‘TOTAL Betrayal!’ Can Republicans Survive Trump's War On Iran? + New Ayatollah 'Will Not Last'
Quick Read
Summary
Takeaways
- ❖The US-led military operation against Iran is viewed by some as highly successful, neutralizing key leadership and degrading missile capabilities within a week.
- ❖Critics argue the war lacks a clear endgame, public support, or congressional approval, leading to inevitable economic chaos and regional instability.
- ❖Iran's strategy involves targeting Gulf state economies, leading to an exodus of expats and threatening new business models reliant on tourism and stability.
- ❖The new Iranian Ayatollah, Moshaba Kamei, is a radical hardliner, making a quick surrender or deal highly unlikely.
- ❖The war is perceived by many as a 'total betrayal' of Donald Trump's 'America First' promise of 'no new wars' in the Middle East.
- ❖Polling and social media sentiment suggest significant public opposition to sending US ground troops to the Middle East.
- ❖The conflict is seen as shattering the post-WWII rules-based international order, with the US acting unilaterally and unpredictably.
- ❖The UK faces a dilemma regarding supporting US military actions, with former MP Rory Stewart arguing against granting US access to bases without consultation.
Insights
1Contrasting Views on Military Success and Political Fallout
Will Chamberlain asserts the US-led military operation against Iran is 'one of the most successful military operations' seen from the United States, citing the elimination of 50 top Iranian leaders and significant reductions in missile and drone strikes within a week. He dismisses concerns about oil price spikes as momentary. In stark contrast, Piers Morgan and other guests frame it as a 'presidency defining mess' for Trump, with severe economic consequences and a 'total betrayal' of his political base.
Will Chamberlain: 'I think this is one of the most successful military operations that we've seen from the United States.' () Piers Morgan: 'This looks to be brewing up to be not just a hell of a mess, but potentially a presidency defining mess for Donald Trump.' ()
2Iran's Tactical Response and Gulf State Vulnerability
Iran's strategy is to create economic pain and fear in Gulf States by attacking oil facilities and intimidating tourists and expats. This aims to pressure Gulf rulers to intervene with the US to end the war, as their new business models (tourism, entertainment) are being destroyed. Christianne Amanpour notes that Gulf states, despite disliking Iran, did not want this war and are now reconsidering hosting US bases due to perceived lack of protection.
Piers Morgan: 'The strategy of the Iranians to go after the Gulf States but to do it in a way which is really intimidating tourists... could completely change the dynamic of those countries.' () Christianne Amanpour: 'Iran's... aim is to create enough pain there for them to weigh in with Trump and to try to stop it.' ()
3Lack of Public Support and 'America First' Betrayal
Multiple guests argue there is no significant public or congressional support for the war in the US. Caroline Sunshine and Owen Shroyer emphasize that the war contradicts Trump's 'no new wars' campaign promise, alienating his 'America First' base. Social media trends like '#sendbaron' indicate a strong public aversion to deploying ground troops.
Christianne Amanpour: 'No support for it in the United States in terms of polls, 60% plus against it. No case made to the public, no approval from Congress.' () Caroline Sunshine: 'This is a total betrayal of Trump's base. This is exactly against everything he ran on.' () 'The number one trending hashtag on social media the last 9 days has been #sendaron.' ()
4New Hardline Ayatollah and Unlikely Surrender
The new Ayatollah, Moshaba Kamei, replacing his assassinated father, is described as a radical hardliner with close ties to the IRGC. He is driven by vengeance due to significant family losses. This makes any notion of a quick surrender or a diplomatic deal 'for the birds,' indicating a prolonged and entrenched conflict.
Piers Morgan: 'This son of the Ayatollah... is somebody who's coming in who's reputed to be at least if not more hardline than his father, but also he's just lost his father, his mother, his wife, and several children.' () Christianne Amanpour: 'The person who's now become the so-called supreme leader is more of the same and this is a hardline religious... deeply rooted multiple layers of administrative... regime that ain't going to cry.' ()
5Erosion of International Law and Alliances
Rory Stewart argues that Trump's intervention has 'shattered the order that America built after the war,' referring to the rules-based international system. He criticizes the US for acting unilaterally without consulting traditional allies, putting countries like the UK in an untenable position regarding military base usage.
