"Why Are We Going to War?": Former U.S. Middle East Officials Say Trump Has "No Clear Plan" on Iran
Quick Read
Summary
Takeaways
- ❖US and Israeli attacks on Iran have entered their sixth day, causing over 1,230 reported deaths and striking 174 Iranian cities.
- ❖Iran has retaliated by attacking US military targets in Kuwait, Bahrain, and the UAE, and a US oil tanker in the Persian Gulf.
- ❖A US submarine torpedoed an Iranian naval vessel off Sri Lanka, killing at least 87 people.
- ❖Oman's foreign minister revealed that indirect US-Iran nuclear talks had achieved a 'new deal' preventing Iran from stockpiling nuclear material, just prior to the US attack.
- ❖Former Pentagon official Jasmine Elgamal criticized the Trump administration for having 'no clear plan' or 'well-thought-out strategy' for the war.
- ❖Secretary of State Marco Rubio's justifications for the war shifted from preemptive action due to an 'Israeli action' to President Trump's 'good feeling' about an impending Iranian strike.
- ❖Elgamal suggests Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu has long sought to draw the US into war with Iran, viewing Iran as weak and vulnerable.
- ❖Former diplomat Halerret evacuated her family from Dubai to Oman due to the escalating conflict, noting the lack of a missile defense system for civilians in Gaza, unlike Dubai.
- ❖Reports indicate US military commanders are framing the war as 'part of God's divine plan' and President Trump as 'anointed by Jesus to light the signal fire in Iran to core Armageddon'.
- ❖The human cost of the war is devastating, with nearly 1,200 killed and injured, and tens of thousands displaced in just five days.
Insights
1US Lacked Clear Plan for Iran War, Justifications Shifted
Jasmine Elgamal, former Middle East adviser at the Pentagon, asserted that the Trump administration initiated the war with Iran without answering fundamental questions: 'Why are we going to war?' and 'What are our objectives, are they achievable, and what is our exit strategy?' She noted that no official, from Defense Secretary Pete Hegsath to Secretary of State Marco Rubio or President Trump, adequately addressed these points. The administration's rationale for striking Iran evolved daily, from Rubio's claim of preemptive action due to an impending Israeli attack on US forces to White House Press Secretary Carolyn Levit's statement that Trump had a 'good feeling' Iran would strike.
Elgamal states, 'neither of those two buckets of questions have been adequately answered by the US administration' (). She also highlights the shifting justifications: Rubio's statement on an 'Israeli action' () and Levit's 'good feeling' comment ().
2Diplomatic Progress Undermined by Military Action
Indirect US-Iran nuclear talks, mediated by Oman's foreign minister Badr bin Hammad Abu Sidi, had reportedly achieved a significant breakthrough. The Omani foreign minister stated that an agreement was reached ensuring 'Iran will never ever have a nuclear material that will create a bomb,' a 'completely new' achievement compared to the Obama-era deal, focusing on zero stockpiling of enriched material. This progress was made just before the US launched its attacks on Iran, suggesting a diplomatic solution was actively being pursued and potentially ignored.
Oman's foreign minister Badr Abu Sedi described the 'single most important achievement' as the agreement that 'Iran will never ever have a nuclear material that will create a bomb' (). The host notes this was 'something completely new' () and was being conveyed directly to the President.
3Netanyahu's Long-Standing Push for US-Iran Conflict
Jasmine Elgamal suggests that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has 'for decades trying to drag the US into war with Iran.' She cites Senator Van Holland's comment that Netanyahu 'just hadn't found a president stupid enough' until now. Elgamal explains that those pushing for war believed it was 'now or never' because Iran was perceived to be at its 'weakest point' from security, defense, proxy, economic, and internal domestic perspectives. This perspective implies the US attack was influenced by external pressure rather than an imminent threat.
Elgamal states, 'Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has been for decades trying to drag the US into war with Iran' () and 'President Trump was under heavy pressure from Prime Minister Netanyahu to strike Iran while it was down, while it was weak' ().
