Saudis, UAE Break Into Regional HOT WAR

The long-standing coalition between Saudi Arabia and the UAE against the Houthis in Yemen has dissolved into direct rivalry. Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) has initiated aggressive actions, including bombing a UAE arms shipment to its proxy forces in Yemen, which led to the rapid collapse of the UAE-backed Southern Transition Council (STC) forces. This marks a significant escalation from indirect competition to overt military engagement.

Saudi air strikes quickly routed STC forces after the UAE's command structure and air cover were withdrawn. A fighter noted, 'We went to Hud Ramat and Almara with a large force and high-end equipment and returned on buses.' The host states that Saudi Arabia 'bombed a shipment of arms that were coming in to the UAE's fighters.'

MBS is employing a pattern of coercive tactics against rivals and perceived threats. After dismantling UAE's proxy forces in Yemen, MBS invited over 50 leaders of the Southern Transition Council (STC) to Riyadh for talks, where they are now believed to be held incommunicado. This mirrors previous incidents where MBS detained wealthy Saudis, orchestrated the murder of Jamal Khashoggi, and kidnapped the Lebanese Prime Minister, demonstrating a willingness to use extreme measures to consolidate power and influence.

The head of the STC, Al-Zuba, avoided the invitation, fleeing by boat to Africa, while '50 plus of the other STC leaders went to Riad' and are 'believed to be being held incommunicado.' This is compared to MBS's previous actions like the Ritz Carlton detentions, Khashoggi's murder, and the kidnapping of the Lebanese prime minister.

The UAE is pursuing a 'chaos strategy' to expand its influence, particularly over strategic maritime routes and commodity flows. This involves empowering proxy groups and separatists in countries like Yemen, Somaliland, Libya, and Sudan to weaken central governments. The objective is to control key ports along the Gulf of Aden and the Red Sea, and access valuable resources like Sudan's gold, thereby encircling Saudi Arabia and diminishing the value of its oil exports.

The host states, 'the MBZ strategy is a chaos strategy. It is to ferment chaos in the region rather than the preference of MBS, which is the exact opposite.' The UAE controls parts of southern Yemen, supports separatists in Somaliland, and its factions control much of Libya. In Sudan, the UAE backs the RSF, which controls a 'huge proportion of the world's gold.'

The conflict in Sudan is a direct proxy battle between Saudi/Egypt-backed Sudanese Armed Forces and UAE-backed Rapid Support Forces (RSF). The UAE has supplied the RSF with advanced technology, enabling them to gain ground and commit mass atrocities. The fall of El Fasher resulted in an estimated 150,000 deaths, and there are fears of an even larger massacre in El Obeid, where up to a million people are at risk from RSF forces.

The UAE is the 'main backer of what's called the RSF,' funneling 'extraordinarily advanced technology' to them. The fall of El Fasher led to '150,000 of them remain unaccounted for and are presumed to be dead.' The city of El Obeid, with up to a million people, is 'surrounded on three sides by the RSF,' raising fears of 'another massacre of hundreds of thousands of people.'