Off The Record Podcast
Off The Record Podcast
May 13, 2026

LIVE: Kuwait Launch Strike On IRGC In Iran - Islamic Republic Vow Revenge

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Quick Read

Kuwait publicly strikes Iranian IRGC targets and arrests personnel, escalating regional tensions while the US pressures China over its support for Iran.
Kuwait's public attack on IRGC navy and ports, with arrests, marks a significant escalation.
US intelligence releases on China's aid to Iran coincide with Trump's visit to Beijing, aiming to pressure China.
A US-led naval blockade continues to suffocate Iran's economy and resources.

Summary

Kuwait has openly attacked Iran's IRGC navy and ports, arresting personnel, following earlier covert strikes by Saudi Arabia and the UAE. Iran has vowed revenge. Concurrently, President Trump is in Beijing, using recently declassified US intelligence on China's support for Iran (satellite data, potential weapon sales) to pressure President Xi. The US has also maintained a naval blockade on Iranian ports, redirecting and disabling vessels. A secret visit by Israeli PM Netanyahu to the UAE, later denied by the UAE but supported by flight data, further complicates regional alliances, drawing threats from Iran.
The escalating direct military actions by Gulf states against Iran, coupled with concerted US diplomatic and economic pressure, signal a significant shift in regional dynamics. China's apparent willingness to publicly distance itself from Iran on issues like Strait of Hormuz tolls indicates a weakening of Iran's international support, potentially leading to further isolation or internal collapse.

Takeaways

  • Kuwait publicly attacked IRGC naval targets and Iranian ports, arresting personnel.
  • Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Arachi vowed revenge for Kuwait's actions.
  • Saudi Arabia and UAE previously conducted covert strikes against IRGC proxies in Iraq and Iran.
  • President Trump is visiting China, leveraging US intelligence on Chinese support for Iran to exert pressure.
  • US Central Command maintains a naval blockade on Iranian ports, redirecting and disabling vessels.
  • A secret visit by Israeli PM Netanyahu to the UAE was reported by Israel and denied by the UAE, drawing threats from Iran.
  • The US and China verbally agreed that no country should charge shipping tolls in the Strait of Hormuz, a public betrayal of Iran by China.

Insights

1Kuwait's Public Aggression Against Iran

Kuwait launched direct attacks on IRGC naval forces in the Persian Gulf and Iranian southern ports, arresting IRGC personnel. This marks a public escalation following earlier covert operations by Saudi Arabia and the UAE.

the Kuwaitis have launched an attack on the IRGC in Iran... They have also arrested a number of IRGC personnel from these little tiny boats. Kuwait has now launched an attack on the IRGC navy in the Persian Gulf and also the Iranian ports in the south of the country.

2Iran's Vow for Retaliation

Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Arachi condemned Kuwait's actions as illegal and vowed revenge, demanding the immediate release of detained personnel. The IRGC headquarters also stated preparations for retaliation.

The Abbos Ara has now vowed to take revenge. Abbas Arachi... has said in a clear attempt to sew discord, Kuwait has unlawfully attacked an Iranian boat and detained four of our citizens... We demand immediate release of our nationals and reserve the right to respond. the IRGC headquarters and Ahmed Vahidi... have now also said that they are preparing a retaliation unless the Kuwaitis release the Islamic terrorists.

3US Pressure on China Regarding Iran

President Trump's visit to Beijing is accompanied by strategic leaks of US intelligence detailing China's support for Iran, including discussions of weapon sales, satellite intelligence, and high-tech tools for drones and missiles. This is intended to pressure China to align against Iran.

the United States intelligence with the help of the CIA decided to release a lot of information as President Trump arrived in China... Chinese companies with links to the CCP discussed secretly selling weapons to Iran through third countries... China considered sending portable anti-aircraft missiles... helping the regime in Iran with intelligence satellite support and high-tech tools in order to help with drones and missiles. the Chinese satellites were exposing the details and locations of the US troops in the Middle East to help the RGC launch missiles and drones at them.

