“Burn it Down!” - Mossad in Iran, Trump Regime Change, Clinton Bribe & Nuke Deal | Trita Parsi • 382
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Summary
Takeaways
- ❖The 1953 US-backed coup against democratically elected Prime Minister Mosaddegh installed the Shah, fundamentally altering US-Iran relations and fueling future anti-American sentiment.
- ❖The MEK, a Marxist-Shia cult, collaborated with Saddam Hussein against Iran and later used extensive lobbying to be removed from the US terrorist list.
- ❖The Iran nuclear deal (JCPOA) included permanent, advanced IAEA inspections and significantly extended Iran's 'breakout time' for nuclear material.
- ❖Obama's shift to accept uranium enrichment on Iranian soil was a pragmatic decision to avoid war or Iran becoming a de facto nuclear power.
- ❖Israel's opposition to the JCPOA was driven by a 'fear of abandonment' by the US and a desire to maintain regional power balance, not solely nuclear concerns.
- ❖Saudi Arabia and other regional powers now view Iran as a necessary 'buffer' against an unhinged Israel, leading them to oppose US military intervention in Iran.
- ❖Iranian protests shifted from seeking reform to demanding revolution after years of economic hardship (exacerbated by US sanctions) and government repression.
- ❖Mossad's intelligence penetration in Iran is extensive, leveraging public anger against the regime to recruit agents for sabotage and drone attacks from within.
- ❖The US Biden administration lifted restrictions on Israel's use of American weapons, leading to high civilian casualties and a public rebuke from the Bush administration in 2004 for similar actions.
Insights
1UN Security Council Veto Reform Proposal: Veto Plus One
Trita Parsi and his colleagues proposed a reform to the UN Security Council's veto power. Under 'veto plus one,' any veto cast by a P5 member (US, UK, France, Russia, China) must be accompanied by at least one other negative vote from any other member. If a P5 member casts a lone veto, the matter is then referred to the General Assembly, where a two-thirds majority can vote to overturn the veto, causing the original resolution to pass. Parsi notes that in recent years, six US vetoes on Gaza and two Russian vetoes on Ukraine would likely have been overturned under this proposed system, addressing the current paralysis of the UN Security Council.
Parsi details the proposal and its potential impact on recent vetoes by the US and Russia.
2The MEK's Cult-like Evolution and US Delisting
The Mujahedin-e Khalq (MEK), initially a Marxist-Shia Muslim group that fought the Shah and killed Americans, later allied with Saddam Hussein during the Iran-Iraq War, massacring Shias and Kurds. After Saddam's fall, the MEK developed into a cult, forcing divorces, separating children from parents, and demanding absolute loyalty to its leader to prevent defections. Despite its history and cult practices, the MEK launched a massive, illegal lobbying campaign in Washington D.C. (2010-2011), effectively bribing politicians across the political spectrum, which ultimately led Hillary Clinton to remove them from the US terrorist list.
Parsi describes the MEK's bizarre origin, its actions under Saddam, its cult-like internal structure, and the lobbying efforts that led to its delisting.
3Obama's Strategic Shift and the Iran Nuclear Deal (JCPOA)
In early 2013, US intelligence assessed Iran's nuclear 'breakout time' (time to enrich enough uranium for one bomb) had shrunk to 6-8 weeks, despite strong US sanctions. This indicated sanctions were not deterring the program effectively. Facing a choice between war or accepting Iran as a de facto nuclear state, the Obama administration initiated secret negotiations in Oman. The US changed its long-standing position, accepting limited uranium enrichment on Iranian soil under strict IAEA verification in exchange for major program restrictions and sanctions relief. This pragmatic shift formed the basis of the JCPOA, which featured a robust, permanent inspection regime with advanced instrumentation and a mechanism to force IAEA access to undeclared sites.
Parsi details the shrinking breakout time, Obama's strategic dilemma, the secret Oman negotiations, and the technical aspects of the JCPOA's inspection regime.
4Israeli Opposition to the JCPOA: Beyond the Nuclear Issue
While publicly framed as a nuclear threat, a key driver of Israeli opposition to the JCPOA was a 'fear of abandonment' by the United States. A former head of Mossad reportedly stated that the issue was not about enrichment, but Israel's inability to allow the US to normalize relations with a country that defines Israel as an enemy. The concern was that a US-Iran deal would lead the US to disengage from the region, leaving Israel isolated and facing an un-deterred Iran. This perspective suggests that Israel's strategic goal was to prevent any US-Iran rapprochement that could alter the regional power balance in its disfavor.
