What’s Next in Trump’s War on Venezuela?
Quick Read
Summary
Takeaways
- ❖Trump's assertion that Venezuela 'stole' US oil is historically false; nationalization occurred in 1975 with compensation.
- ❖Beyond oil, Venezuela holds significant global reserves of gold, rare earths, gas, and lithium, which are major US strategic interests.
- ❖Speculation suggests Nicolas Maduro's 'abduction' may have involved a back-channel deal, facilitating a power transition within Venezuela.
- ❖Marco Rubio's long-term objective is regime change in Cuba, using Venezuela as a means to achieve broader ideological control in Latin America.
Insights
1Trump's False Claims on Venezuelan Oil
Former President Trump falsely claimed that Venezuela unilaterally seized and sold 'American oil' and 'American assets,' costing billions. He asserted the US built Venezuela's oil industry and the socialist regime 'stole it.'
Trump stated, 'Venezuela unilaterally seized and sold American oil, American assets... We built Venezuela oil industry... and the socialist regime stole it from us.'
2Historical Context of Venezuelan Oil Nationalization
Venezuela's oil industry was nationalized in 1975, taking effect in 1976, under a social democratic government (Carlos Andres Perez), not Hugo Chavez. This was a fully compensated and negotiated process, not a 'theft.'
Miguel Tinker Salas explains, 'The nationalization was happened in 1975. It was a fully compensated nationalization... done under the government of Carlos Andres Perez a social democratic government not Ugo Chaveis.'
3Venezuela's Vast Mineral Riches Beyond Oil
Beyond oil, Venezuela possesses immense strategic resources, including gold, rare earths (like Coltan), natural gas, lithium, and coal. These minerals are a significant driver of US corporate and strategic interest in the country.
Miguel Tinker Salas states, 'Venezuela is rich in gold. It's rich in rare earths, rare minerals. It is rich in gas... It is rich in lithium... It has coal. It has other minerals as well.'
4Speculation of a Back-Channel Deal in Maduro's 'Abduction'
Professor Alejandro Velasco speculates that Nicolas Maduro's 'abduction' might have been part of a back-channel deal. Months prior, Maduro's inner circle was negotiating with the Trump administration on oil deals and investments, with Maduro's continued power being the missing piece. The swift consolidation of power by Delcy Rodriguez after the event suggests prior collusion.
Alejandro Velasco notes, 'Maduro was given up by the remaining government apparatus in a back channel deal... given how quickly the operation unfolded... and how quickly it seems that Delcy Rodriguez has been able to... consolidate power... you have to assume that there was some kind of collusion.'
5Marco Rubio's Cuba-Centric Geopolitical Strategy
Senator Marco Rubio's primary interest in the region is Cuba. He views Venezuela as an instrumental piece to achieve his long-standing goal of ousting the Cuban government, leveraging Venezuela's resources to gain Trump's support for an ideological project against leftist governments.
Alejandro Velasco states, 'Marco Rubio's primary interest in the region is not Venezuela... it's Cuba... He now sees an opening with Venezuela... if we can deliver resources from Venezuela... we can do something similar in Cuba.'
6US Overestimation of Imperial Power and Military Reluctance
The US may be overestimating its ability to manage multiple long-term military engagements across Latin America (Venezuela, Cuba, Colombia) while also contending with other global conflicts. The US military might push back against such extensive commitments, recognizing the 'pottery barn doctrine' (if you break it, you own it).
Miguel Tinker Salas argues, 'I think we're also overestimating US empire... they were unable to [land troops] because they know that they that would bog them down in a long-term war... I doubt that the US military is prepared for that kind of long-term engagement.'
Bottom Line
The US's 'gunboat diplomacy' in Latin America, reminiscent of the early 20th century, is an ideological project aimed at establishing a 'Trumpist vision' for the hemisphere, not solely about specific resources.
This suggests a broader, more systemic challenge to Latin American sovereignty, where economic leverage and military threats are tools for ideological realignment, potentially destabilizing the region for decades.
For regional powers, recognizing this ideological underpinning allows for more unified and strategic counter-responses, focusing on multilateral alliances and economic diversification to resist external pressures.
The US's dismissal of opposition figures like Maria Corina Machado, despite her pro-US stance, reveals that the primary objective is resource control and compliant leadership, not genuine democratic ideals.
This demonstrates the transactional nature of US foreign policy, where 'democracy' is a pretext, and local allies are expendable if they don't directly facilitate resource acquisition or strategic control.
Opposition movements in targeted nations should critically evaluate their alignment with external powers, understanding that their utility is often conditional and their democratic aspirations may be secondary to foreign interests.
Lessons
- Critically evaluate claims of 'stolen' resources or 'democratic' interventions by powerful nations, cross-referencing with historical facts and economic data to identify underlying motivations.
- Recognize that geopolitical actions, even those framed as singular events, often serve a broader, long-term ideological or resource-driven agenda, as seen with Marco Rubio's focus on Cuba through Venezuela.
- Understand that internal political shifts and 'back-channel deals' can play a significant role in regime changes, complicating the narrative of purely external intervention.
Quotes
"Venezuela's oil industry... has taken a hit in the last 15 years... I cannot imagine any American oil company going into Venezuela spending billions of dollars to build up an infrastructure without American boots on the ground or without very clear guarantees. And even if they did, the process would take close to a decade."
"The nationalization was happened in 1975. It was a fully compensated nationalization taking effect on January 1st 1976 and it was done under the government of Carlos Andres Perez a social democratic government not Ugo Chaveis."
"If of all the countries of Latin America, I only want one ally, that is Venezuela, because they're beautifully rich in oil and minerals. That has been the position of the US government since 1940 until the present."
"Marco Rubio's primary interest in the region is not Venezuela, it's not Colombia, it's not Mexico, it's Cuba... He now sees an opening with Venezuela."
"I think what we're seeing here is is a return to this gunboat diplomacy that had been the hallmark of the Teddy Roosevelt period in the early 19th 20th century."
"I think what they what Machalo overestimated was the degree to which Trump wanted democracy. He doesn't want democracy. He just wants oil, right?"
Q&A
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