Rory Stewart: 'Trump's intervention in Iran is the beginning of a completely new world. It's been going on for 18 months... this has shattered the order that America built after the war.' () 'We cannot be in a position where the United States does not consult with us, doesn't talk to us, has no interest in our views, and then just announces it's going to drag us into the war by using our bases.' ()
Bottom Line
Gulf states are actively reconsidering the presence of US military bases on their territory.
This could lead to a significant realignment of military power and alliances in the Middle East, potentially weakening US influence and creating new security vacuums or partnerships.
For other global powers, this presents an opportunity to forge new security agreements or diplomatic ties with Gulf nations seeking alternative protection or greater autonomy.
The war is inadvertently empowering the IRGC within Iran, solidifying its control over the country.
Instead of weakening the regime or fostering internal rebellion, the external threat is consolidating power in the hands of hardliners, making regime change less likely and potentially leading to a more entrenched, aggressive Iranian state.
Any future strategy would need to account for this strengthened IRGC, potentially requiring more nuanced approaches that avoid inadvertently bolstering the regime.
The 'America First' base's strong opposition to the Iran war creates a significant political vulnerability for the Republican party.
This internal division could lead to decreased voter turnout, primary challenges, or a shift in political allegiances, impacting both midterm elections and the 2028 presidential race, particularly if the war prolongs or escalates.
Political strategists for opposing parties could capitalize on this disillusionment by offering clear anti-interventionist platforms that resonate with disaffected 'America First' voters.
Key Concepts
Short-term Pain for Long-term Gain
This model is repeatedly invoked by proponents of the military action, suggesting that current economic disruptions and instability are necessary, temporary costs for achieving a more stable and profitable Middle East in the future, particularly through regime change in Iran.
America First vs. Interventionism
The core conflict within the Republican base, where Trump's campaign promise of avoiding foreign entanglements (America First) directly clashes with the current military intervention in Iran, which is seen as a return to traditional neoconservative interventionist policies.
Shattered International Order
Rory Stewart describes a world where the post-WWII rules-based order, characterized by US predictability and consultation with allies, has been fundamentally broken by unilateral US actions, leading to a more dangerous and unreliable global environment.
Lessons
- Monitor global oil and gas prices closely, as the conflict in the Strait of Hormuz and attacks on refineries are causing significant and potentially sustained spikes.
- Assess the political climate in the US for signs of shifting public sentiment regarding foreign military interventions, especially within the Republican base, as this could influence future policy decisions.
- Evaluate the stability and security of business operations and investments in Gulf States, considering the increased risk of Iranian retaliation and potential exodus of expatriates.
- Observe the evolving relationships between Gulf nations and the US, as discussions about the future of American military bases could signal significant geopolitical realignments.
Notable Moments
Discussion of the new Ayatollah, Moshaba Kamei, as a hardliner seeking vengeance.
This highlights the unlikelihood of a quick resolution or surrender from Iran, suggesting a prolonged and potentially escalating conflict driven by personal and ideological factors.
The debate on whether the US military operation is a 'war' and the implications of not formally declaring it.
This touches on constitutional powers, congressional oversight, and the element of surprise in modern warfare, revealing a recurring tension in US foreign policy regarding military engagements.
Rory Stewart's assertion that Trump's actions have 'shattered the order that America built after the war'.
This signifies a fundamental shift in global geopolitics, where traditional alliances and international norms are being undermined, leading to increased unpredictability and potential instability worldwide.
Quotes
"I think this is one of the most successful military operations that we've seen from the United States."
"If you want to say 90% MAGA supports this, then you have to account for at least 40% of the people that were once MAGA are not MAGA anymore. Otherwise, it makes no sense."
"The number one trending hashtag on social media the last 9 days has been #sendaron. So, if that tells you anything about where the American public is at, they don't have an appetite for sending ground troops to the Middle East."
"This is an illegal, immoral, reckless war that is going to make the world a much more dangerous place."
"The only thing that Donald Trump would think about if he was asked to do something is whether it would help Donald Trump."
Q&A
Recent Questions
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