Col. Larry Wilkerson: Iran’s Quds Force chief: Red Sea Chokepoint next Hormuz
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Summary
Takeaways
- ❖Israel faces an existential threat from Hezbollah's fiber-optic FPV drones, which are difficult to detect and jam, rendering traditional defenses ineffective.
- ❖The US administration is perceived as 'lost' and 'losing' in its Middle East strategy, lacking meaningful diplomatic engagement with Iran and relying on ineffective delaying tactics.
- ❖Iran is receiving inexhaustible supplies from Russia and China via a Chinese railroad into Tehran and Caspian Sea routes, providing significant strategic depth.
- ❖Proposed US House NDAA Section 224 aims to permanently merge the US and Israeli security complexes, eliminating oversight on US military aid and technology transfer to Israel.
- ❖Benjamin Netanyahu's political desperation, facing potential jail time and declining public support, is driving aggressive military actions and a 'final solution' mentality.
- ❖The US military's efforts to interdict drug flows in the Pacific and Caribbean have had zero impact on supply or street prices, despite significant resources and questionable legality of operations.
- ❖Young Americans show little willingness to participate in a draft for foreign conflicts, indicating a lack of public support for prolonged military engagements.
- ❖Iran has established a 'Persian Gulf Strait Authority' (PGSA), collecting tolls from over 300 non-Iranian ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz, generating substantial income.
- ❖The US is dependent on the Strait of Hormuz for specific types of oil (heavy crude for diesel) and other critical resources like helium and urea, despite claims of energy independence.
Insights
1Hezbollah's Drone Superiority Against Israel
Hezbollah is effectively using small, fiber-optic guided drones that fly low, are difficult to detect, cannot be easily jammed, and provide live video feeds to operators for precise impact. This technology, observed in Ukraine, has rendered Israel's vaunted military and intelligence complex without an immediate solution, pushing Israel towards destructive ground incursions into Lebanon.
Israeli UN Ambassador Danny Danon described Hezbollah's drones as weighing less than 2 kg, flying low, difficult to detect, and using a thin cable for direct control without relying on radio signals. Wilkerson noted these drones have been operational in Ukraine for 28-30 months, questioning Israel's delayed recognition. Israel's proposed solution is to 'go as fast as they can to the north and kill everything inside.'
2US Strategic Defeat and the Rise of a Multipolar World
The United States is not merely fighting Iran but is indirectly engaged in a proxy conflict with China and Russia, who are providing extensive logistical support to Iran. This includes a Chinese railroad into Tehran and Caspian Sea routes, ensuring inexhaustible supplies. Wilkerson argues the US is losing these 'preliminary skirmishes' and lacks a strategic mindset to comprehend the scale of this global power shift, leading to a profound strategic defeat for the American empire.
Wilkerson details a Chinese railroad through Mashhad into Tehran and Caspian Sea routes, stating, 'you have inexhaustible supplies coming in from Russia and China.' He asserts, 'We're not fighting Iran. We're only fighting Iran as a proxy of China. We're fighting China. And this is not a fight we're going to win.' He also mentions losing the 'preliminary skirmish in Ukraine, too.'
3Proposed US-Israel Security Complex Merger and Loss of Oversight
New legislation (Section 224 of the House NDAA) is being advanced to create a permanent, unchecked 'marriage' between the US and Israeli defense industries. This would eliminate the need for a renewed Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) and remove congressional oversight (like the Leahy Law) on how US weapons and technology are used by Israel, even if they result in civilian casualties.
Wilkerson explains that House Speaker Johnson is supervising Section 224 of the House NDAA, which 'is essentially creating a mechanism whereby the United States and Israel will go to a marriage' in the security complex. He states, 'there's going to be no oversight' and 'there won't be any Leahy Law' when Israel 'kills people with our weapon systems that it isn't supposed to be killing like civilians and women and children.'
4Iran's Control and Monetization of the Strait of Hormuz
Iran, in coordination with Oman, has established the 'Persian Gulf Strait Authority' (PGSA), effectively levying tolls on non-Iranian ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz. This demonstrates Iran's control over the vital chokepoint and its ability to generate substantial revenue, challenging US claims of free passage and exposing US dependence on the Strait for specific oil types and other resources.
A report cited by the host states that 'since establishment of the PGSA more than 300 non-Iranian ships have crossed the Strait of Hormuz in coordination with Iran and after paying tolls.' Wilkerson confirms, 'The income has been substantial. Iran's income has been substantial, I'm told.' He also notes the US dependence on the Strait for 'light oil that the United States produces is not good for producing diesel' and other resources like 'fertilizer, urea, you've got helium.'
Bottom Line
The US military's anti-drug operations in the Pacific and Caribbean are a 'black mark' on its record, as they involve killing people without due process and have demonstrably failed to impact drug supply or cost in the US for 30 years.
This reveals a profound disconnect between military action and stated policy goals, highlighting a potential waste of resources, ethical compromises, and a lack of accountability within the US military establishment, despite internal knowledge of ineffectiveness.
A critical re-evaluation of military roles in non-traditional security operations is needed, potentially shifting resources to more effective domestic or international law enforcement strategies, or re-prioritizing military focus on core defense objectives.
The US is unable to domestically source critical rare earth minerals, despite their existence within the country, due to political and environmental hurdles (e.g., eminent domain, public opposition), making it reliant on China.
This self-imposed limitation creates a strategic vulnerability, particularly for the military-industrial complex's chip production, and undermines national security by ceding control of essential supply chains to geopolitical rivals.
Develop a national strategy for critical mineral extraction that balances environmental concerns with national security needs, potentially through public-private partnerships, technological innovation for less impactful mining, or a re-evaluation of eminent domain policies for strategic resources.
Key Concepts
Logistics Wins Wars
The principle that the ability to supply and sustain military forces over long distances is often the decisive factor in conflict outcomes. Wilkerson applies this to Iran's advantage with Russian and Chinese logistical support via rail and sea, contrasting it with the US's overstretched supply lines.
Imperial Overstretch/Dismemberment
The concept that empires collapse when their commitments exceed their resources, leading to internal decay and external defeat. Wilkerson suggests the US is in a phase of 'dismemberment,' where its global military presence and economic model (living on borrowed money) are unsustainable, leading to internal political fragmentation and a loss of global influence.
Lessons
- Advocate for increased congressional oversight and public transparency regarding military aid and technology transfers to foreign nations, especially concerning human rights compliance.
- Support a re-evaluation of US foreign policy in the Middle East, moving away from military intervention and towards diplomatic solutions that acknowledge the changing geopolitical landscape and the rise of regional powers.
- Investigate the strategic implications of US reliance on foreign supply chains for critical minerals and energy, pushing for policies that enhance domestic resilience and reduce dependence on geopolitical rivals.
Quotes
"Why are you just now, you vaunted Israeli military and intelligence complex, why are you just now coming up with this?"
"We are up against not just Iran, but we're up against Central Asia recognizing where its bread is buttered. And its bread is buttered not in the West. It's buttered in China and buttered in Russia."
"This is going to bury Israel into the United States security complex irretrievably and almost as if we were the same country. In other words, their wildest dream to be the 51st state of the United States and be the most powerful state will be brought to bear and to being by this legislation."
"What embarrasses me is the only person that I know has come out and said that killing 200 people on the high seas without due process and having zero impact on the drug flow into the United States of America and yet continuing to do it. That is the black mark on the American military..."
"Implement a draft, country fall apart. America would fall apart. There would be no 1939-1940."
Q&A
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