Newsom's Biggest Asset Isn't His Record in Cali. It's His Mouth. (w/ Peter Hamby) | Focus Group

Californians generally love their state despite high costs, viewing it as a progressive leader. However, outside the state, especially in the Midwest, California is often seen as a 'cautionary tale' due to its expense, homelessness, and perceived 'socialist' policies. This dichotomy poses a significant challenge for Gavin Newsom's potential presidential run, as his record in California could be framed negatively by opponents.

Sarah Longwell highlights the dichotomy between Californians loving their state and others viewing it as a cautionary tale. Peter Hamby notes that 250,000 middle and low-income people leave the state annually, a fact Republicans use. Newsom's focus on innovation, climate, and civil rights is contrasted with the state's affordability crisis.

Despite California being a liberal state, Democratic voters in the gubernatorial primary are not necessarily seeking radical change. Javier Basera, a moderate with a 'charisma deficit,' leads because voters see him as a safe, experienced choice. Tom Steyer, a billionaire running as a leftist, appeals to some progressives who rationalize his wealth by believing he can't be bought and will use his money for 'good.' This suggests a pragmatic approach where electability and perceived effectiveness outweigh strict ideological purity.

Hamby describes Basera as 'carving out a pro business moderate stay the course lane' and winning across key subgroups. Focus group participants express a desire for 'change' but also a willingness to 'make the best of what you have' with Basera. Steyer's voters, despite disliking billionaires, are swayed by his progressive endorsements and the idea that his wealth makes him less corruptible.

The LA mayoral race exemplifies a new political paradigm where reality TV star Spencer Pratt, despite his unconventional background, is highly competitive. He leverages social media, creates viral content, and directly addresses local issues like homelessness and crime with emotional storytelling. This approach bypasses traditional media and highlights the failure of established Democratic candidates to connect with voters on salient, real-world concerns, demonstrating that attention-grabbing communication and a focus on core issues can outweigh traditional political experience.

Hamby details Pratt's use of social media (AI videos, TikTok, Snapchat) to go 'mega viral' and his focus on 'extremely visible squalor, homelessness, slow police response times.' He notes Pratt's ability to 'cause conflict and attention' and that he's 'outperforming Donald Trump already in the polls' in LA. Sarah Longwell compares this to Donald Trump's rise, emphasizing the demand for constant communication and 'light entertainment on top of politics.'