4Regional Escalation and Humanitarian Crisis
Halerret, an 18-year career diplomat, described the rapid escalation of the conflict, forcing her to evacuate her family from Dubai to Oman due to missile strikes and fighter jet noises. She emphasized that this regional conflict was a direct consequence of the US's unconditional support for Israel's actions, particularly in Gaza, and that weapons supplied to Israel were being used for a wider regional conflict. The host also reported 77 deaths in Lebanon and 300,000 evacuations, alongside 1,230 deaths in Iran, highlighting the severe humanitarian impact.
Halerret recounts, 'we could hear them very loudly in Dubai... we could hear the fighter jets and we could also hear the interceptions' (). She warned that 'these weapons were not only being used for the genocide in Gaza, but that they were going to be used for a regional conflict with Iran' ().
5Religious Extremism Influencing Military Justification
The Military Religious Freedom Foundation reported over 200 calls from US military members concerning religious comments by commanders about the war. One combat unit commander allegedly stated the war is 'part of God's divine plan' and that 'President Trump's been anointed by Jesus to light the signal fire in Iran to cor Armageddon.' This indicates a concerning blend of religious nationalism and military decision-making, which Jasmine Elgamal described as 'absolutely horrifying' and 'extremely irresponsible,' leading to 'ill-thought-out US interventions' with devastating human costs.
The host reports the combat unit commander's quote about 'God's divine plan' and Trump being 'anointed by Jesus' (). Elgamal responds, 'it is absolutely horrifying because it means that we are sending American soldiers US using American taxpayer money to a region that has been ravaged over the years by successive illthoughtout US interventions' ().
Lessons
- Scrutinize official justifications for military action, especially when rationales shift or lack clear evidence of imminent threat.
- Advocate for congressional oversight and adherence to war powers resolutions to prevent executive overreach in initiating conflicts.
- Support diplomatic efforts and mediators, recognizing that military action can undermine ongoing negotiations and escalate conflicts unnecessarily.
- Monitor the influence of religious or ideological extremism on foreign policy and military decisions, challenging narratives that bypass legal and ethical considerations.
- Educate yourself and others on the humanitarian costs of conflict, recognizing the broad impact beyond immediate military objectives.
Notable Moments
Halerret, an 18-year career diplomat, publicly resigned from the State Department over the Biden administration's Gaza policy and subsequently evacuated her family from Dubai to Oman due to the escalating war with Iran.
This personal action by a seasoned diplomat underscores the severity of the regional conflict and the profound moral and practical dilemmas faced by those within the US foreign policy apparatus, highlighting the direct impact of policy decisions on individuals and families in the region.
Oman's foreign minister, Badr bin Hammad Abu Sidi, flew from Geneva to Washington D.C. to directly convey to the US President, via media, that a 'better deal' had been reached with Iran regarding its nuclear program, specifically preventing nuclear material stockpiling.
This extraordinary diplomatic maneuver suggests a desperate attempt to inform the US leadership of significant progress in nuclear negotiations, implying that the subsequent military action was either uninformed or deliberately disregarded a viable diplomatic path, raising questions about the decision-making process.
Quotes
"We knew that there was going to be an Israeli action. We knew that that would precipitate an attack against American forces. And we knew that if we didn't preemptively go after them before they launched those attacks, we would suffer higher casualties and perhaps even hire those killed. And then we would all be here answering questions about why we knew that and didn't act."
"I think the president prior to that phone call uh had a good feeling that the Iranian regime was going to strike uh the United States assets in our personnel in the region."
"Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has been for decades trying to drag the US into war with Iran. Senator Van Holland yesterday said he just hadn't found a president stupid enough to be dragged into that war."
"This Iranian regime was a brutal oppressive regime uh and second that it is not uh a legal justification to go to war to have the president talk about his feeling that Iran was going to strike."
"One combat unit commander reportedly said the war is quote part of God's divine plan and that quote President Trump's been anointed by Jesus to light the signal fire in Iran to cor Armageddon and mark his return to earthqu."
Q&A
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