Europe Is Planning for a Post-America World (w/ Fiona Hill) | The Bulwark Podcast

Fiona Hill asserts that Vladimir Putin, trained in the KGB as a recruiter, excels at manipulating individuals by exploiting their vulnerabilities. Trump's particular susceptibility to flattery makes him an easy target. Putin carefully avoids direct insults, instead subtly 'egging him on' in domestic political rants, as observed during the Helsinki lunch.

Putin has been trained for his whole career in the KGB… he's always looking for people's vulnerabilities. And Trump is particularly susceptible to flattery… He frequently insults him, but just in these kind of clever, sneaky kind of ways… and he's just always, you know, seemingly flattering him, nudging him, egging him on.

Russia's 2016 interference campaign was not solely aimed at ensuring Trump's victory but rather at sowing chaos, dividing the US, and discrediting American democratic institutions. This strategy succeeded 'beyond their wildest dreams' by exploiting existing American failings and internal divisions, proving that Russia thrives when conditions already favor their objectives.

Their ultimate goal… was just to kind of bring us down to size, just to sow chaos… and just to show everybody else that the US was no better than them or any other country… they're just taking advantage of, you know, our own failings.

During the Trump administration, a 'parallel universe' of informal operators and cronies conducted 'domestic political errands' alongside formal state affairs. This environment, characterized by backdoor deals, business transactions, and compromising information, allowed Putin, who thrives in such opaque systems, to flourish and achieve his objectives even more effectively than before.

There was… this whole parallel universe that was… alongside the… seeming formalization and formality of state affairs US to Russia in which there was just a whole cast of characters around President Trump and his entourage who were just doing something entirely different… that's the kind of environment that he loves to operate in.

Russian officials subtly hinted at a 'zone of influence' trade-off, where the US would cede influence in Ukraine in exchange for Russian non-interference in Venezuela. This was conveyed through 'heavy obvious hints' in discussions, articles, and meetings, designed to 'entice' the US. Trump later began making similar connections himself, bringing Greenland into the mix.

It was kind of… framed more in very heavy obvious hints… framing… discussions of Ukraine in the context of Venezuela… talking about their own interests in their own sphere… now we have Trump himself making all these kinds of connections.

Trump's desire to purchase Greenland stemmed from a discussion with Ron Lauder and was driven by personal prestige and a belief that adding Greenland would make the US 'the biggest country in the world.' This ambition ignored existing NATO security treaties, the fact that Greenland was not for sale, and the alienation it caused among Greenlanders and Danes.

It was Ambassador Bolton who's also spoken about it, John Bolton, who… was the person who Trump… basically said he wanted to buy Greenland… Trump's thinking is that the United States would be the biggest country in the world… he wants it for his own prestige and aggrandisement.

Mark Carney's speech at Davos highlighted a 'rupture,' not merely a transition, in global integration, as great powers weaponize economic ties. European nations, including close allies like Canada and Denmark, are now rationally building independent military and economic systems due to perceived US unreliability and the use of economic integration as a source of subordination.

Mark Carney's speech… was pretty noteworthy… 'We are in the midst of a rupture, not a transition.'… 'You cannot live within the lie of mutual benefit through integration when integration becomes the source of your subordination.'… they're going to make this change no matter what… we've demonstrated ourselves… to be too unreliable.

The perceived unreliability of the United States as a security guarantor could lead to increased nuclear proliferation. Countries that previously considered developing nuclear weapons, such as South Korea, Turkey, Japan, and Sweden, might revisit these options, and the idea of a collective European nuclear deterrent is gaining traction.

What we do have to worry about is nuclear proliferation because… we've had South Korea not just South Africa Turkey… Japan… Sweden… who've all thought about… getting nuclear weapons and as I said you've got all these countries now thinking about well, you know, maybe we have a European nuclear weapon.

Trump's approach to international diplomacy involved direct, often unprepared meetings with foreign leaders like Putin and Erdogan, frequently without US interpreters or advisors. This lack of coordination and proper note-taking led to unworkable agreements, confusion, and frustration among both allies and adversaries who sought follow-up that never materialized.

You should not go into a meeting with Vladimir Putin without someone taking notes… without your own interpreter, without any kind of preparation… Erdogan's got a whole fanks of people all around him taking careful note and wanting to have followup. And as I mentioned, you'd have the ambassador of Russia would come in with this long sheet of things that he wanted to follow up on. I'd say, well, I don't know… because Trump doesn't tell anybody… about his conversations.