Mohammad Marandi: Locked and Loaded’: US and Iran Trade Warnings - Venezuela Enters the Picture

Professor Marandi argues that while the US may see the 'kidnapping' of Venezuelan President Maduro as a tactical victory, it is an irrational move with significant long-term costs. He highlights that Maduro's popularity has increased, and the Venezuelan state institutions remain intact. The intervention is unlikely to be economically beneficial, as Venezuelan oil production is insufficient and of the wrong type to offset a major energy crisis, and any ground intervention would be extremely costly, similar to Iraq and Afghanistan.

Marandi states, 'Trump having created this armada he has put himself in a position where he would have no option but to escalate and escalate he did.' He also notes, 'President Maduro today is more popular than he has ever been before... because of what happened to him but also the way in which he conducted himself when arrested.' Regarding oil, he explains, 'Venezuela exports little very little oil relatively speaking... it's very very heavy oil... Venezuelan oil cannot be used in refineries that use Iranian oil.'

Marandi posits that the US exercises more caution regarding destabilization in Latin America compared to the Middle East. This difference stems from the direct impact of refugee flows: Latin American instability sends refugees north to the US, whereas Middle Eastern instability primarily affects Europe, which the US under Trump cares less about. This self-interest drives a more cautious approach in its immediate neighborhood.

Marandi states, 'the United States doesn't care if there's instability in our region [Middle East]... The refugee flow will go to Europe, not the United States.' In contrast, for Latin America, 'the Americans would be afraid of the Balkanization of Latin America... Because if that happens, then where do the refugees go? They go north. They go to the United States.'

China views the US's actions in Venezuela as a profound insult, especially given that a Chinese delegation had just met President Maduro hours before his 'kidnapping.' This event reinforces China's perception of the US as a rising threat seeking global energy control. Marandi suggests China may be emboldened to use similar coercive tactics, such as a blockade on Taiwan, arguing it would be highly effective and justifiable given the US precedent.

Marandi highlights, 'the Chinese are very angry about what happened in Venezuela, especially since a Chinese delegation met President Maduro and hours later the Americans kidnapped him. That's that's a huge insult.' He adds, 'if China wanted to increase pressure on Taiwan, they have the logic because they can say, well, the Americans did it. We have every right to do the same.'

Unlike Venezuela, Iran possesses robust offensive and defensive military capabilities, particularly in missile technology, which proved decisive in past confrontations. Iran's leadership operates under the assumption that war is inevitable and is aggressively preparing to deter or win any conflict, viewing this preparedness as the best way to prevent war.

Marandi states, 'Iran is infinitely more powerful as we saw during the 12-day war.' He emphasizes, 'Iran's offensive capabilities, its its missile capabilities in particular that left the United States and the Israeli regime in trouble and they sought a ceasefire.' He notes, 'The Iranians are are assuming that there will be war... You prepare for war so that there won't be war.'