Bill and Sarah Ask: How Bad Can It Get? | Bulwark on Sunday
Quick Read
Summary
Takeaways
- ❖The military operation in Venezuela was successful, but the Trump administration's subsequent statements revealed a profound lack of planning for the aftermath.
- ❖Trump's rhetoric explicitly framed the Venezuela intervention as a 'war for oil' and linked it to domestic deployments of the National Guard in American cities, revealing authoritarian aspirations.
- ❖The hosts express deep concern that the administration's 'apple dumpling gang idiocy' (05:22) undermines the professionalism of the military and risks destabilizing the region.
- ❖The legality of the Venezuela operation is murky, but its practical implications for stability and democratic transition are far more critical than legal debates.
- ❖Public opinion is crucial for diminishing Trump's influence; a significant drop in his approval (to 32%) is seen as necessary to curb his power and encourage institutional resistance.
- ❖Democrats need to move beyond a defensive, reactive stance to an 'offense mentality,' building a broad, forward-looking pro-democracy coalition to address long-term structural disadvantages.
- ❖Concerns are raised about Trump's allies seizing control of communication platforms (e.g., Elon Musk's X, CBS/Barry Weiss) and the potential for corruption within federal agencies to consolidate power.
Insights
1Venezuela Intervention: Professional Execution, Chaotic Aftermath
The military operation to remove Maduro was executed professionally by the U.S. military. However, the Trump administration's subsequent public statements, particularly from Trump himself, demonstrated a complete absence of a coherent plan for the post-intervention phase. This disconnect between military competence and administrative 'idiocy' (05:22) creates significant instability.
Sarah Longwell notes the tension between 'the professionalism and excellence of the American military' and 'the total apple dumpling gang idiocy of this administration' (). Bill Crystal highlights Trump's claim 'we're running the country' () without any troops on the ground.
2Shift to 'War for Oil' and Domestic Authoritarian Parallels
Trump's framing of the Venezuela intervention explicitly prioritized oil extraction over democracy promotion, marking a significant departure from previous foreign policy rationales. More alarmingly, Trump drew direct parallels between intervening in Venezuela and deploying the National Guard in American cities, revealing a consistent authoritarian mindset that blurs the lines between foreign and domestic power projection.
Sarah Longwell states, 'Trump is explicitly saying this is a war we want the oil back' (). She later describes Trump's 'chilling' () aside about deploying the National Guard in American cities, connecting it to his desire to 'do whatever he wants' () in Venezuela.
3Public Opinion as the Linchpin for Curbing Trump's Power
The ability of civil society, Congress, and even the Supreme Court to curb Trump's actions is directly tied to his public approval ratings. A significant decline in public support (below 32%) is crucial to weaken his influence and prevent his authoritarian project from gaining traction, impacting not only the current administration but also future elections.
Sarah Longwell argues that 'public opinion cratering is almost is sort of the first step to what Trump can and can't do' (). She notes Trump's current 41% approval and the need to get him to 32% () to shift voter behavior.
4The Imperative for a Proactive 'Offense Mentality' from Democrats
To effectively counter Trumpism, pro-democracy forces, particularly Democrats, must abandon a reactive, defensive posture and adopt a long-term 'offense mentality.' This involves building a broad, durable coalition, understanding structural political disadvantages (like in the Senate), and proactively challenging Trump's excesses rather than just reacting to them.
Sarah Longwell emphasizes the need for Democrats to have 'an offense mentality that isn't just reacting to Trump' () and to 'build the biggest broadest coalition possible' () to 'stamp out what is happening now' ().
Bottom Line
The 'mission accomplished' declaration by Trump and Pete Hegseth just 12 hours after the Venezuela operation, compared to Bush's six weeks after the Iraq invasion, highlights an unprecedented level of bravado and disregard for the complexities of foreign intervention.
This extreme impulsiveness signals a dangerous lack of strategic foresight and an overestimation of American power, making future interventions prone to rapid failure and significant blowback.
Opponents can leverage this immediate 'mission accomplished' hubris as a potent political weapon if the Venezuela situation deteriorates, demonstrating Trump's incompetence in managing complex international affairs.
