel is accused of deliberately attempting to foment civil war in Lebanon by driving a wedge between Hezbollah and the Lebanese government, creating a pretext for deeper occupation.
- ❖A UN Commission report, corroborated by Aguilar, details deliberate Israeli targeting of Palestinian children in Gaza, including shooting teenage boys for 'target practice' and causing widespread amputations without anesthetic.
- ❖Lt. Col. Aguilar predicts an Iranian response to the US strikes, likely targeting US military positions in countries like Kuwait or Jordan, which supported the US operations.
Insights
1US-Iran MOU and Lebanon's Sovereignty
Lt. Col. Aguilar asserts that Iran has not violated the Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) but is enforcing its components. He claims the US and Israel ignore the MOU's first principle: an immediate and permanent halt to war on all fronts, including Lebanon, and respect for Lebanon's sovereignty. Israel's continued strikes and occupation in Southern Lebanon directly violate this foundational agreement, making other points, like safe passage in the Strait of Hormuz, non-enforceable from Iran's perspective.
Iran's stance that they will not proceed with negotiations if principle one (respect for Lebanon's sovereignty and cessation of strikes) is not met. The Singapore-flagged vessel traveled outside Iran's dictated channel in the Strait of Hormuz, which Aguilar frames as a response to US/Israeli violations of the MOU's core tenets related to Lebanon.
2US Rearmament Under Guise of Negotiation
Aguilar argues that the US is using negotiations as a 'peace dividend' to rearm and restock for future conflict. He points to the recent approval of a $1.5 trillion defense budget, with an $89 billion reconciliation package specifically for replenishing wartime stocks in the Central Command theater, as evidence of this strategy.
Approval of a $1.5 trillion defense budget and an $89 billion reconciliation package for 'replenishment specifically of wartime stocks in the Central Command theater.'
3Israel's Strategy to Foment Civil War in Lebanon
Israel, with US backing, is attempting to create a civil war in Lebanon by driving a wedge between Hezbollah and the Lebanese government. The goal is to weaken Hezbollah, the primary resistance to Israeli occupation, and create chaos that Israel can exploit for further territorial expansion, potentially occupying all land up to the Litani River.
An agreement between the Lebanese government and Israel (US-brokered) stating Israel has 'no territorial ambitions' but will remain in occupied territory until Hezbollah disarms. Lebanese protests against this agreement. Israeli media (Channel 13) reporting Israel's plan to divide Lebanon and plunge it into civil war to force a confrontation with Hezbollah.
4Deliberate Targeting of Children in Gaza
A UN Commission report, corroborated by Lt. Col. Aguilar's firsthand experience, details that Israeli troops deliberately shot at Palestinian children in Gaza. The report highlights severe injuries, amputations without anesthetic, and specific targeting of body parts, which Aguilar describes as 'target practice.'
UN Commission report stating 'Israeli troops deliberately shot at Palestinian children' and '21,000 Palestinian children died.' A doctor's account in the report: 'Israeli soldiers have been deliberately shooting teenage boys in a game of target practice.' Aguilar's personal validation of these claims from his time working at GHF distribution sites in Gaza, witnessing IDF open fire on starving people, including children.
Bottom Line
Iran's control over the Strait of Hormuz is considered its 'nuclear weapon,' implying its strategic importance for leverage and defense, rather than actual nuclear arms.
This reframes the Strait of Hormuz not just as a shipping lane but as a critical geopolitical asset for Iran, explaining why the US targets areas like Sirik and Qeshm Island, which are central to Iran's naval command and control of the Strait.
Understanding this perspective can inform analyses of future Iranian responses and US military strategies, predicting flashpoints and potential targets in the region.
The US is seen as consistently prioritizing Israeli interests over its own, leading to prolonged conflict and instability in the Middle East.
This suggests that US foreign policy in the region is not driven by national interests or peace, but by a commitment to Israeli expansionist goals, making genuine diplomatic solutions difficult.
Policymakers and analysts should consider the long-term costs and strategic implications of this perceived alignment, potentially advocating for a re-evaluation of US-Israel relations to achieve broader regional stability.
Lessons
- Monitor US defense budget allocations and military movements in the Central Command theater for signs of rearmament and preparation for kinetic conflict, particularly around the Strait of Hormuz.
- Analyze diplomatic statements and agreements concerning Lebanon and the Strait of Hormuz with a critical eye, looking for discrepancies between stated intentions and on-the-ground actions by the US and Israel.
- Support independent investigations and reporting on human rights violations in conflict zones, especially those involving civilian casualties and children, to counter official narratives and hold actors accountable.
Quotes
"The United States cannot be trusted. The United States brings no diplomatic credibility to the table and cannot be trusted."
"It's clear to me that the United States has once again used negotiation to simply protect themselves while they rearm for conflict."
"The only nation in the world that lies more flagrantly and blatantly than the United States is Israel. They're the world champions of just straight-up lying."
"Israel exists and operates like an infection. And infections strive in when there's chaos or when things are dirty or when things are irritated. And that's exactly what Israel is attempting to do."
"The IDF soldiers that I saw in the brigades deployed to Gaza all wore the patch on their left shoulder of the Israeli flag that was the geographical outline of the greater Israel, which is southern Lebanon, southern Syria from the Euphrates and south, Iraq from the Euphrates and south, to the Dead Sea, the Badia desert of Saudi Arabia, the the Sinai Peninsula."
"That report, it is absolutely true. It is absolutely true. As as bad and as dystopian and as vicious and disgusting as it sounds, it is absolutely true."
Q&A
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