Trump’s Support is About to Crater | The Next Level
Quick Read
Summary
Takeaways
- ❖The Trump administration misjudged the Iran situation, lacking a coherent plan and rationalization for its actions.
- ❖Rising gas and diesel prices, alongside a struggling stock market (propped up by AI/tech), indicate significant economic damage from the Iran conflict.
- ❖Iran has demonstrated a 'proof of concept' for closing the Strait of Hormuz using drones, increasing its strategic position.
- ❖Negotiating with Iran is complicated by the US having previously used negotiations as an intelligence-gathering operation to target their leadership.
- ❖Trump's base might eventually abandon him as economic pain from the conflict (e.g., higher gas prices) becomes unbearable, despite past loyalty.
- ❖Conservative 'MAGA' think tanks are seen as ideologically hollow, making them susceptible to influence from various industries willing to pay for white papers and policy positions.
- ❖Former immigration official Greg Bavino advocated for deporting 100 million people, a figure far exceeding the estimated undocumented population.
Insights
1Trump's Iran Strategy: A Self-Inflicted Economic Wound
The hosts argue that the Trump administration's approach to Iran is 'stupider than imagined,' lacking clear objectives and leading to significant economic damage. They point to astronomically higher gas/diesel prices and a lower stock market as direct consequences, asserting that the administration wildly misjudged the situation and is still searching for a coherent plan.
Samstein states, 'the administration wildly misjudged what would happen... still searching for some sort of coherent plan.' Tim Miller adds, 'It's the stupidest thing that I've ever seen.' (, )
2Iran's Strategic Position Strengthened by Conflict
The conflict has served as a 'proof of concept' for Iran's ability to disrupt global oil trade by threatening the Strait of Hormuz with drone capabilities. This demonstration, according to the hosts, enhances Iran's strategic leverage, as private tankers are unlikely to risk passage even with US military presence.
JVL notes, 'This has been a proof of concept for Iranian strategic defense for 47 years... now they can.' Tim Miller highlights the Shahed drone's 2,000 km range, making securing the Strait from drone attacks impossible. (, )
3Challenges for Iran Negotiations Post-Leadership Strikes
The hosts explain that Trump's previous use of negotiations as an intelligence-gathering operation, culminating in the killing of Iranian leadership, has severely complicated any future diplomatic efforts. Iran's remaining leaders are now wary of engaging in good-faith talks, making a negotiated settlement logistically difficult and requiring a more lenient deal than previous administrations offered.
JVL states, 'You've shown the Iranians that you will use negotiations as ways to kill their leadership.' Samstein adds, 'It becomes kind of hard to have like just logistically it becomes hard to have these conversations.' (, )
4MAGA Think Tanks: Ideological Void and Financial Influence
The discussion characterizes new 'MAGA think tanks' as lacking a coherent ideology, making them highly susceptible to financial influence from various industries (crypto, AI, natural gas, wind). Unlike traditional think tanks with established policy stances, these new entities offer a 'blank slate' for donors to push their agendas through white papers and policy positions.
JVL describes them as trying to 'build an ideological framework around this' even though 'Trumpism is whatever Trump says it is.' Tim Miller explains, 'because MAGA has like say no core is wrong... it leaves this huge opening for groups like this to be bought off.' (, )
Bottom Line
Oil prices are currently 'underpriced' because markets are hedging on Trump's historical ability to 'wiggle out' of crises, failing to fully account for the ongoing economic disruption caused by the Iran conflict.
This suggests a potential for further significant increases in energy costs if the market's confidence in Trump's crisis management proves unfounded, leading to greater economic pain for consumers.
Investors could consider positions that anticipate a more prolonged and impactful energy market disruption than currently priced in, if they believe Trump's 'wiggle room' is diminishing.
Trump's actions, particularly regarding the Iran conflict and perceived corruption, are causing his approval ratings to dip to unprecedented lows, even compared to the COVID-19 pandemic and associated crises.
This indicates that direct economic pain and clear responsibility for a conflict might be a more potent factor in eroding his base than previous crises, which he could more easily blame on external forces or 'libs.'
Political strategists should closely monitor the correlation between direct economic impacts and voter sentiment, especially among demographics previously loyal to Trump, as this could signal a shift in political dynamics.
Project 2025, despite its stated goals, was remarkably successful as a 'wrecking ball enterprise' in dismantling federal bureaucracy, cutting jobs, and reversing regulations.
This highlights a significant vulnerability in the administrative state, demonstrating how a focused effort can cause substantial structural damage to government agencies and regulatory frameworks, regardless of long-term sustainability.
Advocacy groups and policymakers concerned with government stability and regulatory protection need to develop more robust, long-term strategies to counter such 'wrecking ball' approaches, beyond simply reversing policies in subsequent administrations.
Lessons
- Monitor global energy markets and local gas prices closely, as the hosts suggest current prices may not fully reflect the ongoing geopolitical risks and could rise further.
- Critically evaluate policy proposals and 'white papers' from ideologically aligned think tanks, recognizing that financial incentives from various industries may heavily influence their positions.
- Understand the complex and often counterproductive dynamics of international negotiations, particularly when trust has been eroded by past actions, to better interpret diplomatic efforts.
Notable Moments
Discussion of the 82nd Airborne Division commander heading overseas, indicating potential escalation in the Middle East.
This deployment signals a serious military posture, creating uncertainty about the US's intentions and the potential for further military action in the region.
Trump's quote about Iran giving the US a 'gift' related to oil and gas, implying a secret deal.
This statement, made while the conflict escalates, is framed by the hosts as Trump attempting to declare a 'deal' for his base, despite no clear evidence of Iranian engagement, highlighting his tendency to control narratives.
Joe Kent's conspiratorial comments about the Charlie Kirk murder trial, suggesting foreign involvement and potentially jeopardizing the federal case.
This demonstrates how high-profile political figures can spread unsubstantiated theories that undermine legal processes and contribute to a climate of distrust and conspiracy.
Former ICE official Greg Bavino's plan to deport 100 million people, a figure five times the estimated undocumented population.
This reveals the extreme and unrealistic nature of some immigration proposals from former officials, highlighting a distorted worldview that could inform future policy if such figures regain power.
Quotes
"The administration wildly misjudged what would happen... still searching for some sort of coherent plan and rationalization for what they're doing. And and I feel like that itself is a huge indictment."
"This has been a proof of concept for Iranian strategic defense for 47 years... now they can."
"You've shown the Iranians that you will use negotiations as ways to kill their leadership."
"Because MAGA has like say no core is wrong but because there isn't really a co coherent policy worldview around MAGA... it leaves this huge opening for groups like this to be bought off."
"100 million people is a third of the country. We believe there might be as many as 20 million undocumented people in America. He would like to deport five. He had a plan to deport 5x."
Q&A
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