Scott Ritter: Iran Didn’t Break. It Adapted, Now Stronger Than Ever
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Summary
Takeaways
- ❖Benjamin Netanyahu is 'irrelevant' in current Middle East geopolitics, and his predictions about Iran's nuclear program have been consistently false.
- ❖The United States has lost the capacity to wage meaningful conventional armed conflict against Iran due to depleted long-range weapon arsenals.
- ❖Iran's ballistic missile force has reconstituted to 120% of its pre-conflict strength, making it stronger than ever.
- ❖Israel's military has severe limitations, with its air power trumped by Iran's ballistic missiles and Hezbollah's FPV drones.
- ❖Hezbollah's FPV drone operations are highly mature and effective, flying 'under the radar' and extending the battlefield up to 20km deep into Israeli territory.
- ❖Donald Trump's global domination strategy, aimed at controlling energy flow to China, has failed, forcing him to seek help from China.
- ❖The US is 'agreement incapable,' meaning it cannot be trusted to uphold international agreements, making only 'deals of desperation' possible.
- ❖The GCC countries are fractured and must adapt to Iran's dominance, potentially by diminishing or eliminating the US military presence in the region.
- ❖BRICS nations are gaining collective relevance, with Iran's survival being key, though replacing the dollar as the global reserve currency remains a complex challenge.
Insights
1US Military Incapacity Against Iran
The United States no longer possesses the capacity to wage meaningful armed conflict against Iran in a conventional manner. Its arsenal of long-range standoff weapons has been depleted, making it unable to sustain a campaign for more than a week, let alone against larger powers like China or Russia. This contrasts sharply with Iran's strengthened ballistic missile program.
Senator Mark Kelly's classified briefing revealed the US has 'nothing left' in terms of long-range standoff weapons. Ritter states, 'We'll run out of ammunition in less than a week.' Iran's ballistic missile force is 120% reconstituted and stronger. (, , )
2Hezbollah's Advanced Drone Warfare Nullifies Israeli Defenses
Hezbollah has developed highly sophisticated FPV (First-Person View) drone operations, capable of flying low to the ground and 'under the radar' of systems like Iron Dome. These drones are used with patience and maturity to target Israeli military assets, creating 'no safe zones' and making traditional infantry and armor assaults costly for Israel.
Videos show FPV drones hitting Iron Dome batteries. Iron Dome was designed for low-cost rockets, not advanced FPV drones that come in 'very low to the ground' and 'under the radar.' Hezbollah drones operate up to 20 kilometers deep. (, , )
3Trump's Global Domination Strategy Failed, Forcing Diplomacy
Donald Trump's initial strategy of global domination, which included decapitating leaders in Venezuela and Iran to control energy flow to China, has failed. This failure has created significant economic costs for the American people and forced Trump to shift from dictating terms to 'pleading for help' from China to find a way out of the current geopolitical mess.
Trump's intent was to 'decapitate Maduro in Venezuela' and 'Kame in Iran' to control energy flow to China. He is now 'going to China basically to plead for help' instead of dictating terms of surrender. (, )
4The US is 'Agreement Incapable'
The United States, due to its institutional structure and the 'deep state's' belief in American hegemony, is fundamentally incapable of upholding long-term international agreements. This makes it an unreliable partner, forcing other nations to treat it like 'the weather' – unpredictable and to be dealt with, but not trusted for agreements.
Quoting Sergey Lavrov, Ritter states, 'The United States is agreement incapable.' He elaborates that the US has 'violated everything' and 'committed perjury,' making its word untrustworthy. (, )
Bottom Line
Iran has put Gulf Arab states on notice that their major energy infrastructure will be 'eradicated on day one' if the US strikes Iranian energy targets, and Iran can also cut internet cables and desalinization plants.
This threat fundamentally alters the risk calculus for any US-led military action against Iran, as it guarantees massive economic disruption beyond Iran's borders, impacting global energy markets and the stability of US allies.
For China and Russia, this situation creates leverage to broker a peace deal, as they can present themselves as the only parties capable of de-escalating a conflict that would severely harm the global economy, including their own.
The GCC (Gulf Cooperation Council) as an institution is 'finished' due to internal animosities and its foundational premise of opposing Iran, which is no longer viable given Iran's regional dominance.
The collapse of the GCC implies a restructuring of regional alliances and security architectures in the Persian Gulf, forcing individual states to forge new relationships, potentially with Iran, and reduce reliance on a declining US security umbrella.
This presents an opportunity for Iran, China, and Russia to establish a new, multipolar security framework in the Persian Gulf, replacing the US-centric model and solidifying Iran's influence.
Lessons
- Re-evaluate geopolitical strategies: Recognize the shift from a unipolar to a multipolar world, where US military and economic dominance is significantly diminished.
- Understand the new Middle East power dynamics: Acknowledge Iran's ascendant role and the declining influence of Israel and the US in the region.
- Assess the impact of advanced drone warfare: Consider how FPV drones and ballistic missiles are fundamentally changing battlefield dynamics and rendering traditional air defenses less effective.
Quotes
"I don't really give a damn what Benjamin Netanyahu says because he's irrelevant nowadays."
"The United States no longer possesses the capacity to wage meaningful armed conflict against Iran in a conventional manner."
"There is no Iranian nuclear bomb, but there is a huge economic cost to the American people, which will manifest itself politically to the detriment of the president."
"The trump card in this conflict has been Iran's ballistic missile program, which apparently neither Israel nor the United States effectively [could counter]."
"America is the weather. Unpredictable, ever changing, sometimes stormy, sometimes not. But you can't have an agreement with the weather."
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