Bob Kagan: We’re About to Find Out What Real Failure Looks Like | Bulwark Podcast

Bob Kagan asserts that the US effectively lost the war with Iran after March 18th. Trump's administration has been trying to delay this reality, while Iran has made no concessions. The proposed 'deal' is a mechanism for Iran to extract billions in unfrozen assets and gain control over the Strait of Hormuz, which will allow them to dictate terms to global shipping and effectively nullify any future sanctions.

Kagan states, 'We effectively lost the war after March 18th. Trump has done nothing since March 18th... Iran has not made a single concession on any point.' He adds that Iran is 'shaking Trump down for money' in return for 'opening the straight' under Iranian control, which will be used as leverage against all nations.

The shift towards an 'America First' foreign policy under Trump is leading to a broad disengagement from global commitments. This includes accelerating troop withdrawals from Europe, creating disarray in Asian alliances, and potentially abandoning Taiwan. This vacuum is being filled by powers like Russia, which sees a 'once-in-a-lifetime opportunity' to make strategic gains in Europe, and China, which is now regarded as an 'equal partner' by the US, despite gaining concessions on Taiwan.

Kagan notes, 'This is the beginning of a general turn to real America first foreign policy. I think the Iran expedition is probably the last thing that Trump does outside the hemisphere.' He mentions 'accelerating their withdrawal of troops from Europe' and that 'Asian alliances are in complete disarray.'

Israel, for whom the US-Iran conflict was largely fought, is now the primary victim of Trump's disengagement, being excluded from negotiations and facing a newly empowered Iran. The Abraham Accords, once touted as a success, are now 'dead' as Israel becomes a pariah in the region. Gulf States, realizing the US cannot protect them and has depleted its missile defense stocks, are forced to cut deals with Iran, further solidifying Iran's regional dominance.

Kagan states, 'We fought this war, the United States fought this war for Israel, everybody can see that... Israel is going to pay the biggest price by far.' He also notes that the Abraham Accords 'far from expanding, are now dead.'

With Iran gaining control over the Strait of Hormuz, the global sanctions regime against Iran will collapse. Countries dependent on energy from the Persian Gulf, such as Japan and Korea, will be compelled to cut deals directly with Iran to secure access, bypassing any US-led sanctions. Iran will simply deny passage to vessels from nations that impose sanctions.

Kagan explains, 'The notion... that there's going to be a sanctions regime on Iran still. No, there isn't. Because the Iranians are not going to let anybody with a vessel who's putting sanctions on them with a vessel get the get their vessel through the straight. That it's as simple as that.'