Pepe Escobar: Iran Declares NATO "Complicit" and Must Be "Held Accountable" For Consequences!
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Summary
Takeaways
- ❖Pakistani military intelligence, with Chinese assistance, provided Iran with advanced electronic warfare counter-intelligence, effectively halting Israeli assassination campaigns against Iranian leadership.
- ❖During US-Iran negotiations in Switzerland, Iran walked out three times due to US threats, with Pakistan and Qatar mediating and ultimately guaranteeing Iran's financial demands, weakening US leverage.
- ❖Saudi Arabia and Pakistan are upgrading their military pact to create a regional security umbrella for West Asia, with China's backing, signaling a major shift away from US-centric security.
- ❖An alleged Israeli plot to assassinate Pakistani Field General Asim Munir was uncovered and thwarted by Pakistani intelligence, leading to a direct threat from Pakistan to Israel.
- ❖US strategic oil reserves depletion and domestic political pressures are forcing the US to seek a temporary deal with Iran, but long-term intentions for conflict remain, according to Escobar.
- ❖The concept of 'indivisibility of security' is emerging in West Asia, led by Pakistan, mirroring a Russian proposal for Eurasia that was previously rejected by NATO.
Insights
1Pakistan-China Counter-Intel Halts Israeli Assassinations in Iran
Following the assassination of Ali Larijani, Pakistani military intelligence, with Chinese assistance, established a sophisticated electronic warfare counter-intelligence center. This technology and expertise were transferred to Iran, enabling them to counteract the 'kill chain' used by the US and Israel, leading to a complete cessation of assassinations against Iranian leadership.
Immediately after the assassination of Ali Larijani... Pakistani military intelligence got in touch with the IRGC... they said, 'Look, we can give you everything you need, and we even fly our best technicians to Tehran to show you how you can counteract all these... the whole kill chain... after the assassination of Larry Gerney... There were no more assassinations. Period.'
2Saudi and Qatari Guarantees Undermine US Leverage in Iran Negotiations
During high-stakes US-Iran negotiations in Switzerland, mediated by Pakistan and Qatar, Iran walked out three times in response to US threats. To salvage the talks, Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal personally pledged to Pakistan's General Munir that Saudi Arabia would guarantee Iran's $24 billion in funds if the US reneged. Qatar had already made similar assurances, effectively removing US financial leverage over Iran.
Prince Faisal... told Munir, 'Look, this thing cannot fail.'... 'Number one, we can guarantee the money. If Trump decides to walk out and not pay the $12 billion... We, Saudi Arabia, we guarantee that you, Iran, are going to get the money. And on top of that, Qatar... had already pledged to Iran, 'Look, don't worry. Your money is in our banks.'
3Emerging Pakistan-Saudi Security Umbrella Reshapes West Asian Geopolitics
A high-level Pakistani delegation, including Prime Minister Sharif and Field General Munir, is meeting with Saudi Crown Prince MBS to upgrade their military pact. This pact is envisioned as a Pakistani-guaranteed security umbrella for Saudi Arabia and potentially other GCC members (Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait), with China's blessing and Iran's agreement. This initiative aims to establish a regional security architecture independent of American influence.
Faisal said, 'Look, and to speed things up, you guys should come to Riyadh.'... They're going to meet to with MBS face to face. And what are they going to do? They're going to upgrade their military pact. Which will include... a Pakistani guaranteed security umbrella for Saudi Arabia that can be extended to other GCC members.
4Alleged Israeli Plot to Assassinate Pakistani General Thwarted
Pakistani military intelligence uncovered a credible plot, allegedly ordered by Netanyahu, to assassinate Field General Asim Munir or other members of the Pakistani delegation en route to the Switzerland negotiations. Pakistan relayed a stern message to Tel Aviv via mediators, warning of severe consequences if any harm came to their delegation, which seemingly deterred the plot.
Pakistani military intel had a very credible scenario that they uncovered... under orders of Netanyahu there would have been an attempt to assassinate Field General Asim Munir... they sent a message via the proverbial mediators... to Tel Aviv, 'If you touch our delegation going to Switzerland... we're going to wipe you off the map.' Guess what happened immediately afterwards? Nothing.
5US Strategic Oil Reserves Depletion Drives Trump's Desperation for Iran Deal
Donald Trump's perceived desperation for a deal or Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) with Iran is primarily driven by the rapid depletion of US strategic oil reserves. Intelligence suggests that by mid-August, these reserves would reach a critical low, causing oil prices and inflation to skyrocket, which would be disastrous for his political standing, especially before the midterms.
The desperation that he found himself in when he looked at the numbers in terms of the depletion of the strategic reserves of oil for of the United States... by mid-August this would be the absolute limit for the depletion of the strategic reserves and from one day to another the price of oil would skyrocket.
Bottom Line
The US 'pivot to China' is fundamentally undermined by its entanglement in West Asia and Ukraine, leading to strategic overextension and an inability to effectively confront China.
The US is strategically defeated in two theaters (Ukraine, Iran), limiting its capacity to project power or influence against China, despite rhetoric. This implies China faces less immediate military threat from the US.
China can continue its domestic modernization and tech race without significant external military pressure from the US, while simultaneously strengthening its geoeconomic influence through initiatives like the Belt and Road, leveraging US distraction and overextension.
Key Concepts
Indivisibility of Security
The principle that the security of one state is inextricably linked to the security of others, and no state should enhance its security at the expense of another. This concept, initially proposed by Russia for Eurasia, is now being implemented in West Asia through regional security architectures involving Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Iran, and China, aiming to create a collective security framework independent of Western powers.
Lessons
- Monitor the development of the Pakistan-Saudi military pact and its expansion to other GCC nations, as this signals a concrete shift in regional security away from Western influence.
- Observe how US domestic political pressures, particularly related to strategic oil reserves and elections, influence its foreign policy decisions in West Asia, as these constraints may dictate short-term diplomatic engagements.
- Analyze the long-term implications of Saudi and Qatari financial guarantees to Iran, which could establish a precedent for bypassing US sanctions and fostering independent regional financial mechanisms.
Notable Moments
Iran's delegation walking out of Switzerland negotiations three times due to Trump's public threats.
This demonstrated Iran's firm stance and unwillingness to be intimidated, forcing mediators (Pakistan, Qatar) to offer significant concessions (financial guarantees) to keep the talks alive, thereby weakening US diplomatic leverage.
The alleged Israeli plot to assassinate Pakistani Field General Asim Munir being uncovered and thwarted.
This event escalated the proxy conflict between Pakistan and Israel, revealing the high stakes involved in regional mediation efforts and Pakistan's willingness to issue direct, severe warnings to Israel.
Quotes
"If you touch our delegation going to Switzerland, and especially if you touch Field Marshal Asim Munir, we're going to wipe you off the map."
"Iran controls the Strait of Hormuz. Iran says, 'Today we're going to have five ships, tomorrow 10 10 ships, maybe 70 ships, and tomorrow maybe we're going to have one or two.' Depending on how you, United States, behave."
"The Zionists will never give up... There's only one way to stop them. We all know which way it is. And Iran also know knows uh which way it is. And there's no other way."
Q&A
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