Parsi recounts a 'track one and a half' meeting where an Israeli official stated the opposition was 'never about enrichment,' and explains the 'fear of abandonment' concept.
5Mossad's Deep Penetration and Psychological Warfare in Iran
Mossad has achieved unprecedented intelligence penetration within Iran, largely due to the Iranian government's severe repression and the widespread public anger. This discontent creates a large pool of individuals willing to consider aiding foreign entities. Mossad reportedly recruits agents through favors like medical treatment for family members or university placements abroad. These agents are then trained and covertly re-inserted into Iran, often smuggling in drone components for attacks launched from within the country. This deep infiltration is openly acknowledged by Israeli officials and even former US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, suggesting it's also part of a psychological warfare strategy to sow distrust and fear within Iran.
Parsi explains the conditions enabling Mossad's penetration, recruitment methods, the use of internal cells for drone attacks, and public statements by Israeli and US officials.
6Regional Powers Shift to View Iran as a Buffer Against Israel
The Biden administration's policy of lifting almost all restrictions on Israel's use of US weapons, even for actions that would violate US guidelines (e.g., high civilian casualties), has caused alarm among regional US allies like Saudi Arabia. This perceived 'unhinged' behavior by Israel, including bombing a US ally (Qatar) without its air defense systems activating, has led these countries to diversify their security. Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, and Turkey are forming new constellations, and critically, they now view Iran (despite historical animosity) as a necessary 'buffer' against Israeli regional hegemony. This shift means these states are actively working to prevent a US-Iran war, recognizing that a weakened Iran would strengthen Israel's position relative to them.
Parsi details the Biden administration's policy towards Israel, examples of Israeli actions (e.g., assassination of Nasrallah, bombing in Qatar), and the subsequent security diversification by Saudi Arabia, leading to a 'nuclear umbrella' pact with Pakistan and a new view of Iran as a buffer.
Bottom Line
The 1979 Iranian Revolution, unlike the American Revolution, was a 'disaster' that replaced one repressive system with another, ultimately leading to a worse social reality and prolonged political stagnation.
This challenges the romanticized view of revolutions, emphasizing their often disruptive and unpredictable outcomes, particularly when a clear post-revolutionary plan or leadership is absent.
Policymakers and activists should prioritize structured, non-violent transitions and robust post-change governance plans, rather than solely focusing on overthrowing existing regimes, to avoid creating worse conditions.
The US's decision to accept enrichment on Iranian soil during the JCPOA negotiations was a pragmatic move to avoid war, not a concession to Iran, driven by the realization that sanctions were failing to halt Iran's nuclear progress.
This highlights the limitations of sanctions as a sole policy tool and the necessity of diplomatic flexibility in high-stakes non-proliferation efforts.
Future diplomatic strategies with adversaries should be grounded in realistic assessments of their capabilities and motivations, rather than ideological purity, to achieve tangible security outcomes.
The rise of small, neutral states like Qatar and Oman as crucial mediators in complex global conflicts (e.g., US-Iran, Israel-Hamas) fills a vacuum left by traditional powers and the weakening UN.
These states offer unique trust and channels that superpowers often lack, enabling breakthroughs in otherwise intractable disputes.
Major powers should actively support and leverage these 'peacemaker' states, recognizing their indispensable role in de-escalation and conflict resolution, rather than viewing them as proxies or undermining their neutrality.
Key Concepts
Countries Are Stories
The idea that nations are essentially narratives people tell themselves, and revolutions represent a 'burn it all down' moment where old stories are destroyed, and new, often chaotic, ones emerge. This highlights the disruptive and unpredictable nature of societal upheaval.
Fear of Abandonment (Geopolitics)
A concept explaining how a smaller, allied nation (e.g., Israel) fears its larger patron (e.g., US) will reduce its commitment or withdraw from the region if a perceived threat (e.g., Iran's nuclear program) is 'resolved' through diplomacy, leaving the smaller nation vulnerable.
