Laith Marouf: Developing: Israel Signals Partial Withdrawal From Lebanon Border
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Quick Read
Summary
Takeaways
- ❖Iran's government uses negotiations with the US to expose the untrustworthiness of Zionists and Americans, anticipating their violation of any agreement.
- ❖The battle for Ali Taher hill in southern Lebanon is strategically crucial; Hezbollah's defense prevents Israel from controlling Nabatieh city and has resulted in Israeli casualties and unretrieved bodies.
- ❖The Lebanese President's demand for a total Israeli withdrawal, rather than partial, indicates a shift in US policy, pressured by Hezbollah's military victories.
- ❖The 'imperialist order' is breaking, as the cost of maintaining the 'Jewish colony' (Israel) is now affecting the economic stability of the US and Europe.
- ❖A new US-backed alliance of Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Pakistan is emerging to balance the 'axis of resistance' in a post-Israel scenario, but its internal cohesion is doubted.
- ❖The guest asserts that the liberation of Palestine is the ultimate goal of the 'axis of resistance' and that any ceasefire in other fronts will refocus global attention on Palestine, accelerating Israel's collapse.
Insights
1Iran's Strategic Approach to Negotiations
The Iranian government engages in negotiations with the United States not out of trust, but as a strategic maneuver to expose the inherent untrustworthiness of both the Zionists and Americans. The expectation is that any agreement will be violated, allowing Iran to appear rational and justified in any future retaliation, garnering international support.
The Iranian government is constantly trying to show the world that both the Zionists and the Americans are not trusted... because in the end, the Zionists and the Americans are going to out themselves, and they're going to violate this agreement.
2Ali Taher Hill: A Critical Battlefield in Southern Lebanon
Ali Taher hill is a highly strategic location in southern Lebanon, overlooking Nabatieh city, a key commercial hub. Hezbollah has fortified this former Israeli occupation point and successfully repelled multiple Israeli attempts to capture it, inflicting significant casualties, including a commanding officer, whose bodies remain unretrieved, potentially held for prisoner exchange.
Ali Taher was an occupied point during the Israeli occupation of Lebanon... it's very important hill that overlooks Nabatieh city... Hezbollah over the last 3 months played this game of dragging or enticing the Israelis to advance so they can fall into ambushes and traps... they lost one of the commanding officers of their armored divisions in this attack on Ali Taher Hill.
3Shifting US Stance on Israeli Withdrawal from Lebanon
The Lebanese President's public demand for a total Israeli withdrawal from Lebanon, rather than a partial one, is interpreted as a signal of shifting US policy. This change is attributed to the increasing military pressure exerted by Hezbollah and the 'axis of resistance', making the 'Jewish colony' too costly for imperial powers to maintain.
There is clearly a break within the imperialist order... the price of maintaining this Jewish colony is affecting the livelihood of citizens in the empire and the flow of goods and economic stability of the empire... It's most probably the president of the United States and his circles are the ones that allowed President Joseph Aoun of Lebanon to say such things.
4Emergence of a New US-Backed Regional Alliance
In anticipation of Israel's eventual collapse or reduced US sponsorship, the United States is reportedly fostering a new regional alliance comprising Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Pakistan. This alliance is intended to create a new balance against the 'axis of resistance', with Saudi Arabia providing finance, Pakistan nuclear capabilities, Egypt manpower, and Turkey modern military technology.
What do you do if Israel doesn't exist and you as the United States want to still have say in Western Asia? Then you have to find another balance to the axis of resistance. And that, unfortunately, it seems like to be Egypt, Saudi, Turkey, and Pakistan.
5Palestine as the Central Unifying Cause
The guest asserts that all conflicts and sacrifices made by the 'axis of resistance' are ultimately for the liberation of Palestine. Any ceasefire in other regional fronts will inevitably refocus global attention on Palestine, intensifying pressure on Israel and accelerating its collapse, as the 'Zionist colony' cannot exist without continuous conflict in the broader region.
It is illogical to think that Iran and Hezbollah will abandon Palestine after giving all these sacrifices... The whole world's attention is going to be focused again on Gaza and on the West Bank and on Jerusalem... This is partially why the Israelis don't want to stop the wars in Lebanon and in Iran and in Yemen. And this is why the axis of resistance wants to end those wars right now in order to refocus all of humanity onto Palestine.
Bottom Line
The psychological impact of Ashura commemorations in southern Lebanon, combined with Israeli bombings, doubles the historical and emotional significance for the Shia community, reinforcing their resolve against oppression.
This deep historical and religious connection fuels the 'axis of resistance' and makes their commitment to confrontation resilient against external pressures or perceived setbacks in negotiations.
Understanding this profound cultural and religious motivation is key for any actor attempting to analyze or influence the region's dynamics, as it highlights a non-negotiable core of resistance.
The shift in power dynamics is forcing former adversaries, like Al-Julani (backed by Israel/Turkey) and the Lebanese government, to align their rhetoric more favorably towards Hezbollah and the 'axis of resistance' for their own survival.
This indicates a significant, tangible change in regional influence, where even US-backed entities are publicly acknowledging and adapting to the rising power of the 'axis of resistance'.
This suggests potential for further realignment of regional actors, as those who previously opposed the 'axis of resistance' may seek accommodation or even cooperation to secure their future in a changing geopolitical landscape.
Despite US efforts to create a new Sunni-led alliance (Egypt, Saudi, Turkey, Pakistan) to counter Iran, internal societal and historical factors within these countries (e.g., Egyptian love for the Prophet's family, Pakistani Shia population, Turkish Alevi population) will limit their willingness to confront the 'axis of resistance'.
The US strategy to replace Israel with a new regional 'balance' may be fundamentally flawed due to deeply ingrained cultural and religious sentiments that transcend political allegiances, making such an alliance less effective than intended.
This implies that the 'axis of resistance' may face less unified opposition than anticipated from this new alliance, potentially allowing them to consolidate power and influence more effectively in the long term.
Lessons
- Recognize that geopolitical negotiations in the Middle East, particularly involving Iran, may be strategic ploys to expose adversaries rather than genuine attempts at compromise, influencing how agreements are perceived and acted upon.
- Consider the profound historical and religious motivations (e.g., Ashura) that underpin the 'axis of resistance' movements, as these factors often override purely political or economic considerations in their long-term resolve.
- Analyze shifts in rhetoric from traditionally pro-Western or adversary governments (e.g., Lebanese President, Al-Julani) as indicators of changing power balances on the ground, rather than just diplomatic posturing.
- Evaluate the potential limitations of new regional alliances, even if backed by major powers, by considering internal societal and religious dynamics that may prevent full alignment against a perceived common enemy.
Quotes
"The Iranian government is constantly trying to show the world that both the Zionists and the Americans are not trusted. And that is why the Iranian government always takes the high horse and stands more reasonable in its positions."
"The Zionist colony cannot exist with for one day without the non-stop continued military, economic, and political cover that the West gives to it."
"If Israel is weakened to a point where Egypt is not scared of it, or the backing of the United States gets withdrawn from Israel, of course, there is a threat that Egypt can awaken and do something."
"The whole world will be back to concentrating on the liberation of Palestine and saving the people of Palestine, the Palestinians, and this will accelerate the collapse of the Israeli colony."
Q&A
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