Trump's administration is actively consolidating control over information dissemination platforms, including social media (Elon Musk's X) and traditional media (CBS/Barry Weiss), to ensure a media environment sympathetic to his narratives.
This 'seizing the means of communications' (43:00) poses a severe threat to informed public discourse and the ability of citizens to discern truth, making it harder to counter authoritarian narratives.
Pro-democracy advocates must develop sophisticated counter-narrative strategies and invest in alternative, trusted information channels to bypass increasingly controlled mainstream and social media landscapes.
Lessons
- Pro-democracy forces must adopt a long-term 'offense mentality,' proactively building broad coalitions and developing a clear, forward-looking vision for America beyond reacting to Trump's actions.
- Democrats should focus messaging on the tangible negative impacts of Trump's policies, such as economic recession, tariffs, and the destabilizing effects of impulsive foreign policy, to erode his public support.
- Advocates for democracy need to actively undercut Trump's power by scrutinizing and challenging the weaponization of government agencies (DHS, DOJ) and the consolidation of media control by his allies.
Building a Durable Pro-Democracy Coalition Against Trumpism
**Shift to an Offensive Mindset:** Move beyond defensive reactions to Trump's actions. Proactively define a positive vision for America's future, rather than solely focusing on what Trump is doing wrong.
**Target Trump's Approval:** Strategically work to lower Trump's public approval rating to below 32% by highlighting the real-world negative consequences of his policies (e.g., economic recession, tariffs, foreign policy chaos).
**Build Broad Coalitions:** Actively engage and unite diverse voter groups, including 'never Trump red dog Republicans,' 'Trump populist voters,' and disaffected demographics like Hispanics, by addressing their concerns and offering compelling alternatives.
**Counter Power Consolidation:** Expose and resist attempts by Trump and his allies to seize control of communication platforms (media, social media) and corrupt government institutions (DHS, DOJ, military promotions) to ensure checks and balances remain effective.
**Address Structural Disadvantages:** Develop long-term strategies to overcome political structural disadvantages, particularly for Democrats in the Senate, by identifying and nurturing candidates who can win in challenging environments.
Notable Moments
Trump's 'mission accomplished' declaration for Venezuela within 12 hours of the operation, contrasting sharply with Bush's six-week delay after the Iraq invasion.
This highlights an extreme level of impulsiveness and bravado, signifying a dangerous lack of strategic planning and an overestimation of American power in foreign interventions.
Trump's explicit connection of the Venezuela intervention to deploying the National Guard in American cities.
This chilling parallel reveals a consistent authoritarian mindset that blurs the lines between foreign and domestic power, indicating a willingness to use military force domestically for political control.
Quotes
"Donald Trump and Pete Hegsath and this administration are to be trusted in no way uh for having a plan about what we're going to do. Nor can we trust them to do things constitutionally."
"Trump can can sort of be at his best when he gets to hide behind the absolute professionalism and uh quality of the United States military, right? their ability to go in, get a job done, and get out. And so you think like, well, there's a way for this to be maybe a net positive, but I don't know because we don't have any information about what American foreign policy is."
"We're running the country and we have literally no ability to do So, I mean, literally, we have no troops there. What I don't even know what he thinks he's talking about about running."
"Trump is explicitly saying this is a war we want the oil back and or they're talking about him being a narot terrorist nobody's talking about democracy."
"The easy part is taking out the dictator. The hard part is what comes next and they do not seem well equipped to do it nor do they seem like they have a plan."
"The most one of the most chilling things that was an aside in his comment is when he lapsed into a thing about how the National Guard in American cities... how connected in his head it was to basically go into American cities and do whatever he wants and how that in his mind was connected to just going into Venezuela and doing whatever he wants."
"If Trump's overall presidency is viewed as a success, we're in super deep trouble in 28. If Trump's overall... presidency is viewed as just a real failure... we're in good shape in 28."
"I need Democrats to have an offense mentality that isn't just reacting to Trump. And this is going to take a change in mentality that right now we have a defensive mentality. We have a an analysis mentality as opposed to I want to build things. I want to get in a game. We got to go after people."
"No war for oil is a fine slogan for me now. It's a correct slogan. It is for oil. They're fighting it for Trump said it's for the sake of oil. And you know what? We shouldn't go to war for the sake of oil."
Q&A
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