Trump PANICS as SCOTUS SCREWS his MIDTERM SCHEME | Unprecedented
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Summary
Takeaways
- ❖The Constitution (Article 1, Section 4 and 10th Amendment) assigns federal election logistics to states, with Congress able to alter, but not the President.
- ❖Supreme Court precedent, including *Moore v. Harper*, affirms state legislative authority over elections, subject to judicial review, and explicitly limits federal executive power.
- ❖The Purcell doctrine dictates that courts are less likely to interfere with election rules closer to an election, making a rapid federal takeover before midterms unlikely.
- ❖Trump's past attempts, like executive orders changing voter requirements or seizing voting data, have been blocked by federal courts.
- ❖The Supreme Court is deliberating a critical Voting Rights Act case (*Cala* from Louisiana) that could impact race-conscious redistricting, potentially weakening the Act.
- ❖A ruling on the Voting Rights Act is anticipated late in the Supreme Court term (April-June), likely too late to affect current midterm congressional maps.
Insights
1Constitutional Framework for Election Administration
The U.S. Constitution, specifically Article 1, Section 4, grants states the power to prescribe the 'times, places and manner' of holding elections for senators and representatives. The 10th Amendment reserves powers not delegated to the federal government to the states. Critically, Article II, which defines presidential powers, grants no authority over election administration. This means the President has no constitutional basis to nationalize or seize control of state-run federal elections.
Article 1, Section 4; 10th Amendment; Article II; historical interpretation by the framers to prevent federal government overreach in elections.
2Supreme Court Precedent Against Executive Election Interference
The Supreme Court has consistently ruled that the federal executive branch has no role in operating federal elections. This was reinforced by the *Moore v. Harper* decision (2023), which rejected the 'Independent State Legislature Theory' that would have given state legislatures unchecked power over elections, affirming that state courts can review election laws. This precedent further limits any presidential attempts to unilaterally alter election processes.
Supreme Court cases around 2020; *Moore v. Harper* (2023) ruling, which was 6-3 against the ISLT, affirming judicial review over state legislative election rules.
3Purcell Doctrine and Midterm Election Impact
The Purcell doctrine, a judicially created principle, states that courts are highly reluctant to change election rules close to an election. Given that the midterm election season is already underway (February is ballot printing season), any attempts by Trump to implement sweeping changes would face immediate legal challenges and would likely be blocked by courts applying the Purcell doctrine, preventing them from impacting the upcoming midterms.
The Purcell doctrine; current election calendar (February is ballot printing season).
4Threat to Voting Rights Act via Louisiana Redistricting Case (*Cala*)
The Supreme Court is currently deliberating a case from Louisiana (*Cala*) concerning the Voting Rights Act (VRA). The case questions whether Louisiana's redistricting map, which created only one majority-black district despite a significant black population, violates the VRA. White voters argue that using race to remedy dilution violates equal protection. The hosts predict the conservative majority may issue a ruling that weakens the VRA, potentially making it harder to draw race-conscious districts to prevent minority vote dilution.
The *Cala* case out of Louisiana; the Supreme Court's decision to revisit the case and fast-track arguments; historical push by Justices Thomas and Alito to weaken the VRA.
Lessons
- Understand that the President lacks constitutional authority to nationalize federal elections; this power is reserved for states and Congress.
- Be aware that legal challenges to executive overreach in elections are likely to succeed in federal courts, upholding the constitutional division of powers.
- Monitor the Supreme Court's upcoming decision on the Voting Rights Act, as it could significantly impact future redistricting and voter protections, particularly for minority groups.
Quotes
"The federal government certainly has no role in the operation of federal elections. That that may come as a surprise to people especially around the world that we have in this way we've divided the world in federalism between state and federal why the states were given the elections."
"The closer you get to an election, the less likely we are to interfere with it."
"The less people who vote, the more electoral success the Republicans get. By contrast, the more people that vote, the more likely it is that a Democrat will prevail against an average Republican."
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