Internal Coup? Was Maduro BETRAYED By His VP
Quick Read
Summary
Takeaways
- ❖Deli Rodriguez's initial fiery rhetoric and subsequent conciliatory statement indicate a strategic shift following Maduro's capture, likely part of a pre-arranged deal.
- ❖The Rodriguez siblings (Deli and Jorge) were long-term, pragmatic players in Venezuelan politics, distinct from the original Chavista core, and were key negotiators with the US.
- ❖Their unsanctioned status by the US, unlike many other regime figures, suggests they were seen as viable partners for a power transition.
- ❖The US prioritized stability and access to Venezuela's vast resources (oil, gold, rare earths) by supporting the Rodriguez faction, dismissing the traditional opposition as lacking military control.
- ❖The situation is volatile, with internal power struggles and potential for grassroots opposition to the new arrangement, despite the regime's efforts to legitimize it.
Insights
1Deli Rodriguez's Calculated Ascent to Power
Deli Rodriguez, formerly Maduro's Vice President, became the active president of Venezuela following Maduro's capture. This transition is framed as a potential negotiation with the Trump administration. Her initial bombastic anti-imperialist statement was quickly followed by a conciliatory message seeking cooperation with the US, suggesting a strategic shift to adapt to new realities while maintaining power.
Rodriguez's contradictory public statements ( - vs. - ) and the expert's analysis of a 'negotiation for this outcome' ().
2The Rodriguez Siblings: Pragmatic Power Brokers
Deli Rodriguez and her brother Jorge are characterized as astute, intelligent, and pragmatic individuals who have been involved in the Venezuelan government for years. Unlike core Chavistas, they were not part of the original grassroots movement but held powerful positions. Their long-term objective was to rise to the presidency, and they were the key negotiators with Washington. Notably, neither has been sanctioned by the US, unlike almost every other high-ranking Venezuelan official.
Expert Ava Gallinger describes them as 'very astute and intelligent' (), 'playing a long game here' (), and highlights that 'both her and her brother Jorge have never been sanctioned by the United States' ().
3US Strategy: Stability and Resources Over Traditional Opposition
The Trump administration's decision to support the Rodriguez faction, effectively dismissing the traditional Venezuelan opposition figures like Maria Corina Machado, was a pragmatic choice. The Rodriguez siblings could guarantee stability and access to Venezuela's oil and other resources because they command the military and security forces, unlike the opposition. This approach prioritized immediate US interests over promoting a specific opposition group.
Gallinger states, 'Trump did completely dismiss the opposition and Maria Kian Machal' () and that Deli 'sold it really well to Rubio and Trump' () by arguing 'we are the ones who can maintain stability. We are the ones who can guarantee access to the oil' ().
4Maduro's Capture: A Deal, Not Necessarily a Facade
While a deal likely facilitated Deli Rodriguez's rise, the expert believes Maduro was not 'in on' his own capture. The US had a military buildup in the region, and not using it would have emboldened Maduro. His capture provided Trump with a 'victory' and allowed the existing regime, under new leadership, to remain in power, avoiding a full-scale civil war.
Gallinger states, 'I don't think that he was in on it' () and 'Trump had a buildup in the military in the region that if if he wasn't going to use it, he was going to look like a big loser' ().
Bottom Line
The US strategy in Venezuela, by supporting the Rodriguez faction, demonstrates a shift from attempting to install a specific opposition leader to backing a pragmatic, albeit repressive, existing power structure that can ensure stability and resource access.
This suggests a transactional foreign policy approach where 'regime change' might involve a leadership swap within the existing power elite rather than a complete overhaul, prioritizing economic and geopolitical interests over democratic ideals.
Analysts should look for similar patterns in other resource-rich nations with internal power struggles, where external powers might seek to co-opt elements of existing regimes for strategic stability.
The unsanctioned status of key negotiators like Deli and Jorge Rodriguez highlights a deliberate, long-term US intelligence and diplomatic strategy to cultivate alternative power centers within adversary regimes.
Sanction lists and indictments may not always reflect the full scope of US engagement, and the absence of sanctions on certain figures can be a strong indicator of their utility in future political transitions.
Investigate sanction patterns in other geopolitical hotspots to identify potential 'moderate' or 'pragmatic' figures being groomed for future leadership roles by external powers.
Notable Moments
Chavez's prediction of the 'Noriega formula' being applied to him, where he would be accused of drug trafficking.
This prediction, made years prior, accurately foreshadowed the US strategy against Maduro, highlighting a consistent playbook for destabilizing and delegitimizing leaders in resource-rich nations.
Quotes
"Both her and her brother Jorge have never been sanctioned by the United States or implicated in any of these indictments whereas pretty much almost every other member figurehead of the government has been."
"We are the ones who can maintain stability. We are the ones who can guarantee access to the oil which is what Trump wants and everything else in the country."
"Years ago, someone told me they're going to end up accusing you of being a drug trafficker. You personally, you Chavez, not just that the government supports it or permits it. No, they're going to try to apply the Noriega formula to you."
"I have all the oil and all the gold. What the f do I need to deal drugs for?"
Q&A
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