Seyed M. Marandi: Iran DROPPED THE HAMMER in Strait of Hormuz – Trump's ‘No Tolls’ Plan Backfires
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Summary
Takeaways
- ❖Iran views US attempts to control the Strait of Hormuz as a direct consequence of US/Israeli aggression, solidifying Iran's resolve to maintain sovereignty.
- ❖The US is perceived as a 'dying empire' whose leadership has 'lost its mind,' incapable of backing down and driven by 'Zionist' influence.
- ❖Iran's chief negotiator's strong statements reflect a national shift towards unwavering confidence, rejecting past 'excessive flexibility' in dealings with the US.
Insights
1Iran's Non-Negotiable Control Over Strait of Hormuz
Professor Marandi states that Iran will not negotiate anything about fees or give up authority over the Strait of Hormuz. He argues that before the war, Iran had no ambitions to control the Strait, but now it is a 'done deal' for security reasons and due to harm inflicted by Persian Gulf countries on Iranians. This position directly contradicts Trump's 'no tolls' plan.
Marandi: 'Iran did not negotiate anything about fees, and Iran is not going to give up authority over the Strait of Hormuz. That's, you know, that's a done deal. ... now it's very clear in the public sphere and and private conversations that Iran is not going to relinquish it for security reasons.'
2Iranian Distrust of US Commitments and Negotiation Tactics
Marandi highlights that despite progress in written communications, Trump's public statements often contradict the texts, making any agreement uncertain. He notes a widespread belief in Iran that the US, regardless of administration, is deceitful and will not implement deals, citing Obama's violations of the 2015 nuclear deal (JCPOA).
Marandi: 'The belief here is that even if the United States signs a deal, they're not going to implement the deal... The Americans have a very bad history when it comes to implementation. They're deceitful, they're dishonest, and it's not just Trump.'
3Iran's Conditional Reciprocation and Demand for Tangible Concessions
Iran's new negotiation strategy demands that the US demonstrate concessions and benefits first before Iran reciprocates. This is a direct response to perceived past cheating by the US and Europeans in the 2015 nuclear deal, where Iran fulfilled its obligations but received no benefits.
Marandi: 'They're saying that you have to show you have to We have to see you give the concessions. We have to see the benefits of your concessions before we reciprocate, not like last time round where we did everything and you did nothing.'
4Readiness for War and Rejection of Humiliation
The Iranian chief negotiator's strong statements emphasize that concessions are seized through 'missiles,' not dialogue, and that Iran is prepared for war. Marandi attributes this to a deep-seated Iranian cultural value of rejecting humiliation and standing up to oppression, cultivated by leaders like Ayatollah Khamenei.
Host: 'The winner of any agreement is the one who is better prepared for war from the day after.' Marandi: 'This sense of resilience and and this steadfastness and this this idea of standing up to oppression and support the oppressed and to reject being uh... is very strong in Iranian culture.'
5Hezbollah's Strategic Heroism and Regional Impact
Marandi praises Hezbollah's 'extraordinary' and 'sophisticated' fighting against surrounding enemies (Al-Qaeda, ISIS, Israeli regime, US-installed Beirut government). He highlights their sacrifices for the Palestinian people, drawing Israeli troops away from Gaza, and asserts that no deal with the US will occur until the regional slaughter and hostilities cease.
Marandi: 'Hezbollah to the east is surrounded by Al-Qaeda and ISIS, American proxies. ... And then you have this Israeli regime. They're surrounded. ... they're defeating the enemy. ... there will be no deal until the slaughter ends and there is a regional ceasefire and an and an end to the war.'
Bottom Line
The US is perceived as a 'dying empire' whose leadership has 'lost its mind' and cannot 'back down when they should back down,' leading to self-inflicted harm on the global economy.
This perception suggests that Iran views US actions as irrational and desperate, reducing the likelihood of successful diplomacy based on traditional power dynamics and increasing the risk of miscalculation and prolonged conflict.
For non-aligned nations, this presents an opportunity to position themselves as stable, rational actors in global affairs, potentially attracting investment and diplomatic influence away from perceived erratic superpowers.
Iran's post-war stance on the Strait of Hormuz has shifted from no prior ambition to control to a firm assertion of sovereignty and potential fees, directly caused by US/Israeli aggression.
This indicates a permanent change in Iran's strategic calculus regarding a vital global chokepoint. Any future 'agreement' that does not recognize Iran's territorial water claims and right to impose fees is likely to fail, leading to continued economic disruption.
Countries reliant on the Strait of Hormuz should diversify energy routes or engage directly with Iran to understand and potentially mitigate future transit costs and regulations, rather than relying on US guarantees.
Lessons
- Recognize that Iran's negotiation strategy has fundamentally shifted: it demands concrete, verifiable concessions from the US *before* reciprocating, rejecting past models of 'trust-based' agreements.
- Understand that Iran's control over the Strait of Hormuz is now considered non-negotiable and a matter of national dignity and security, not just economic leverage.
- Prepare for potential escalation, as Iran's leadership, including its chief negotiator, explicitly states a readiness for war and views US promises as unreliable, influenced by 'Zionist' and 'neocon' pressures.
Notable Moments
Professor Marandi's assertion that 'international law means nothing' to Western powers, only serving their interests, citing the genocide in Gaza and past actions against Iran.
This statement underscores a profound disillusionment with the international legal framework from the Iranian perspective, suggesting that Iran will prioritize its own security and interests over adherence to norms it perceives as selectively applied.
The Iranian chief negotiator's public statements: 'We seize concessions not through dialogue, but with missiles,' and 'the winner of any agreement is the one who is better prepared for war from the day after.'
Quotes
"Iran did not negotiate anything about fees, and Iran is not going to give up authority over the Strait of Hormuz. That's, you know, that's a done deal."
"The belief here is that even if the United States signs a deal, they're not going to implement the deal, and that we're going to reach most probably a dead end well before the end of the two months, and that war could start again."
"International law means nothing. It only means something when it's suits their interests."
"We seize concessions not through dialogue, but with missiles. In negotiations, we merely make them understand. ... The winner of any agreement is the one who is better prepared for war from the day after."
"The more the Americans push, the harder we push back."
Q&A
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