Chas Freeman: Israel’s Agenda Is Collapsing Faster Than Anyone Expected
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Summary
Takeaways
- ❖The US-Iran conflict is a 'war of attrition' in a diplomatic lull, with a resumption of kinetic fighting highly probable.
- ❖The US Navy's three aircraft carriers in the region are in 'sad condition' with low morale, failing equipment, and logistical issues, questioning the blockade's sustainability.
- ❖The US and Israeli arsenals are seriously depleted, a strategic objective of Iran.
- ❖NATO is 'falling apart' due to US pressure on allies like Spain to conform to its West Asia policies.
- ❖The defeat of Victor Orban in Hungary removes Israel's veto power within the European Union, making it harder for Israel to influence EU policy.
- ❖Donald Trump's alleged deal with Armenia to use airfields against Iran is a 'bribe' that would make Armenia a target for Iranian retaliation.
- ❖The US war against Iran is primarily driven by Israeli interests, financed by pro-Israel donors, and potentially influenced by compromising information (Epstein files) on Trump.
- ❖There is 'no American interest whatsoever' being served by the war with Iran; it has only strengthened Iran's hardline, nationalistic stance.
- ❖Israel's objective to destroy Iran is reciprocated, and if Israel is destroyed, it will be 'the result of Israeli decisions'.
- ❖Israel is 'terrorizing its neighbors' and using force against civilians for political intimidation, making it the 'greatest perpetrator of terrorism'.
- ❖Israel's behavior has 'globalized anti-Semitism' by conflating criticism of Israel with anti-Jewish sentiment.
- ❖The US's unconditional backing of Israel, including political protection and military qualitative edge, is 'gone now'.
- ❖The war has 'almost certainly created a consensus in Tehran that Iran must build a nuclear weapon'.
- ❖Iran has 'the cards' in negotiations due to its control over the Strait of Hormuz, a vital global economic choke point.
- ❖China has emerged as a major beneficiary of the conflict, enhancing its reputation as a peacemaker and gaining influence in the Gulf region.
- ❖Gulf Arab countries are likely to turn to diplomacy with Iran and may reconsider the presence of American bases on their territory.
- ❖The fundamental issue in West Asian nuclear matters is Israel's undeclared nuclear arsenal, not Iran's enrichment program under NPT.
Insights
1Unsustainable US Military Posture and Blockade
Ambassador Freeman asserts that the US Navy's prolonged blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is unsustainable. He points to critical issues within the US fleet, including low morale, failing equipment, and inadequate logistical support, which severely limit the duration and effectiveness of such an operation. This vulnerability is compounded by the fact that the blockade impacts global oil supply, not just Iran, creating widespread economic pressure.
The US Navy, with three aircraft carriers, is in 'pretty sad condition' with low morale, failing equipment, and insufficient supplies. The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is 'a blockade against every other country in the world,' causing shortages of oil, fertilizer, aluminum, and helium globally, leading to inflation. (, )
2Israel's Self-Destructive Policies and Eroding US Support
Freeman argues that Israel's aggressive and expansionist policies, particularly its actions in Lebanon and its pursuit of a 'Greater Israel' concept, are leading to its global isolation. He states that Israel's 'arrogance knows no bounds' and that its behavior has alienated international public opinion, including a majority in the United States, which has historically been its primary political and military protector. This erosion of support jeopardizes Israel's long-term survival.
American public opinion is 'no longer supportive of Israel,' putting Israel in a position where it risks losing 'external support which is essential for its survival.' Israel's actions in southern Lebanon, destroying dwellings and infrastructure, are aimed at 'get rid of the people who live there, make it impossible for them to return.' Israel is a 'state with no borders' that 'does not respect the frontiers it has with its neighbors,' expanding into Lebanon and Syria. (, , )
3Iran's Strategic Gains and Potential Nuclear Ambitions
Despite the conflict, Iran has demonstrated resilience and strategic acumen, effectively depleting US and Israeli arsenals. Freeman believes the war has strengthened Iran's nationalistic and hardline elements, creating a consensus within Tehran to develop nuclear weapons as a deterrent, following Israel's example. Iran's control over the Strait of Hormuz gives it significant leverage, forcing global powers to engage directly with it to ensure economic stability.