The Buffer State
A geopolitical concept where a country, even if not an ally, serves as a protective barrier between two rival powers. Saudi Arabia and other regional states now view Iran as a necessary buffer against an 'unhinged' Israel, despite their historical animosity towards the Iranian regime.
Lessons
- Recognize that revolutions are inherently disruptive and often lead to unintended, worse outcomes, as seen in Iran's 1979 revolution and subsequent civil wars in other countries.
- Prioritize diplomatic solutions and de-escalation in international conflicts, understanding that military interventions, even 'successful' ones, can set dangerous precedents and incur immense long-term costs.
- Critically evaluate the motivations behind calls for 'regime change,' especially from exiled opposition groups, and assess whether their strategies genuinely promote democracy or risk installing another authoritarian system.
- Support and empower internal reform movements within authoritarian states by strengthening civil society and economic opportunities, as these are often the backbone of sustainable democratization processes.
- Be wary of 'sugar high' successes in foreign policy, as initial victories (e.g., Venezuela regime change) can mask long-term reverberating effects and create dangerous precedents for future interventions.
Notable Moments
Trita Parsi's father, a university professor critical of the Shah, was imprisoned and tortured by the Shah's secret police (SAVAK). After the 1979 revolution, his father's name appeared on a list of those to be executed. He returned to Iran to clear his name and was imprisoned again, sharing a cell with his former jail ward from the Shah's regime. He was eventually freed by his former students, who were now running the prison.
This personal anecdote vividly illustrates the chaos, irony, and human cost of the Iranian Revolution, where former oppressors became prisoners and former students became jailers, highlighting the unpredictable nature of regime change and the deep personal impact of political upheaval.
During the final, highly technical stages of the Iran nuclear deal negotiations, the lead negotiators were not politicians like John Kerry or Javad Zarif, but nuclear physicists: Ali Akbar Salehi (MIT graduate, head of Iranian Atomic Energy Agency) and Ernest Moniz (US Energy Secretary, MIT faculty).
This underscores the extreme technical complexity and scientific rigor involved in crafting the JCPOA, suggesting that its terms were meticulously designed by experts, not merely political figures, which lends credence to its effectiveness in preventing nuclear proliferation.
The US secretly built a replica of Iran's entire nuclear program to test every new Iranian proposal during the JCPOA negotiations, simulating different centrifuge configurations to ensure Iran could not cheat.
This reveals the extraordinary lengths and scientific investment undertaken by the US to verify the deal's robustness, countering claims that the agreement was rushed or inadequate.
The head of Mossad in Iran, Eleazar Tzafrir, and a defense attaché, blended into the crowd of two million people celebrating Khomeini's return in Tehran, even holding signs of Khomeini and chanting 'Long live Khomeini' and 'Death to Israel' to avoid detection.
This remarkable historical detail highlights the audacity and operational capabilities of Israeli intelligence, demonstrating their deep understanding of the Iranian landscape even amidst revolutionary fervor, and the extreme measures taken to maintain cover.
Quotes
"The veto holding countries are never going to give it up. It's just not going to happen. In fact, most of them would probably prefer to see no reform of it at all because they benefit from having it."
"Countries are just stories. And when you really think about it, you're like, 'Oh my god, that's true.'"
"When you have a revolution, it's a it can be a burn it all down kind of moment and everything that may have involved effort or years of work or security that was insured, whatever it might be before, is gone overnight. And that's a dangerous thing."
"The problem was they didn't want the deal. They wanted the United States to take on Iran militarily, change the balance in the region in favor of Israel, and that necessitated sanctions and no agreement, regardless of what the details of those agreements were."
"This was never about enrichment. Essentially saying this was never about the nuclear issue from Israel's standpoint... No, this is about the fact that the United that Israel cannot allow the United States to become friends with a country that defines Israel as an enemy and does not recognize Israel's right to exist."
"If you are capable of preventing a war that might have killed 50,000 people, that the human rights of those 50,000 people, the right to life is also something that is important."
"The Iranian government... have produced people willing to be assets for a foreign government inside their own, including actually helping them militarily. So this is ultimately on the Iranian government itself."
"I don't think any of them frankly have shown themselves to be democratic. And part of the reason why that is crucial is not just because you need to show your democratic behavior to win support from inside the country and get defections, but it's also something you need to do to build coalitions."
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