Bulwark Takes
Bulwark Takes
April 19, 2026

Europe Is Preparing for Life Without America (w/ Richard Stengel) | How to Fix It

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Quick Read

As American soft power declines and alliances fray, Europe is actively preparing for a future without consistent US leadership, while recent elections in Hungary offer a surprising blueprint for restoring democracy against authoritarianism.
US 'soft power' has significantly eroded, making traditional alliances and influence less dependable.
Europe is actively considering a post-US-led security framework, with nations like France and the UK stepping up.
The recent Hungarian election offers a hopeful model for restoring democracy through grassroots anti-corruption campaigns, even against media capture.

Summary

Richard Stengel, former Under Secretary of State for Public Diplomacy, discusses the significant decline in America's global reputation and soft power, particularly under the Trump administration. He highlights how US allies, especially in Europe, are now contemplating a future where they cannot rely on consistent American leadership, leading to increased self-reliance in defense and foreign policy. Stengel defines public diplomacy as the use of 'soft power'—cultural and educational influence—and argues that government efforts are less effective than private sector contributions (like Taylor Swift's global reach). The conversation also delves into the recent Hungarian election, framing it as a hopeful example of how a grassroots movement against corruption can successfully challenge an entrenched authoritarian regime, even one that had captured media and institutions. Stengel proposes concrete solutions for a future Democratic administration to rebuild US public diplomacy, including restoring and realigning USAID, reforming US global media, and increasing budgets for cultural engagement.
The erosion of American soft power and the perceived unreliability of its alliances have profound implications for global stability and the future of democratic norms. As the US retreats from its traditional role, other nations are forced to fill the void, potentially leading to a more fragmented and unpredictable international order. The Hungarian election serves as a critical case study, demonstrating that even in seemingly captured states, a determined electorate can reclaim democratic agency by focusing on tangible issues like corruption. Understanding these dynamics is essential for policymakers and citizens alike to navigate a rapidly changing geopolitical landscape and to identify pathways for strengthening democratic institutions both at home and abroad.

Takeaways

  • America's global reputation and soft power have plummeted, particularly under recent administrations, leading to international skepticism about US reliability.
  • US allies, especially in Europe, are increasingly planning for a future with reduced American engagement in global security and alliances.
  • Public diplomacy, defined as 'soft power' through culture and education, is more effectively wielded by the private sector than by government agencies.
  • The Hungarian election, where Victor Orban's party lost ground, is a significant, underreported victory for democracy, demonstrating that grassroots movements against corruption can overcome entrenched authoritarianism and media capture.
  • Proposed solutions for rebuilding US public diplomacy include restoring USAID with policy alignment, reforming US global media for targeted outreach, and leveraging private sector cultural influence.
  • The biggest challenge for contemporary leadership is overcoming polarization, a lesson drawn from Nelson Mandela's approach to reconciliation.

Insights

1The Erosion of American Soft Power and Global Trust

America's global reputation, which historically rose with popular presidents like Bill Clinton and Barack Obama, has plummeted significantly following the Iraq War and especially during the Trump administration. This decline is attributed to perceived unilateralism, a disregard for alliances, and a leadership style seen as 'bumptious and vulgar.' Despite efforts to declare 'America is back,' international partners question the longevity of US commitment, leading them to prepare for a future with less American leadership.

US popularity dropped into the 30s and 40s in most places during Trump's terms. Biden's 'America is back' was met with 'for how long?' from global publics. The 'America First' approach, despite campaigning on isolationism, led to war and further isolation.

2Europe's Shift Towards Self-Reliance in Security

In response to perceived US unreliability and Russian aggression, European nations like Britain and France are actively seeking to assume greater roles within NATO and develop their own defense capabilities. This shift, while an unintended consequence of US policy, aligns with long-standing American desires for allies to contribute more, but it also signifies a fundamental change in the global security architecture.

Stories emerged about the British and French trying to assume some of the US role in NATO. European nations have increased defense spending due to Vladimir Putin's actions in Ukraine, not solely due to US pressure.

3Hungary's Election as a Democratic Blueprint

The recent election in Hungary, which saw Victor Orban's party lose significant ground, is presented as a hopeful model for restoring democracy in states facing authoritarian consolidation and media capture. The opposition's success stemmed from a grassroots campaign focused on palpable issues like corruption, rather than abstract ideology, demonstrating that people ultimately desire self-governance and can find trusted information.

Victor Orban, an 'elected autocrat' and a model for the right (CPAC hero), oversaw a nation that is the poorest and most corrupt in the EU. The opposition, led by Mr. Magiar, campaigned directly to the people against corruption, resulting in a landslide victory that Orban conceded fairly.

4Reforming US Public Diplomacy for a New Era

To repair America's damaged reputation and effectively project its values, a future administration must undertake a comprehensive reform of public diplomacy. This includes restoring and strategically aligning USAID with foreign policy objectives, revitalizing global media outlets like Voice of America by focusing on specific audiences and embracing independent journalism, and leveraging the private sector's cultural influence (e.g., Taylor Swift) as a 'handmaiden' to government efforts.

USAID, which accounts for less than 1% of the budget, is a powerful tool for empathy and aid ('from the American people'). US global media (USAGM) was hobbled by the previous administration, but its 'secret sauce' was objective, self-critical reporting. The host and guest discuss the need to reconceive these efforts, focusing on specific countries and modern communication methods.

Lessons

  • Restore and strategically align USAID funding with current foreign policy objectives, emphasizing its role in projecting American empathy and values globally.
  • Revitalize US global media entities (e.g., Voice of America) by reforming their structure, focusing on targeted audiences in key countries, and ensuring objective, self-critical reporting to build trust.
  • Increase public diplomacy budgets for embassies and consulates to foster cultural exchange and leverage the global reach of American private sector cultural figures (e.g., musicians, artists) to enhance soft power.

Quotes

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"Public diplomacy is how you influence foreign publics, foreign nations using soft power. That is not military power, not economic power, but cultural power, educational power, music, art."

Rick Stengel
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"America first, which now is actually caused it to get into war, is something that makes us much more isolated and much less popular to an extraordinary extent."

Rick Stengel
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"Hungary is the poorest nation in the EU. Hungary, according to the Heritage Foundation, is the most corrupt nation in the EU. Hungary is about the the size of P size of Pennsylvania and the population of Pennsylvania. the Pennsylvania economy is 10 times the size of Hungary's economy. So, it's like this this ex this country is not an example of success. It's an example of failure."

Rick Stengel
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"Taylor Swift, as I think I said at the time, is the most powerful and effective public diplomacy ambassador in America."

Rick Stengel

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