Iran has 'shown an amazing ability to accept pain and carry on' and will not 'easily submit.' The war has 'almost certainly created a consensus in Tehran that Iran must build a nuclear weapon.' Iran 'has the cards' because the Strait of Hormuz is 'vital to the global economy.' (, , )
4Shifting Global Alliances and China's Rise
The conflict has accelerated a reordering of global alliances. NATO is 'falling apart' due to US attempts to dictate its members' foreign policy beyond Europe. Countries like Spain are leading a 'democratic block' against American pressure. China is emerging as a significant beneficiary, enhancing its reputation as a peacemaker and gaining influence in the Persian Gulf as the US's dominant role diminishes. Gulf Arab states are likely to pivot towards diplomacy with Iran and reconsider US military presence.
NATO is 'falling apart before your very eyes' as the US treats its members as 'vassal states.' Spain has emerged as the 'conscience of Europe' and is leading a 'democratic block' against US pressure. China has 'emerged very much as the beneficiary of this war,' enhancing its reputation as a peacemaker. Gulf Arab countries will 'make their peace with Iran' and 'get rid of the American bases on their territory.' (, , , )
Bottom Line
The US Navy's operational capacity and crew morale are severely degraded, making prolonged military engagements or blockades unsustainable without significant internal reform and investment.
This suggests a critical vulnerability in US power projection, particularly in regions requiring sustained naval presence. It implies that current US military commitments may be overstretched and that adversaries like Iran are aware of and exploiting these limitations.
For defense strategists, this highlights the urgent need for internal audits, morale-boosting initiatives, and modernization programs within the Navy. For competitors, it presents opportunities to challenge US dominance in key maritime choke points.
Israel's aggressive foreign policy is not only alienating traditional allies but also inadvertently 'globalizing anti-Semitism' by conflating criticism of its actions with anti-Jewish sentiment, thereby undermining its own long-term security.
This suggests a profound strategic miscalculation by Israel, as its actions are eroding the very moral and political capital it relies on for international support. It creates a dangerous precedent where legitimate criticism of a state's actions is dismissed as bigotry, ultimately isolating Israel further.
For international diplomacy, this opens a window for non-state actors and moderate voices to differentiate between Israeli state policy and Jewish identity, potentially fostering more nuanced dialogue. For Israel, it necessitates a radical re-evaluation of its public relations and foreign policy strategies to rebuild trust and distinguish itself from its government's actions.
The 'Epstein files' and campaign financing are cited as direct influences on US foreign policy, particularly regarding Israel, suggesting a compromise of national interest for personal or political gain.
This implies that US foreign policy decisions are not solely based on strategic national interests but can be swayed by external pressures and compromising information. It undermines public trust in the integrity of political leadership and the democratic process.
For investigative journalism and political reform movements, this highlights the importance of transparency in campaign finance and the need for robust oversight mechanisms to prevent undue influence on foreign policy decisions. For rival nations, it offers potential leverage points by understanding the personal vulnerabilities of US leaders.
Lessons
- Policy makers should critically assess the long-term sustainability and strategic costs of military blockades, especially considering internal military readiness and global economic repercussions.
- Diplomats and international organizations should explore multilateral frameworks for regional peace in the Middle East that acknowledge Iran's strategic leverage and address the Israeli nuclear issue within a comprehensive non-proliferation context.
- Leaders of allied nations should re-evaluate their commitments to alliances like NATO, asserting national interests and resisting pressure to participate in conflicts outside their defensive mandates, particularly when US policy appears driven by external influences.
Quotes
"The Trump administration is in fact seriously divided internally and the only thing it can produce is an ultimatum. It can't actually mount a negotiation."
"The United States is treating NATO as a bunch of auxiliary fighters, people, vassal states that have to come on the United States wherever it goes."
"It's very clear that Israel has compromising information in its possession which could destroy Mr. Trump with his Christian nationalist base."
"There is no American interest whatsoever at stake in this with regard to Iran that is being served by this war."
"If Israel is destroyed, it will be the result of Israeli decisions."
"Israel is the greatest perpetrator of terrorism. It rules through terror in the area it controls. It terrorizes its neighbors."
"Israel has done something impossible. It's taken the European disease of anti-semitism and contaminated the entire world with it."
"Even Donald Trump in the difficult position he's in with regard to Israel was able to tell Benjamin Netanyahu you can't continue in Lebanon the way you were."
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