Amb. Chas Freeman: Israel’s Free Fall on All Fronts

Recent polls indicate a dramatic 'free fall' in global public opinion towards Israel across Canada, the United States, Sweden, Spain, the Netherlands, Pakistan, Malaysia, Indonesia, and especially Turkey (97% unfavorable). This widespread negative sentiment is weakening international support, which Israel heavily relies on, particularly from the US.

Host Nima references polls showing 'free fall for Israel' in various countries, with Turkey at '97% negative, 91% very unfavorable.' Ambassador Freeman confirms Israel's dependence on international support 'is withering.'

The Zionist lobby is pushing for US legislation (H.R. 224) that would treat Israeli armed forces like members of the US armed forces, effectively merging their militaries. This move is seen as a desperate attempt to institutionalize long-term American support and bypass the diminishing ability to supply Israel through normal weapons transfers, making it 'very, very hard to oppose their military actions.'

Ambassador Freeman states, 'they are attempting to sneak some legislation through that would basically treat the Israeli armed forces like members of the US armed forces.' He calls it a 'desperate' maneuver by the Zionist lobby.

With the passing of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, who opposed WMDs, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard, which favors nuclear weapons, is now in charge. Iran views its struggle as existential and seeks to restore deterrence against future Israeli attacks. It appears to be adopting a doctrine of disproportionate response, escalating its actions, which could lead to significant incidents like the sinking of a US naval vessel.

Freeman notes, 'with the killing of the... supreme leader Ali Khamenei, who was opposed to weapons of mass destruction... the Islamic Revolutionary Guard is now in charge. And they apparently favor a nuclear weapon. That's logical. What other deterrent does Iran have?' He adds, 'Iran now appears to be addressing, accepting that doctrine as its own. And so, we're seeing an escalation.'

Prime Minister Netanyahu's political survival is tied to 'bringing down Iran' and 'smashing the Iranian state.' This personal motivation leads him to routinely insert 'poison pill proposals' into any potential US-Iran agreements, effectively sabotaging peace-making efforts and ensuring the conflict continues.

Freeman states, 'Prime Minister Netanyahu's faces an existential challenge to himself... He has staked his entire political career on bringing down Iran. On smashing the Iranian state.' He describes Netanyahu inserting 'poison pill proposals' into agreements.

The ongoing conflicts are leading to a dramatic shift in regional power, with Iran poised to control the Strait of Hormuz, giving it immense leverage over global energy supplies. This new reality will force Gulf states to cut deals with Iran and diminish Israel's previous dominance.

Robert Kagan (quoted by the host) states, 'Iran is in control of the strait... it'll be under Iranian management, which means they will control who gets in and who gets out, how quickly and at what price.' Freeman agrees, 'Iran has strengthened his position enormously... It now controls the Strait of Hormuz. It's not going to give up that control.'

The escalating regional war, particularly the potential closure of the Bab al-Mandab and Strait of Hormuz, is expected to cause a severe global energy crisis, with oil prices potentially reaching $200 a barrel by late July/early August. This will trigger a food crisis as farmers struggle with fuel and fertilizer costs, impacting less developed countries globally.

Freeman warns, 'every sign points to the continuation of the confrontation and the combat and its escalation, and no respite whatsoever for the world's energy supplies. People are talking about $200 a barrel for oil at that time.' He adds, 'the prospect therefore is for a real food crisis later on this year.'