Larry Johnson & Col. Wilkerson: US–Iran Ground Conflict Could DEVASTATE Israel & UAE
Quick Read
Summary
Takeaways
- ❖The Strait of Hormuz closure is causing a global recession, impacting oil, LNG, fertilizer, and helium supplies, with potential for global famine.
- ❖US military plans for a ground invasion of Iranian islands or opening the Strait are strategically flawed and underestimate Iran's defensive capabilities.
- ❖Israel's military is struggling against Hamas and Hezbollah, with reports of significant tank losses and declining morale, making an additional conflict with Iran unsustainable without massive US support.
- ❖Simulations, including Millennium Challenge 2002, consistently show US forces losing in scenarios involving closing the Strait of Hormuz.
- ❖Iran's potential development of nuclear weapons, driven by perceived threats and the collapse of international law, would fundamentally alter regional power dynamics.
- ❖Gulf allies like the UAE and Saudi Arabia possess minimal military capability and face severe economic collapse if the conflict escalates further.
Insights
1Global Economic Catastrophe from Strait of Hormuz Closure
Larry Johnson asserts that the world is already in a recession, potentially heading for a depression, due to the disruption of the Strait of Hormuz. This closure has drastically increased Iran's oil revenue and severely impacted global supplies of liquid natural gas (affecting Asia), fertilizer (threatening global food shortages in 6-8 months), and helium (critical for computer chip production).
Iran's oil sales increased from 1.1 million barrels at $47 to 1.5 million at $97; several Asian countries declared states of emergency due to LNG shortages; over a third of global fertilizer from the Persian Gulf is gone; helium, essential for computer chips, is scarce.
2US Ground Invasion Plans are 'Suicide Missions' and Strategically Flawed
Larry Johnson details significant US special operations troop movements (75th Rangers, SEAL Team Six, Delta Force) to the Persian Gulf, indicating a planned ground operation, possibly targeting underground missile cities on islands like Qeshm. However, he and Colonel Wilkerson argue these missions are 'suicide missions' based on foolish assumptions that Iran lacks defenses. They emphasize that seizing islands will not open the Strait of Hormuz, as Iran can still deploy mines, underwater drones, submarines, and missiles.
C17 flights from Lewis McCord, Hunter Army Airfield, Oceana Naval Station, Pope Army Airfield, Fort Campbell (); Delta Force members reportedly calling it a 'suicide mission' (); Iran's stated intent to flood the Gulf with mines (); French general's simulation results showing US Navy destruction (); Millennium Challenge 2002 simulation showing US loss ().
3Israel's Military Overextension and Dependence on US Aid
Larry Johnson and Colonel Wilkerson contend that Israel's military is failing to defeat Hamas in Gaza and suffering severe losses against Hezbollah in Lebanon, including 19-20 Merkava tanks in two weeks. They highlight Israel's complete dependence on US support for sustained combat operations and argue that an additional conflict with Iran would be unsustainable, potentially leading to Israel's collapse. Netanyahu's call for an additional 400,000 reserves is questioned given previous recruitment failures and population demographics.
Israel's failure to defeat Hamas in 2.5 years (); Hezbollah 'blowing the hell out of the Israelis' (); 19-20 Merkava tanks reportedly knocked out (); Netanyahu's call for 400,000 more reserves ().
4Collapse of International Order and Iran's Nuclear Imperative
Larry Johnson argues that the US rejection of international law, particularly under the Donald Trump administration, has led to the collapse of the post-WWII international order (Bretton Woods, UN, NPT). This environment, coupled with perceived threats from nuclear powers attacking non-nuclear states, may compel Iran to develop nuclear weapons as its only absolute defense. Colonel Wilkerson adds that Ted Postol believes Iran has underground capabilities to build and deploy a nuclear weapon with a hypersonic missile.
US administration's rejection of international law (); 'two nuclear powers attacked a country that didn't have nuclear weapons' (); Ted Postol's assessment of Iran's underground nuclear weapon capability (); IAEA head Gross's comment about nuclear war as the only solution ().
Bottom Line
The UAE and other Gulf states, despite pushing for US intervention against Iran, possess 'zero military capability' and are facing severe economic crises due to the Strait's closure.
