Prof. Ted Postol: The U.S.–Iran War About to Break Out - Who Has the Edge?
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Summary
Takeaways
- ❖Israel's decision to target Iranian urban areas has fundamentally altered the rules of engagement, legitimizing Iranian retaliation against Israeli cities.
- ❖Iran is on track to achieve 500-meter accuracy with its ballistic missiles within five years, potentially with Russian or Chinese assistance, enabling widespread urban destruction in Israel.
- ❖Existing missile defense systems, such as the Patriot, are ineffective against ballistic missile threats, a reality obscured by deliberate misinformation from defense contractors and political leaders.
- ❖Western political and military leadership, including NATO and US officials, are criticized for promoting 'lies' and 'fraud' regarding conflicts like Ukraine, leading to catastrophic outcomes.
Insights
1Israel's Strategic Blunder Justifies Iranian Urban Attacks
Professor Postol asserts that Israel's recent attacks targeting urban installations in Iran, aimed at destabilizing the Iranian government, represent an 'extraordinary strategic blunder.' This action, he argues, has now 'justified' Iran in retaliating by focusing its ballistic missile attacks on Israeli cities, a departure from Iran's previous focus on military installations.
Prior to the most recent situation, Iranians focused attacks on Israeli military installations. The recent Israeli attack on urban installations in Tehran, intended to 'take off the head of the Iranian government,' now makes it 'justifiable' for Iran to target Israeli cities in retaliation.
2Iran's Ballistic Missile Threat to Israeli Cities is Rapidly Escalating
Iran's capacity to inflict catastrophic damage on Israeli urban areas is projected to grow significantly within five years. This escalation is driven by an increase in the number of Iranian ballistic missiles and a critical improvement in their accuracy, potentially reaching 500 meters with help from Russia or China. This level of precision, combined with large warheads, can effectively 'shut down' major Israeli cities like Tel Aviv, Haifa, and Beer Sheva.
As Iran's ballistic missile force grows in numbers and accuracy (from ~1000m to 500m), it will become 'more and more possible for Iran to cause catastrophic disruptions of Israeli urban areas' (). Russia is 'talking about helping the Iranians improve their accuracy technology' (), and China could also assist (). Simulations show 100 missiles with 500m accuracy causing 'twice the density of impacts' in downtown Tel Aviv compared to 1000m accuracy (), and 500 missiles with 500m accuracy could render Tel Aviv 'no longer a functioning city' ().
3Western Missile Defense Systems are Ineffective and Misrepresented
Professor Postol contends that Western missile defense systems, specifically the Patriot, are 'worthless' against ballistic missiles, despite claims by manufacturers like Raytheon and political leaders. He alleges that the public is being fed 'layers upon layers of fraud' regarding their effectiveness, citing historical examples and current observations in conflicts like Ukraine.
A 1991 'spectacular photograph' of a Patriot intercept was a 'total lie by Raytheon' (, ). Patriot systems are 'very effective' against aircraft but 'worthless' as ballistic missile defense (, ). This 'fraud' is foisted on American taxpayers, the Israeli public, and the Ukrainian population (). In Ukraine, Patriot defenses have 'never been effective at all' ().
4High-Level Western Leaders Often Lack Critical Technical Understanding
Postol highlights a concerning trend where senior political and military decision-makers in the US and NATO lack fundamental technical knowledge about the weapons systems and strategies they endorse. This ignorance, he argues, leads to misinformed decisions and perpetuates a cycle of 'fraud' and 'lies' in geopolitical policy.
The Chief of Naval Operations, a top US military leader, was unaware that the X-ray laser, a key component of the Strategic Defense Initiative, required the detonation of a nuclear weapon in outer space (). A 'distinguished scholar' and former deputy to NATO's Secretary General was unaware that F-35s being bought by the US Air Force lacked radars due to Chinese gallium supply cutoffs ().
Quotes
"This strategic blunder is basically putting the Iranians in a position where they are justified in attacking Israeli cities."
"As Iran's ability increases with its ballistic missiles, it is going to become more and more possible for Iran to cause catastrophic disruptions of Israeli urban areas. I mean catastrophic."
"The time the clock is not on Israel's side. And I think it's this strategic blunder among many strategic blunders that now has Israel in a very bad situation that is can only get worse in time."
"This was consciously a fraudulent photo. Okay. So, this is what the Israelis tell their own people. Uh this is what uh the American contractors tell the Saudis and the Poles and the uh Ukrainians and the uh whoever else is foolish enough to spend money on their system for anti-missile against aircraft. It's a very effective system. I want to be clear and you don't want to fly against patriots if you're in an airplane. But um but as a ballistic missile defense, it's worthless."
"The society has definitely decayed into a fascist society. There's no question about it. You don't you only need a significant percentage of the people to agree with the murder for the society to be basically fascist."
"NATO is a danger to peace in Europe. And when I mean Europe, Western Europe and Eastern Europe, it has a leadership that is inventing threats that don't exist."
Q&A
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