4US-China Agreement on Strait of Hormuz Tolls

The US and China verbally agreed that no country should charge shipping tolls in the Strait of Hormuz, directly contradicting Iran's stated intention to implement a toll system. This is framed as a public betrayal of Iran by China, driven by China's economic interests.

the US and China have now agreed that no country should charge shipping tolls in their straight of hormones. The State Department has confirmed that the issue has been discussed between Marco Rubio and Wang Yi... The official line from the Islamic Republic is... We're going to charge commercial vessels and tankers... China have agreed with the Americans that that cannot happen.

5Secret Israeli-UAE Meeting and Iranian Reaction

Israeli PM Netanyahu reportedly made a secret visit to the UAE during 'Operation Roaring Lion,' leading to a 'historic breakthrough.' The UAE officially denied this, blaming media reports, but flight data supported the visit. Iran's foreign minister claimed prior knowledge and threatened those 'colluding with Israel.'

Prime Minister Netanyahu actually went to the UAE secretly during the war... official statement from the PM's office in Israel... Prime Minister Benjamin Netany secretly visited the United Arab Emirates where he met with UAE President Sheikh Muhammad bin Zed. The Emiratis released this statement denying this. two Israeli planes... landed in Ala in the UAE on the 26th of March. Arai is now saying Netanyahu has now publicly revealed what Iran's security services long ago conveyed to our leadership... Collusion with Israel in doing so is unforgivable. Those colluding with Israel to sow division will be held to account.

Bottom Line

The US is strategically using intelligence disclosures to isolate Iran and pressure its allies like China, creating diplomatic leverage that could reshape regional power dynamics without direct military intervention.

So What?

This approach demonstrates a sophisticated blend of intelligence operations and high-level diplomacy to achieve geopolitical objectives.

Impact

Other nations facing similar challenges with state sponsors of terrorism or rogue regimes could adopt a similar strategy of targeted intelligence leaks timed with diplomatic engagements to build international consensus and pressure.

The US-led blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is not just financially crippling Iran but also depleting its oil storage and access to resources, potentially leading to internal chaos and regime collapse without a ground invasion.

So What?

This suggests that economic warfare and strategic blockades can be highly effective tools for regime change or significant policy shifts, potentially preventing larger military conflicts.

Impact

Nations or alliances seeking to counter hostile states could explore and refine non-military pressure tactics, focusing on critical resource denial and economic strangulation, while monitoring for internal instability.

Lessons

  • Monitor the Strait of Hormuz for further escalations or changes in shipping policy, as US-China agreement challenges Iran's control.
  • Observe China's diplomatic and economic responses to US pressure regarding its support for Iran, as this indicates shifts in global alliances.
  • Track the internal stability of Iran, as the ongoing blockade and external pressures could lead to significant domestic unrest or regime changes.

Notable Moments

Kuwait's public attack on IRGC and arrest of personnel.

This represents a significant and public escalation of hostilities by a Gulf state against Iran, moving beyond covert operations and directly challenging Iranian influence.

US intelligence strategically leaking details of China's support for Iran during Trump's visit to Beijing.

This highlights a deliberate US strategy to use intelligence as a diplomatic tool to pressure major powers and isolate adversaries, showcasing the intersection of espionage and foreign policy.

The US and China verbally agreeing against shipping tolls in the Strait of Hormuz.

This agreement publicly undermines Iran's claims of control over the Strait and signals a potential shift in China's alignment, demonstrating the effectiveness of US diplomatic pressure.

Quotes

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"Kuwait has unlawfully attacked an Iranian boat and detained four of our citizens in the Persian Gulf. This is illegal. This illegal act took place near islands used by the US to attack Iran. We demand immediate release of our nationals and reserve the right to respond."

Abbas Arachi, Iranian Foreign Minister
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"nuclear proliferation is one of those challenges that people don't realize it's the biggest threat to America's national security and it's not obvious until it is because what happens if Iran gets a nuclear weapon then multiple Gulf Arab countries are going to want to get a nuclear weapon then multiple countries from there are going to want to get a nuclear weapon. The goal of preventing nuclear proliferation is probably the single most important thing that we can do to keep our people safe for the long term."

JD Vance
"

"Netanyahu has now publicly revealed what Iran's security services long ago conveyed to our leadership. Hatred of the great people of Iran is a foolish gamble. Collusion with Israel in doing so is unforgivable. Those colluding with Israel to sow division will be held to account."

Abbas Arachi, Iranian Foreign Minister

Q&A

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