Their calls for escalation are based on a fantasy, and their economies (25% oil export, 20% trade, financial sector, construction) are imploding, making them highly vulnerable targets for Iranian retaliation.
For regional powers like Russia and China to fill the power vacuum and reshape alliances, potentially forcing the US out of the Persian Gulf and compelling Gulf states to align with a new security architecture.
President Donald Trump's 'gift' from Iranians of 10 oil tankers sailing through the Strait of Hormuz was actually Iran selling oil at double the price, directly funding its war efforts.
This highlights a profound misunderstanding or misrepresentation of the economic realities and Iran's strategic gains, undermining the US's stated objectives.
For adversaries to exploit US political rhetoric and economic ignorance for their own strategic and financial benefit.
Key Concepts
Obsolete Military Doctrine vs. Modern Asymmetric Warfare
The podcast argues that traditional military models, relying on large naval fleets and ground invasions, are no longer effective against adversaries employing advanced, low-cost technologies like drones, mines, and missiles. This creates a mismatch where conventional power projection is easily neutralized, as demonstrated by the Strait of Hormuz scenario and the vulnerability of aircraft carriers.
Lessons
- Re-evaluate global supply chain resilience, particularly for critical resources like energy, food, and technology components, given the ongoing disruptions in the Persian Gulf.
- Investors and businesses should model scenarios for a prolonged global recession or depression, considering the cascading effects of energy and fertilizer shortages.
- Defense strategists must urgently re-assess the effectiveness of traditional naval and ground invasion doctrines against modern asymmetric threats like drones, mines, and advanced missiles.
- Policymakers should recognize the potential for a new, multipolar international order and the implications of the erosion of international law and non-proliferation treaties.
Notable Moments
General Keane's optimistic assessment of the US-Israel campaign and timeline for victory is presented.
This sets up the core argument of the podcast, which is a direct refutation of Keane's 'delusional' perspective, highlighting the disconnect between official narratives and ground realities.
Colonel Wilkerson recounts the Millennium Challenge 2002 simulation, where US forces lost against a scenario involving closing the Strait of Hormuz, and subsequent simulations showing similar outcomes.
This provides historical evidence that military planners have long understood the difficulty of opening the Strait, underscoring the current strategic miscalculations.
Quotes
"You never ask a person in a war or even a simulation if they're accomplishing their objectives because they will tell you yes of course and they will detail all the objectives that they have accomplished. You ask them, are you accomplishing your mission? And the mission has never been expressed."
"Keane is delusional. I mean, he lives in a fantasy world."
"What we're seeing is a situation where targetry never makes up for a lack of strategy."
"The United States has a history of just flatout ignorance and and interacting with this with this region because remember you know when we took out Saddam Hussein and that ended up empowering Iran."
"We're operating on a military model that is no longer relevant to the technology that exists."
Q&A
Recent Questions
Related Episodes
BREAKING: U.S. Weighs INVADING Iran Oil Island; Gulf Energy Crisis Grows | TBN Israel
"As the US and Israel systematically dismantle Iran's military and leadership, the conflict escalates into an energy war, with the US considering ground invasion of Iran's critical Karag oil island to secure global oil routes."
BREAKING: Israel BOMBS Major Iran Gas Site; Top Mullah ELIMINATED; Iran Vows VENGEACE | TBN Israel
"Israel and the United States have escalated their 'Roaring Lion War' against Iran, striking its largest gas facilities, eliminating key intelligence and military figures, and disrupting missile production, while Iran threatens a broader energy war in the Gulf."
Col. Jacques Baud: What a US Ground Invasion of Iran Would REALLY Look Like
"Colonel Jacques Baud dissects the strategic futility of a US ground invasion of Iran, arguing that current troop levels are insufficient and such an action would backfire, exposing US allies and potentially leading to Iran's nuclearization."
Bibi DEMANDS Ground Troops As Marines Rushed to Iran
"Benjamin Netanyahu is pushing for US ground troops in Iran, framing air strikes as insufficient, while the US rushes Marines to the region and struggles to secure the Strait of Hormuz against surprisingly capable Iranian defenses."